Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 28 February 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end is calculated with income reinvested
One *Since
Month Launch
Sterling:
Share price -2.7% 0.3%
Net asset value -4.6% -7.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index -8.1% -9.0%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -3.1% -3.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index -6.7% -5.1%
Sources: BlackRock, Standard & Poor's Micropal
Performance data is calculated based on cum income NAVs with income reinvested.
*17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar
Net asset value - capital only: 146.71c
Net asset value - cum income: 147.25c
Sterling
Net asset value - capital only: 90.20p
Net asset value - cum income: 90.53p
Share price: 100.25p
Total assets (including income): £85.8m
Premium to capital only NAV: 11.1%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Sector Analysis Gross assets (%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 24.2 Nigeria 12.2
Industrials 18.9 Qatar 11.4
Energy 14.9 Ukraine 10.6
Consumer staples 11.9 Saudi Arabia 9.8
Telecommunications 7.9 Kazakhstan 9.6
Consumer discretionary 6.8 United Arab Emirates 7.1
Materials 6.2 Romania 5.6
Utilities 3.5 Iraq 5.1
Health care 2.2 Kuwait 4.7
Net current assets 3.5 Croatia 3.9
Panama 3.5
Jordan 2.7
Oman 1.9
Slovenia 1.9
Other 6.5
Net current assets 3.5
----- -----
Total 100.0 100.0
----- -----
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Abdullah Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Copa Holdings Panama
DNO International Iraq
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazahstan
Kernal Holdings Ukraine
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment Manager
noted;
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index was down 6.7% in February. Eastern European markets
were the best performing frontier markets over the month led by Ukraine and
Romania, up 18% and 6% respectively. Although not quite in this league, African
markets also had a good month, with both Nigeria and Kenya continuing their
steady outperformance of the frontiers index. The worst performing markets over
the month were Bangladesh and Vietnam, down -29% and -15% respectively.
Bangladeshi stocks continued their free fall from very expensive levels, whilst
Vietnam suffered from a further currency devaluation and aggressive measures
taken by the government to cool the economy.
The Middle Eastern markets had a difficult month as "days of rage" took place
across a number of different countries causing varying degrees of disruption
and the whole region was marked down indiscriminately. In the final week of the
month, the situation in Libya escalated to a critical level as Colonel Gaddafi
resorted to armed violence in his efforts to quell protests. In Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and the UAE markets performed poorly falling 7%, 8% and 9% respectively
on fears that protests against the governments would start there as well.
At the end of the month both the Tunisian market and the West African regional
exchange were closed with no guidance given as to when the markets would reopen
for trading. We would highlight that the Company has no exposure to either
market.
Performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust NAV fell by 3.1% in February, a
disappointing absolute return but showing strong relative performance against
the index.
The Company was positioned well across geographies. Overweight positions in
Nigeria and Kazakhstan together with zero-weighted positions in Bangladesh and
Vietnam contributed strongly to performance.
Stocks that outperformed this month included Kazakh energy stock, Kazmunaigas,
which benefited from higher oil prices and Botswanan diamond producer,
Firestone Diamonds, which rose after they started production at the Liqhobong
mine in Lesotho.
Detractors from performance included Galfar Engineering, an Omani construction
company which fell as the Middle East protests spread to Oman, and Dubai based
contractor, Arabtec, which is now trading back at March 2009 lows after
reporting worse than expected results.
Activity
The Company is currently holding positions in 44 stocks across 17 markets. As
of 28 February, over 96% of the Company is invested. We would anticipate that the
Company will be fully invested by the end of March.
Early in the month, the Company reduced exposure to Saudi Arabia and Qatar as the
Company took profits on stocks which had contributed positively to performance
since launch and slightly reduced its risk exposure to the region.
Outlook
It is our view that Frontier Markets are the most attractive opportunity within
the broader emerging market universe. The combination of the countries in the
world with the fastest growth, the best demographics and the lowest debt/GDP
ratios should prove to be highly supportive. We note that equity valuations in
the Company's portfolio are low compared to both emerging markets and developed
markets despite the far higher corporate earnings growth profile. Following a
period of significant under performance, we would not be surprised to see
capital allocation towards the asset class during 2011.
Clearly we are following events in the Middle East very closely. Our
expectation is that Saudi Arabia and Qatar, given their wealth, are unlikely to
be impacted by the challenges impacting North Africa. Following sharp falls we
believe that valuations are extremely compelling. We remain cautious on the
outlook for those markets where a regime change has taken place or is likely to
take place, such as Tunisia. However, we believe that the sell off across the
Middle East has been indiscriminate and would highlight the UAE in this
context, which is currently trading at a 7 year low. At a stock level, Al
Othaim, the largest food retailer in Saudi Arabia which has seen revenue
Compound Annual Growth Rate ("CAGR") of 25% over the last 5 years and is
trading on a PE of only 9x and Qatari utility stock, QEWS, which generates ROEs
of 40% and is trading on a 7.5x PE, look outstanding value. That said should
our relatively benign political view change, we will act in shareholders'
interests and reduce the Company's exposure to the Middle East region.
The Company will remain underweight Kuwait, where valuations are expensive and
growth prospects are less compelling and Bangladesh, where despite the
significant market correction, stocks still look overpriced. In contrast we
continue to look to add positions in South East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Overall, we strongly believe that the outlook for frontier markets as an asset
class is robust and we see significant upside for the holdings in the Company.
4 March 2011
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.