BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 29 February 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six Year Since
month months months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price 6.4% 10.5% 4.8% 10.2% -18.8%
Net asset value 5.1% 8.4% 5.2% 8.1% -13.2%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 1.3% 0.3% -2.1% 0.3% -16.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 4.7% 14.8% 7.3% 14.8% -2.6%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 6.4% 10.2% 3.3% 11.2% -11.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.5% 1.9% -3.9% 3.1% -14.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 6.0% 16.6% 5.3% 18.0% -0.3%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 132.18c
Net asset value - cum income: 132.77c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 82.74p
Net asset value - cum income: 83.11p
Share price: 79.25p
Total assets (including income): £78.8m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 4.6%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 2.4%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 30.5 Qatar 14.4
Industrials 17.1 Saudi Arabia 12.9
Energy 13.9 Nigeria 12.7
Consumer Staples 13.2 Kazakhstan 12.3
Telecommunications 11.8 United Arab Emirates 8.3
Utilities 4.5 Ukraine 7.6
Materials 4.4 Kuwait 5.7
Healthcare 4.0 Argentina 4.9
Consumer Discretionary 3.9 Croatia 4.4
Technology 0.6 Iraq 3.4
----- Bangladesh 3.2
Total 103.9 Pan Africa 2.4
----- Kenya 2.3
Short positions -5.2 Panama 2.0
===== Pakistan 2.0
Vietnam 2.0
Romania 1.2
Oman 1.2
Slovenia 1.0
-----
103.9
=====
Short positions -5.2
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.4 31.5 30.6 31.7 31.8 30.9 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 99.9 103.2 103.3 103.6 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9
Short 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2
Gross 101.9 106.1 106.0 106.4 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1
Net 97.9 100.3 100.6 100.8 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index rose modestly in February, returning 2.5% (on a US$
basis with net income reinvested). The modest headline return masked a
substantial divergence in performance between underlying countries ranging from
Bangladesh which rose almost 20% over the month to Argentina which fell more
than 17%.
Middle Eastern markets were also strong with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi
Arabia up 14% and 10% respectively. In the UAE, the ongoing economic recovery
has been reflected in the recent results announcements from the real estate and
financial sectors beating analysts' expectations. This, coupled with increased
dividends, has boosted investor confidence seen by the increase in volumes
trading on the market, currently an average of $300m compared with $7m a day a
few months ago. Saudi Arabia has had a remarkable start to the year with
volumes, on occasion, surpassing that of Turkey and Russia combined. The
market has been driven up by the increasing participation of retail investors,
improving domestic liquidity conditions and a number of companies reporting
better than expected dividends. It is noteworthy that new bank credit
extension for the month of January in Saudi Arabia was the highest for almost
three years.
Argentina was the weakest performer in February, falling nearly 20%. Despite
the undoubted potential of the Argentine economy, investor confidence is being
undermined by government policy. Increased regulation in the banking sector
and the threat of nationalization of the country's largest energy company have
weighed heavily on the market.
Portfolio Performance
The Company again recorded very strong performance over the month with the NAV
per share increasing by 6.4% outperforming the MSCI Frontiers Index by 3.9%
(all performance calculations are on a US$ basis with net income reinvested).
The Company was well-positioned geographically. Iraqi stocks rose strongly as
speculation surrounding the intentions of large Western oil companies
increased. The prospect of an oil law and an environment conducive to
exploration investment is driving interest in what is one of the world's last
major under-explored onshore oil regions.
The Company also benefited from a substantial overweight in Kazakhstan.
Positions in Kazmunaigas contributed strongly to performance as the stock rose
from a very low valuation following the resolution of strikes which impacted
production last year. The macro-economic situation in Kazakhstan continues to
improve with the banking sector seeing further normalization and a return to
growth.
Other stocks that contributed to performance included holdings in the Nigerian
banks. The reduction in fuel subsidies that the government enacted last month
will reduce pressure on fiscal spending allowing the government to divert
investment towards much needed infrastructure programs. Banking stocks rallied
from cheap valuations as investors placed greater confidence in ability of the
government to continue to enact needed reforms.
Detracting from performance were holdings in Ukrainian energy stock, JKX, which
remained unloved by investors despite the significant oil price rally and
Argentinean energy stock, YPF, which fell despite reporting the discovery of
one of the largest shale oil fields in the world with a potential resource of
26bn barrels after relations between the company and the government
deteriorated.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 45 long positions and 4 short positions in
stocks across 22 markets.
In February, the Company initiated a new position in Nigerian financial, United
Bank Africa. The stock was trading at 0.2 times book value and 2x price to
pre-provision profit. The purchase of the stock was particularly well timed and
it has risen over 50% since, highlighting the opportunities which exist in
Frontier Markets where due diligence and detailed fundamental analysis can
yield high returns on a risk-adjusted basis.
We took some profits in Panamanian airline Copa. The stock has performed well
reflecting recognition of the company's strategic position in Latin America. We
remain confident in the prospect for Copa but are mindful that high oil prices
will prove a headwind to even the most robust business model.
The Company also fully exited its position in Iraqi oil producer Gulf Keystone
believing that the strong company potential was now fully recognized by the
market.
Outlook
We remain positive on Saudi Arabia. Whilst we are aware of some rising
geopolitical concerns, we continue to believe that the investment outlook for
Saudi Arabia is extremely positive supported by high twin current account and
fiscal surpluses. Stock market performance in recent years has lagged
macroeconomic strength due to subdued banking credit trends and lack of retail
participation. The recent acceleration in credit growth is thus an enormous
tailwind for continued market strength. Saudi government spending and
liquidity trends will continue to be supported by high oil prices and record
production, with oil output in Saudi Arabia averaging the highest level over
the last two decades. The market is also beginning to open up to foreign
investors and we believe that this will drive a further re-rating in what is
currently an undervalued market.
The Company has continued to increase its exposure to Asian Frontier Markets
which now represent more than 7% of the portfolio. We believe that these
markets are well positioned to see strong structural growth over the next
decade and that having seen very weak performance across their respective
markets last year, valuations are now compelling.
We continue to believe in the long-term structural growth story across Frontier
Markets which we expect to be driven by stocks on cheap valuations trading in
deeply inefficient markets.
12 March 2012
ENDS
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