Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 June 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price -5.2% -11.8% 3.0% -17.1% -24.0%
Net asset value -4.5% -9.5% 0.9% -13.3% -18.9%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -2.3% -5.0% -2.5% -13.2% -19.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 1.9% -7.2% 3.0% -14.0% -12.7%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -2.7% -11.2% 1.9% -15.3% -18.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -0.5% -6.8% -1.6% -15.2% -18.7%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.9% -8.9% 3.9% -16.0% -12.2%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 117.71c
Net asset value - cum income: 120.51c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 75.05p
Net asset value - cum income: 76.84p
Share price: 73.38p
Total assets (including income): £72.8m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 4.5%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.6%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.6 Nigeria 15.6
Industrials 15.6 Qatar 13.9
Consumer Staples 13.4 Kazakhstan 10.9
Telecommunications 11.3 United Arab Emirates 10.2
Energy 10.7 Saudi Arabia 8.1
Healthcare 5.0 Kuwait 6.2
Utilities 4.5 Ukraine 6.1
Consumer Discretionary 3.2 Vietnam 4.4
Materials 3.2 Croatia 4.1
Technology 0.7 Bangladesh 2.9
----- Iraq 2.8
Total 97.2 Argentina 2.6
----- Panama 2.6
Short positions -2.6 Pan Africa 2.1
===== Kenya 1.7
Algeria 1.6
Slovenia 0.7
Romania 0.7
-----
97.2
=====
Short positions -2.6
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2
Short 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6
Gross 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8
Net 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
National Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market performance
In June, the MSCI Frontier Market index returned -0.5% in USD terms, lagging
global Emerging Markets which were up 4%. Sentiment improved globally as the
Eurozone announced measures to contain immediate financial stress, including
the provision of funds for Spanish bank recapitalization, and proposals to ease
conditions for countries receiving aid from the European Stability Mechanism
(ESM). Oil prices also continued their decline in June, before rebounding
strongly towards the end of the month. As a consequence, energy exporting
Frontier Markets underperformed, while markets geared to peripheral European
risk outperformed.
Kenya was a strong performer in June, rising 5%, as investors cheered the
ongoing decline in inflation and currency stabilization, following stringent
tightening efforts by the central bank in 2011. The combination of falling
energy prices and rising crop output (after a drought in 2011) are a positive
tailwind for inflation. We however caution that the Kenyan banking system has
yet to fully witness the asset quality risks inherent in the aftermath of a
consumer credit and real estate lending boom, with annual credit growth peaking
at 35% in 2011. The long-term outlook for Kenya is however favorable, as a
trading and commercial hub for the wider East African region, buoyed by recent
oil discoveries.
Most energy exporting markets performed poorly in June due to the deterioration
in energy prices. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Qatar all shed between 3% and 4% in
June. The announcement of the death of Crown Prince Nayef in Saudi Arabia
reminded investors of succession risks. However, domestic confidence and
loyalty to the regime remains high and there are few immediate pressures for
comprehensive political change. The Qatari market continued to suffer from
foreign outflows amid low volumes and sentiment remained poor despite the
recent revival in domestic deposit and lending growth.
Portfolio Performance
The Company's NAV returned -2.7% in June, underperforming the MSCI Frontiers
Index by 2.2% (all calculations on a US$ basis with net income reinvested).
The Company's holdings in Kazakh financial Halyk Bank, Nigerian financial UBA
and Iraqi Energy Company DNO were the largest detractors in June. The Company
remains confident in the underlying operations of these companies despite their
recent share price weakness. DNO recently announced a positive operational
update, after a successful well test in the Peshkabir field in Kurdistan and
resumption of drilling operations in Yemen. Halyk Bank and UBA's share prices
have recovered strongly thus far in July, rising more than 20%.
The Company's holdings in Ukrainian agricultural companies, MHP and Kernel
contributed positively to performance in June. Share prices of both companies
rebounded strongly from their recent lows. The Company's meaningful holding in
Kuwaiti Telecom company, NMTC (also known as Wataniya) was a positive
contributor to performance. More significantly, the Qatari state owned telecoms
company, Qatar Telecom, has moved to attain full ownership of Wataniya, with an
offer to acquire 47.5% of the company it does not own. The stock was suspended
following the announcement, with the offer being considered by the Kuwaiti
capital markets authority. Although there is no certainty that an agreement
may be reached, the Company believes that the move highlights the underlying
value in Wataniya and expects the transaction, if concluded, to be profitable
to the Company.
Activity
In June, the Company fully exited its position in the Pakistani industrial
company, Lucky Cement, following strong share price performance and uncertainty
over the company's plans to acquire a 75% stake in ICI Pakistan.
The Company reduced its position in Ukrainian energy company, JKX. The company
is unlikely to be free cash flow generative, as initially anticipated, in spite
of rising production bolstered by the start-up of the company's Russian
plant. The Company added to its position in Ukrainian poultry company, MHP,
taking advantage of recent share price weakness in spite of MHP's strong
operating performance and cheap valuations, with the company valued at less
than a 5x price to earnings ratio.
The Company also initiated short positions in European and UK listed oil and
gas services companies with predominant exposure to Middle East and Africa. The
Company believes these stocks are materially overpriced relative to peers and
that analyst's earnings forecasts are simply too optimistic failing to take
into consideration declining backlog coverage and risks to margins.
Outlook
Global equity markets are suffering from an abject lack of conviction, with
most investors seeking perceived 'safe havens' and shunning risk assets.
Sovereign bond yields in several developed markets are at multi-century lows
and the spread between US dividend yields and Treasury yields are at their
narrowest since the 1950s.
Amidst these deflationary concerns, the majority of Frontier Markets stand out
for their resilient growth prospects and low levels of sovereign debt. For
instance, it is noteworthy that despite a sharp rise in fuel prices and double
digit inflation, the Nigerian economy posted a respectable six percent annual
GDP growth in the first quarter. The Company has a significant overweight
position in Nigeria, where financials are trading on forward price-earnings
ratios of just 5-6x with 7-9% dividend yields.
The Company remains bullish on Qatar. Foreign investors have exited the market
on near-term concerns over timing and mobilization of major infrastructure
projects. The Qatar equity market witnessed significant foreign participation
post the 2008-09 global financial crisis in contrast to other frontier markets.
Stock market volumes have fallen 40% year to date compared to 2011 and the
market has absorbed in excess of US$300mn of net foreign selling. The Company
believes that the Qatari government remains committed to domestic
infrastructure spending despite the uncertainty over the timing of execution.
Several of the Company's holdings offer outstanding value with high dividend
and free cashflow yields. For example, Qatar Electricity and Water, is one of
the cheapest utilities in the world, valued at a price/earnings ratio of just
9.5x and a 6% dividend yield.
In an environment where global growth is slowing and monetary policy remains
loose with record low interest rates, the Company believes several frontier
markets will benefit from sizeable capital flows. Frontier equity valuations
remain cheap, both relative to their own history and in comparison to emerging
and developed markets. A number of our holdings have continued to deliver
strong and sustainable operating performance, but have seen their share prices
decline severely on risk aversion. The team will continue to exploit the
disconnect between short-term share price fluctuations and the underlying
operational outlook of portfolio holdings.
18 July 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.