Edison issues outlook on Carclo (CAR)

Edison Investment Research Limited
Edison Investment Research Limited: Edison issues outlook on Carclo (CAR)

03-Oct-2017 / 09:40 GMT/BST


London, UK, 3 October 2017

Edison issues outlook on Carclo (CAR)

Carclo is focusing investment on its two larger established businesses - Technical Plastics (CTP) and LED Technologies (LED). Here a differentiated offer and long-term relationships with customers provide good earnings visibility and higher probability of a sustainable return. This strategy delivered strong revenue and profits growth during FY17. Despite a temporary setback at CTP during H118, which was balanced by outperformance at LED, growth appears set to continue, underpinned by contracts with blue-chip customers.

We use a P/E-based, sum-of-the-parts methodology with three sets of sample peers drawn from the medical device manufacturing (P/E of 16.1x), automotive (mean P/E of 16.4x) and aerospace (mean P/E 20.9x) sectors to reflect the diversity of Carclo's operations. This gives an indicative valuation range of 182-193p (previously 181-191p), which is equivalent to an implied EV/EBITDA range of 8.2x-8.6x (vs peer group blended year one EV/EBITDA of 8.7x). The share price has dropped by around 13% since the AGM statement advised of short-term setbacks in the Technical Plastics division. Positive newsflow confirming the recovery in CTP should be supportive of the stock, helping to close the valuation gap.

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