Portfolio Update
THE BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 APRIL 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Since
month months launch*
Sterling:
Share price 5.5% -7.3% -4.5%
Net asset value -0.8% -1.9% -5.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index 0.8% -4.7% -5.7%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 3.3% 2.2% 1.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index 4.9% -0.8% 0.9%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end:
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 152.99c
Net asset value - cum income: 155.23c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 91.72p
Net asset value - cum income: 93.06p
Share price: 95.50p
Total assets (including income): £88.2m
Premium to capital only NAV: 4.1%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 26.7 Nigeria 13.0
Industrials 20.6 Qatar 11.8
Energy 13.7 Ukraine 10.1
Consumer Staples 11.8 Saudi Arabia 10.0
Materials 7.3 Kazakhstan 8.3
Telecommunications 6.0 United Arab Emirates 6.9
Consumer Discretionary 5.5 Romania 6.1
Healthcare 3.2 Kuwait 5.1
Utilities 3.1 Iraq 5.0
Net current assets 2.1 Croatia 4.4
----- Panama 3.7
100.0 Jordan 3.1
===== Pakistan 2.1
Oman 2.1
Botswana 2.1
Pan Africa 2.0
Slovenia 1.9
Other 0.2
Net current assets 2.1
-----
100.0
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference
(CFDs)
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Abdullah Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Al Mouwasat Medical Saudi Arabia
Central European Media Romania
Copa Holdings Panama
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment
Manager noted;
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index was up 4.9% in April, outperforming both MSCI Emerging
and Developed markets. Returns were strong across regions, with sub Saharan
African markets rising most as investors were attracted by the low valuations
found in this region. Kenya was the best performing market, up 8.6%, with the
market rebounding after having been one of the worst performing markets in the
index in the first quarter of 2011.
The UAE market also had a good month, up 8.1%. Investors returned to the market
as companies reported better than expected Q1 results across the board creating
expectations that the country will finally emerge from the financial crisis
which hit in 2008. Romania continued to do well, up 8.1% on the back of
improved macroeconomic data which showed that measures implemented by the
government over the last 12 months are starting to take effect.
Bangladesh was down another -4.6% after having attempted to rally last month
and has now fallen 32.1% YTD. Even the announcement of a market support fund by
the government was insufficient to stem the continued decline in what remains
an overvalued market. The Argentinean market, down -3.3%, suffered on fears
that the continued increase in popularity that Christina de Kirchner is seeing
may be sufficient for her left-leaning party to triumph at the polls later in
the year.
Performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust NAV rose by 3.3% in April,
underperforming the Index for the first month since the Company was launched.
The Company was well positioned across geographies, especially in South America
where an overweight position in Panama airline stock, Copa Airlines,
contributed positively following the release of strong Q1 passenger numbers and
the portfolio benefited from a large underweight in Argentina where stock prices
continued to fall from high valuation levels.
The large underweight position in Kuwait hurt the Company this month. Despite the
sudden death of Nasser Al Kharafi, chairman of a number of listed companies and
despite a raft of poor results, the market still managed to be one of the best
performing in Frontier Markets this month. It is currently trading on richer valuation
multiples and has a lower long term growth profile than the majority of markets
in the region and as such we will continue to maintain a large underweight
position to this market.
Top stocks this month included Botswanan diamond miner, Firestone Diamonds,
which rose after reporting higher expected than expected realised prices from
its diamond tender with stones from its Liqhobong mine realising $181/carat, an
increase of 85% from December 2010. Saudi Arabian health care company, Mouwasat
Medical Services, reported results above analyst expectations for the first
quarter 2011 and guided to a strong growth outlook for the rest of the year.
Relative detractors over the month included Slovenian bank, Nova KMB, where
concerns surrounding an impending capital raising overshadowed growth in net
income for 2010 and Commercial Bank of Qatar which fell as the government
announced new measures to curb retail lending which may hurt profitability.
Activity
The Company is currently holding 51 long positions and 2 short positions in
stocks across 19 markets. Over the month the Company has increased exposure to
Nigeria on the view that stocks were slow to recover following the re-election
of popular incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, in presidential elections. The Company
added to positions in a Saudi retailer, Al Othaim, and Ukrainian agricultural
company, MHP. The Company introduced two short positions, one in a Syrian company
as political tension in Syria continued to increase and a benign outcome looked
ever more unlikely and one in a telecom stock where valuations look especially
unattractive.
Outlook
It is our view that Frontier Markets offer the most attractive opportunity
within the broader emerging market universe. The combination of the countries
in the world with the fastest growth, the best demographics and the lowest debt
/GDP ratio should prove to be highly supportive. We note that equity valuations
in the investment trust are low compared to both emerging markets and developed
markets despite the far higher corporate earnings growth prospects. Following a
period of significant under performance, we would not be surprised to see
increased capital allocation towards the asset class during 2011.
The Company will remain overweight Nigeria where we continue to think that
valuations look compelling. Elections in Nigeria have been concluded and the
incumbent, Jonathan, has been re-elected as President. A bad bank has been set
up, AMCON, which will buy non-performing loans from banks allowing them to
redirect their balance sheets towards productive lending. Banking penetration
in Nigeria is among the lowest level in the world with bank loans to GDP
standing at only 34%. Given the strong GDP growth forecast, which is expected
to remain above 6% for the next 5 years, we are very positive on the Nigerian
banking sector which is trading on under 10x forward earnings multiples with
dividend yields above 5%.
In Ukraine, we continue to be impressed by the new government's approach to
tackling decade-old issues and the resurgence of the country's industrial and
agricultural sectors. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is emerging from a four year
financial crisis and the companies in the materials and energy sectors are
being boosted by record commodity prices. We will remain overweight both of
these countries.
The Company will remain underweight Bangladesh where despite the significant
market correction stocks still look expensive. By contrast, following
significant underperformance year to date, the other Asian markets are starting
to look more attractive and we are looking to add to positions in South East
Asia.
Overall, we believe that the outlook for frontier markets as an asset class is
robust and we see significant upside for the holdings in the fund.
19 May 2011
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.