Portfolio Update
THE BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 JULY 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One month Three months Since launch*
Sterling:
Share price -4.9% -8.8% -12.9%
Net asset value -4.9% -6.4% -11.1%
MSCI Frontiers Index -4.6% -5.5% -10.9%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -2.8% -7.9% -6.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index -2.5% -7.0% -6.2%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar
Net asset value - capital only: 139.51c
Net asset value - cum income: 142.99c
Sterling
Net asset value - capital only: 84.99p
Net asset value - cum income: 87.11p
Share price: 87.13p
Total assets (including income): £82.6m
Premium to capital only NAV: 2.5%
Gearing: 0%
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.3 Nigeria 14.2
Industrials 21.7 Qatar 13.3
Energy 12.6 Ukraine 9.7
Consumer Staples 12.1 Saudi Arabia 9.7
Materials 7.9 Kazakhstan 9.3
Telecommunications 7.1 United Arab Emirates 7.6
Consumer Discretionary 5.6 Kuwait 6.2
Utilities 3.8 Romania 5.4
Healthcare 3.5 Iraq 5.3
Short positions -2.8 Croatia 4.2
Net current liabilities -0.8 Panama 3.2
Jordan 3.2
Oman 2.4
Pakistan 2.2
Slovenia 2.1
Pan Africa 2.1
Other 3.5
Short positions -2.8
Net current liabilities -0.8
----- -----
100.0 100.0
===== =====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference
(CFDs)
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Mouwasat Medical Saudi Arabia
Copa Holdings Panama
First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Saudi Arabian Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment
Manager noted;
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index fell by 2.5% in July. Bangladesh was the best
performing market rising 7% over the month. Some of the smaller Eastern
European markets had a strong month rallying from oversold levels. Estonia,
Ukraine and Slovenia were the most notable, rising 6%, 2% and 2% respectively.
This was by no means a consistent trend across the European markets: Lithuania
fell 5% and Romania 4%.
Kazakhstan fell a further 7%. President Nazarbayev, who has been in power since
the nation received its independence in 1991, was hospitalised which reignited
fears over the lack of apparent succession planning. Vietnam also performed
poorly, sliding 8%, as a number of companies reported results below
expectations.
The Middle East region had a muted month with market returns mainly clustered
around the benchmark with the exception of Kuwait which continued its downward
trend, falling nearly 5%.
Portfolio performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust NAV fell by 2.8%, underperforming the
MSCI Frontiers index by 0.3%. Year to date the Company's NAV has outperformed
the Index by 1.2% (all calculations are in US$ terms with net income
reinvested).
Asset allocation between markets was good. Overweight positions in Nigeria were
a strong driver of returns as banks reported exceptional year-on-year earnings
growth. The Company benefitted from the underweight in Kuwait, a market where
despite the underperformance year to date, stocks continue to look expensive.
Remaining zero-weighted in Kenya also continued to be the right decision as the
Central Bank cut the discount rate by 1.75% on July 12th, reversing a decision
it had taken only two weeks previously, despite little sign of current high
inflation moderating. In fact, inflation accelerated to 14.5% in June, the
highest reading for more than two years and looks to be heading higher as the
drought in East Africa continues.
Top performing stocks included Nigerian bank, Zenith Bank, which reported
second quarter results above analyst expectations, generating an annualised
return on equity of 17%. This bank is now trading on a price/earnings ratio of
8, and just above 1x book value with a historic dividend yield of 6%. It
remains a core holding. MHP, a Ukrainian agricultural stock, rose after
reporting a 14% rise in year on year poultry sales, again beating analyst
expectations. The Company also made gains from a short position in a Vietnamese
financial stock which reported results below expectations due to losses on its
investment book and rising provisions.
Being zero-weighted in Bangladesh detracted from performance. However, we do
not expect to change our stance here given current market valuations and it has
been gratifying to see the market sell off since the month end. Other positions
which detracted from performance included Saudi Arabian miner, Amiantit, which
reported a 15% decline in profits for the second quarter, missing analyst
forecasts and Slovenian Bank, Nova Kreditna, which sold off in sympathy with
Western European financials.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 44 long positions and 4 short positions in
stocks across 21 markets. Over the month, the Company increased exposure to
diamond producer, Firestone Diamonds, which raised money to fund the
rehabilitation of their Lesotho plant.
The Company sold its position in Petro Rabigh, a Saudi Arabian petrochemical
stock, preserving profits as the outlook for the industry weakened in the face
of declining global growth.
Outlook
These are proving to be turbulent times in markets with politicians in the US
and Europe arguing over major debt problems and the rate of growth of the
Chinese economy slowing. Many investors are looking for safe havens which will
be immune from global economic contagion. This seems perfectly sensible but
many of these so-called `defensive assets' may be anything but safe. They are
often extremely expensive assets, with minimal yield, and their main upside is
the hope that someone else will pay an even higher price for them in the
future. This alone should make any long-term investor sceptical of their
ability to out-perform going forward.
Meanwhile, within our frontiers markets, there is a wide range of
opportunities, on attractive valuations and offering strong growth prospects.
Levels of sovereign debt are low and economic growth is much faster than in
developed economies. Equity valuations in the Company's portfolio holdings
remain attractive compared to both emerging markets and developed markets.
The Company remains overweight Nigeria where we find stocks that are seeing
strong earnings growth and have compelling valuations; we hold banks that are
trading on forward PE's of 7-8x. The Trust has significant positions in
Romania. Since joining the EU in 2007, Romania has implemented a number of
necessary structural economic reforms.
In Saudi Arabia, we are confident that the political status quo will be
maintained and that this stability will allow the current trends of increased
consumer spending and mobilisation of infrastructure projects will continue. In
this context current valuations remain compelling.
11 August 2011
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.