THE BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 JANUARY 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One month Since launch*
Sterling:
Share price -4.0% +3.0%
Net asset value -2.9% -3.2%
MSCI Frontiers Index -2.2% -1.0%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -0.6% -0.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index +0.01% +1.7%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar
Net asset value - capital only: 151.93c
Net asset value - cum income: 151.93c
Sterling
Net asset value - capital only: 94.85p
Net asset value - cum income: 94.85p
Share price: 103.00p
Total assets: £89.9m
Premium: 8.6%
Gearing: 0%
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 23.6 Saudi Arabia 13.5
Industrials 16.2 Qatar 12.4
Energy 14.0 Nigeria 9.7
Consumer Staples 10.4 Ukraine 9.1
Materials 9.5 Kazakhstan 9.0
Consumer Discretionary 6.9 United Arab Emirates 7.0
Telecommunications 6.0 Iraq 5.1
Utilities 4.0 Romania 5.1
Health Care 1.7 Kuwait 4.9
Net current assets 7.7 Panama 3.0
Oman 3.0
Jordan 2.9
Croatia 1.9
Slovenia 1.8
Other 3.9
Net current assets 7.7
----- -----
100.0 100.0
===== =====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference
(CFDs)
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Abdullah Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
Copa Holdings Panama
DNO International Iraq
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
Kernel Holdings Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Saudi Arabian Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index was flat in January. Strong performance from the
majority of frontier markets, especially Eastern European and Sub-Saharan
African markets was offset by poor performance from Middle Eastern markets,
which suffered from contagion concerns from political unrest escalating across
Tunisia and Egypt.
Romania outperformed strongly. The listing of the Fondul Proprietatea, now the
largest stock trading on the Romanian exchange, increased investor attention on
a market that been ignored for the last 2 years and is currently trading on
very low multiples. Ukraine and Kazakhstan showed strong performance benefiting
from the stronger oil price and increasing signs of a turnaround in their
respective domestic economies. The Nigerian market also performed strongly as
Goodluck Jonathan was confirmed as the PDP candidate for the elections (which
he is widely expected to win) squashing any fears of derailment of the current
banking sector and infrastructure reforms ongoing in Nigeria.
Tunisia was the worst performing Frontier market as President Ben Ali was
ousted from power on the back of mass civilian protests. Kuwait also saw a
negative performance on the back of political tensions resurfacing and a
further delay in the proposed merger between Mobile Telecommunications Company
(Zain) and Etisalat.
The Energy and Materials sectors were the strongest performers while the
weakest returns came from Technology and Telecoms stocks.
Performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust NAV fell by 0.6% in January. Stocks
that contributed positively to performance this month included Saudi retailer,
Al Othaim, which rose following the announcement of very strong Q4 results.
Ukrainian agriculture company, Kernel, also contributed positively to returns,
benefitting from an increase in the price of soft commodities. The fund also
benefited from a zero position in Bangladesh, where the stock market has seen a
dramatic correction from highly overvalued levels reached mid December. We
believe that the risks remain to the downside in Bangladesh and stay zero
weighted.
Detractors from performance included Arabtec, a UAE based construction company,
which fell following a disappointing trading update and CETV, a Romanian media
company, which fell following the release of disappointing viewing figures.
The Company suffered into month end from perceived contagion risks across the
Middle East from the events unfolding in North Africa and as a result has seen
strong performance month to date as these fears have rightly dissipated and the
stocks rebounded from oversold levels.
Activity
The Company is currently holding positions in 44 stocks across 18 markets. As
of 31st January, over 92% of the fund had been invested, well in excess of the
level anticipated at this stage of the investment process.
Outlook
It is our view that Frontier Markets are the most attractive opportunity within
the broader emerging market universe. The combination of the countries in the
world with the fastest growth, the best demographics and the lowest debt/GDP
ratios should prove to be highly supportive. We note that equity valuations in
the investment trust are low compared to both emerging markets and developed
markets despite the far higher corporate earnings growth profile. Following a
period of significant under performance, we would not be surprised to see
capital allocation towards the asset class during 2011.
The Company is diversified across many frontier markets and as a result any
single event. In respect to recent events in Egypt and Tunisia, we continue to
highlight, as we stressed pre launch, that there are a number of Emerging/
Frontier Market countries where we feel that the political risks are
insufficiently priced and we would continue to avoid such markets. The Company
has minimal exposure to Egypt, holding solely positions in companies which
operate across the Middle East and North African region and no exposure to
Tunisia and as a result has seen little impact on the Company's NAV from the
previous month's events.
The portfolio is overweight Saudi Arabia, where we expect strong earnings
growth particularly in the consumer and infrastructure sectors. Oil prices
above $60 will allow government spending to continue with the aim of increasing
private sector employment and the diversification of the economy away from the
oil sector. Qatar's natural resource endowment and infrastructure spending
plans present investment opportunities at attractive valuations. The case for
Qatar has been further enhanced by award of the FIFA 2022 World Cup. We also
think that Nigeria is set to outperform on the back of continued reform in the
banking sector. The Company will remain underweight Kuwait, where valuations
look expensive and political outlook is becoming more challenged.
Overall, we strongly believe that the outlook for frontier markets as an asset
class is robust and we see significant upside for the holdings in the Company.
As such we will continue to move towards a fully invested position with a
particular focus on Sub-Saharan African and Asian frontier markets.
25 February 2011
ENDS
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