BLACKROCK COMMODITIES INCOME INVESTMENT TRUST plc | |||||||||||||||||||
All information is at 30 November 2016 and unaudited. | |||||||||||||||||||
Performance at month end with net income reinvested | |||||||||||||||||||
One | Three | Six | One | Three | Five | ||||||||||||||
Month | Months | Months | Year | Years | Years | ||||||||||||||
Net asset value | 3.3% | 16.2% | 39.9% | 52.2% | -1.3% | -11.9% | |||||||||||||
Share price | 1.2% | 15.7% | 38.7% | 51.4% | -5.8% | -10.6% | |||||||||||||
Sources: Datastream, BlackRock | |||||||||||||||||||
At month end | |||||||||||||||||||
Net asset value – capital only: | 83.24p | ||||||||||||||||||
Net asset value cum income*: | 83.70p | ||||||||||||||||||
Share price: | 82.75p | ||||||||||||||||||
Discount to NAV (cum income): | 1.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
Net yield: | 6.6% | ||||||||||||||||||
Gearing - cum income: | 3.7% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total assets^^: | £107.7m | ||||||||||||||||||
Ordinary shares in issue: | 118,268,000 | ||||||||||||||||||
Gearing range (as a % of net assets): | 0-20% | ||||||||||||||||||
Ongoing charges**: | 1.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
* Includes net revenue of 0.46p. ^^ Includes current year revenue. ** Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses, excluding any interest costs and excluding taxation for the year ended 30 November 2015. |
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Sector Analysis | % Total Assets | Country Analysis | % Total Assets | ||||||||||||||||
Integrated Oil | 23.0 | Global | 48.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Diversified Mining | 20.4 | USA | 22.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Exploration & Production | 18.4 | Canada | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||
Gold | 11.4 | Latin America | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Copper | 7.7 | Africa | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Distribution | 3.6 | Europe | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Oil Services | 2.6 | Australia | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||
Silver | 2.3 | Asia | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Fertilizers | 1.8 | Net current assets | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||
Diamonds | 1.7 | ----- | |||||||||||||||||
Agriculture Science | 1.2 | 100.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Steel | 1.2 | ===== | |||||||||||||||||
Net current assets | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||
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100.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Ten Largest Investments (in % of Total Assets order) | |||||||||||||||||||
Company | Region of Risk | % Total Assets | |||||||||||||||||
First Quantum Minerals | Global | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’ | Global | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Exxon Mobil | Global | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Rio Tinto | Global | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||
BHP Billiton | Global | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
BP | Global | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Vale | Latin America | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Conocophillips | USA | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Anadarko Petroleum | USA | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Enbridge Income Fund Trust | Canada | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Commenting on the markets, Olivia Markham and Tom Holl, representing the Investment Manager noted: |
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The Company’s NAV rose by +3.3% during the month, bringing the year to date performance to +63.2% (both in GBP terms). | |||||||||||||||||||
The major news for equity markets during the month was the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Markets responded more positively than had been expected to the news, with the S&P 500 Index finishing the month up by 1.4%. Donald Trump’s borrowing plans and comments around infrastructure spend shifted market expectations towards a reflationary environment and the US 10-year yield rose rapidly to 2.4%. This led to a rotation into value and sectors which typically benefit from rising inflation such as financials and commodities. | |||||||||||||||||||
Donald Trump, reiterating his plan to focus on infrastructure investment, improved expectations around mined commodity demand and prices responded strongly, with copper, zinc and iron ore gaining +20.1%, +9.6% and +14.0% respectively for example. The mining sector also benefitted from China's economy continuing to show signs of stabilization with two separate manufacturing surveys pointing to better-than-expected growth. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures large state-owned factories, came in at 51.7 in November – matching the previous high in July 2014 and the highest since the 53.3 hit in April 2012. The official PMI was an improvement from 51.2 in October and beat analyst predictions of a 51.0 reading. At the company level, a number of mining names reported robust results and made positive steps towards returning capital shareholders. This included diversified miners Vale and Glencore reinstating their dividends and Lundin Mining initiating a dividend for the first time. | |||||||||||||||||||
The US election result benefitted sentiment towards energy shares, with Trump perceived as being supportive for oil and gas. However, it was the announcement from OPEC which was the primary news for the energy sector. The cartel announced an agreement to adjust production by 1.2mbpd, down to a targeted level of 32.5mbpd. The agreement is for 6 months starting 1st of January 2017, with an option to extend for a further 6 months. Libya and Nigeria are exempt from the deal as they currently face supply disruptions, whilst Iran is only capped from increasing production materially further. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council countries have agreed to shoulder 800kbpd of the cut. The deal is subject to an additional 600kbpd of cuts from non-OPEC countries, of which Russia has signalled it is willing to cut half, whilst Oman has also confirmed willingness to contribute. This represents OPEC’s first cut since the Global Financial Crisis and marks a move away from a strategy focused on market share at any price to one focused on market management. | |||||||||||||||||||
The announcement was met with a relatively high degree of scepticism however. Financial market participants have concerns around OPEC compliance with agreed terms, non-OPEC participants meeting the 600kbpd required cut and short-cycle production (particularly US shale) ramping and capping upside in the oil price. However, it is worth noting that there was also a high degree of scepticism when OPEC initially guided towards coordinated action back in September and OPEC have so far, defied the sceptics. In September, we took the view that the market was missing the bigger picture as we believed the fact that Saudi Arabia was driving this was key. We thought that the market was underestimating the importance of Saudi Arabia’s shift in stance, which appeared to reflect growing internal pressures related to the country’s high current account deficit and unpopular austerity measures. We believed Saudi Arabia may also have become concerned about the current level of underinvestment in the energy sector leading to a price spike towards the end of the decade causing demand destruction as countries and companies switch to competitor sources of energy. That said, whilst we were expecting a deal, the announced deal at face value is better than we anticipated. | |||||||||||||||||||
All data points are in US dollar terms unless otherwise specified. | |||||||||||||||||||
15 December 2016 | |||||||||||||||||||
ENDS | |||||||||||||||||||
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brci on the internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager’s website nor the contents of any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager’s website (or any other website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement. |