Portfolio Update
THE BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 AUGUST 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Since
month months launch*
Sterling:
Share price -11.1% -16.4% -22.5%
Net asset value -7.1% -12.2% -17.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index -4.4% -7.3% -15.1%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -7.9% -13.2% -13.8%
MSCI Frontiers Index -5.1% -8.3% -11.3%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 128.22c
Net asset value - cum income: 131.71c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 78.75p
Net asset value - cum income: 80.90p
Share price: 77.50p
Total assets £76.7m
Discount to capital only NAV: 1.6%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 30.9 Qatar 15.8
Industrials 21.3 Nigeria 13.8
Consumer Staples 13.4 Kazakhstan 11.4
Energy 11.2 Ukraine 9.6
Telecommunications 7.9 Saudi Arabia 9.4
Materials 7.9 United Arab Emirates 8.2
Consumer Discretionary 5.3 Kuwait 6.6
Utilities 4.7 Croatia 4.9
Healthcare 2.6 Romania 4.6
Short positions -7.8 Iraq 4.0
Net current assets 2.6 Jordan 3.3
----- Panama 3.3
100.0 Oman 2.4
----- Pakistan 2.3
Slovenia 2.0
Other 3.6
Short positions -7.8
Net current assets 2.6
-----
100.0
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Arab Technical United Arab Emirates
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment
Manager noted;
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index returned -5.1% in August (on a USD, total return
basis) outperforming global equities which fell by over 7%. Equity markets were
very volatile in August with sharp falls on weak economic data and concerns
over growth in developed markets. The Eastern European region weighed on
performance due to concerns over contagion from worsening stresses within the
Eurozone: Ukraine fell 18%, Bulgaria 13% and Romania 9%.
Middle Eastern markets were the most defensive during the month, highlighting
the contrast between improving economic projections in this region and the
outlook for developed markets. Qatar was one of the best performing markets
falling only 1%, albeit with low volumes during Ramadan.
African markets had a mixed month. Nigeria and Kenya underperformed, falling by
around 13% on increased risk aversion.
Portfolio performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust had a disappointing month falling
-7.9% and underperforming the MSCI Frontiers index by 2.8% (all calculations
are given on a USD total return basis).
On a geographical basis, whilst the Company benefitted from overweight
positions in Qatar and Jordan and underweight positions in Argentina and Kenya,
these were insufficient to offset relative losses from positions in Ukraine,
Romania and Nigeria. In Ukraine, our portfolio suffered from risk aversion as
investors sold exposure to peripheral European markets. Despite the falls, we
remain confident in the stocks that the Company holds and would highlight
chicken producer, MHP, which fell 23% in August despite releasing results above
analyst expectations with net revenues up 25% year on year. The largest stock
detractor from performance was Romanian television company, Central European
Media, which is the market leading broadcaster across the region but which
suffered in the weaker market environment along with other leveraged stocks. We
would note that the controlling shareholder, Time Warner, bought shares earlier
this year at $19.45, a significant premium to the current share price of $10.
Nigerian bank, Zenith Bank, fell back despite strong results in July and looks
significantly undervalued on one times book value given continued strong loan
growth.
Stock selection in Qatar was especially notable. Shares in Commercial Bank of
Qatar, rose as the bank continues to generate a return on equity of over 16%
while growing its loan book at 15% pa.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 43 long positions and 10 short positions in
stocks across 21 markets. During the month, the Company increased exposure to
Kazakhstan oil and gas producer, Kazmunaigas, which has lagged other oil
companies on concerns over the impact of a strike which has now been resolved.
We added to the position in a number defensive holdings such as Qatari utility,
Qatar Electricity and Water and Croatian telecom operator, Hrvatski Telecom.
The Company added to its position in Iraqi oil producer, Gulf Keystone, when
the shares fell and subsequently took some profits when the shares rose by over
25% in a few weeks. The Company substantially increased total short exposure
adding positions in a number of African resource stocks on weakening outlook
for commodities as global growth slows. Finally the short position in an oil
and gas producer with Syrian production was closed at a significant profit.
Outlook
In recent months there has been a noticeable weakening of a number of leading
economic indicators. Business and consumer confidence have declined and labour
markets are weak in developed economies. Expectations for economic growth in
many developed economies are being reduced but, so far, forecasts for earnings
growth remain well into double digits for this year and next. Furthermore the
ability of governments in developed markets to stimulate their economies is
severely constrained given already low interest rates and high levels of
sovereign debt.
We believe the forecasts for corporate earnings in developed markets are overly
optimistic and that corporate earnings growth is likely to slow sharply in the
coming months. Currently, however there is a mis-match between the negative
economic data and the relatively sanguine statements from most companies. This
is reminiscent of the situation in the late summer of 2008 when companies were
also late to recognise the nature and extent of the economic slowdown.
While Frontiers markets will not be immune to any slowdown the extent is likely
to be less than in developed markets and growth starts at a much higher level.
Interest rates are mostly higher and sovereign debt levels are lower than in
developed markets while the banking sector has strong capital ratios and little
or no exposure to peripheral European debt.
Frontiers markets offer strong relative attractions compared to other equity
markets. The companies we invest in are less dependent on developed markets,
faster growing and are on lower valuations. Frontiers markets also offer
diversification benefits given their significantly lower correlations with
developed equity markets which have become highly correlated with each other.
The Company remains overweight Nigeria where we find stocks that are seeing
strong earnings growth and have compelling valuations; we hold banks that are
trading on forward Price-Earnings ratios of 7-8x. The portfolio is also
overweight in Kazakhstan where energy and materials stocks trade on a
significant discount to global peers while Ukrainian demonstrate strong growth
but still trade on 7x earnings.
In Saudi Arabia, we are confident that the political status quo will be
maintained and that this stability will allow the current trends of increased
consumer spending and mobilisation of infrastructure projects will continue. In
this context current valuations remain compelling.
16 September 2011
ENDS
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terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.