Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 September 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price 4.2% 10.0% -2.9% 11.5% -16.4%
Net asset value 1.6% 9.1% -1.3% 10.5% -11.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.5% 4.3% -0.9% -0.1% -15.7%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 4.3% 4.7% -2.9% 12.8% -8.6%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 3.3% 12.3% -0.2% 14.6% -8.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 4.2% 7.4% 0.1% 3.6% -12.7%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 6.0% 7.7% -1.8% 16.9% -5.4%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 132.38c
Net asset value - cum income: 135.36c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 81.98p
Net asset value - cum income: 83.83p
Share price: 80.75p
Total assets (including income): £79.5m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 3.7%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.3%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 28.3 Nigeria 15.9
Consumer Staples 13.6 Qatar 12.9
Industrials 13.4 United Arab Emirates 10.0
Energy 12.6 Kazahstan 9.4
Telecommunication 11.0 Saudi Arabia 8.4
Healthcare 5.7 Vietnam 5.5
Consumer Discretionary 5.7 Iraq 5.0
Materials 4.3 Ukraine 4.7
Utilities 4.0 Panama 4.1
Technology 0.5 Croatia 3.8
----- Argentina 3.7
Total 99.1 Bangladesh 3.4
----- Kuwait 2.8
Short positions -2.6 Pan Africa 2.2
===== Romania 1.9
Algeria 1.8
Kenya 1.7
Cambodia 1.0
Cameroon 0.5
Slovenia 0.4
-----
99.1
=====
Short positions -2.6
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09
2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2 101.9 96.5 99.1
Short 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
Gross 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8 104.5 99.0 101.7
Net 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6 99.3 94.0 96.5
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Commentary
In September, global markets rallied strongly as policy action by both the
European Central Bank ("ECB") and Federal Reserve, spurred a rally in risk
assets. The Eurozone continues to demonstrate strong political willpower to
curtail sovereign debt risks and address systemic risks. The president of the
ECB, Mario Draghi stated that he would do 'whatever it takes to save the Euro'.
Furthermore, the German high court ruled that the European Stability Mechanism
did not contravene the German constitution, thus paving the way for credible
ECB intervention. The US Federal Reserve governor, Ben Bernanke, also
contributed to improved market sentiment by announcing a third programme of
quantitative easing.
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index rose 4.2% in September with a wide dispersion
of returns across markets.
Sri Lankan market rose over 17% in September, rebounding strongly from oversold
conditions with both the Sri Lankan rupee stabilizing and treasury bill yields
falling. The volumes on the stock exchange tripled compared to the previous
month. The Sri Lankan economy is benefiting from a wave of infrastructure
projects in the power, logistics and tourism sectors, driving a robust annual
Gross Domestic Product growth rate of 6.2% for the second quarter of 2012. The
country's ability to tap sovereign bond markets, alongside IMF disbursements is
also supportive for growth and the exchange rate.
Nigeria's stock exchange continued its buoyant year-to-date performance,
increasing another 9% in September. Domestic investors, prompted by falling
bond yields and improving liquidity have increased their exposure to Nigerian
equities. It is notable that Nigerian pension fund allocations to equities are
only 10% compared to a 25% limit. The Nigerian stock exchange implemented new
measures, including widening daily price bands and market making activity for
25 stocks. Both measures had a positive impact on market liquidity.
The Kuwaiti market had its biggest monthly move in over two years, rising 6% in
September. The market was driven by speculation that government funds would be
actively supporting the stock market with buying activity. We believe that this
rally will be short-lived. Kuwait continues to suffer from frequent changes in
government, with the Kuwaiti Emir issuing a decree to dissolve parliament for a
third time in less than a year. Despite record fiscal surpluses, credit growth
and investment spending remains hampered by a challenging political
environment.
In spite of the improved sentiment in European markets, Bulgaria did not
participate in the rally. Although the proposed sale of stakes in power
distribution companies by the state will ultimately be positive, investors are
concerned in the near term about the market's ability to absorb the new
issuance.
Portfolio Performance
In September, the Company's NAV increased by 3.3%, underperforming the MSCI
Frontier Markets index by 0.9% in US dollar terms (with net income reinvested).
In 2012, the Company's NAV increased by 14.4% compared to a benchmark return of
5.6% in US dollar terms.
Positions in Vietnam underperformed in September. The market continued to sell
off following a number of politically motivated high profile arrests in the
banking industry. Vietnamese fertilizer company, Petrovietnam Fertilizer was
the largest detractor, falling 10%. The government postponed the sale of a
fertilizer plant to the company which hurt sentiment. Regardless of whether the
sale occurs, the stock remains extremely cheap, trading on just 4x the ratio of
the Company's share price to its projected future earnings, excluding the
company's substantial net cash position.
Vietnamese consumer stock Kinh Do was also weak, as the stock was excluded from
the FTSE Vietnam Index, which led to short-term selling pressure. The company
released a positive update, announcing that mooncake sales, which account for
the majority of the company's profits, were better than expected.
The Company's positions in Iraq outperformed on the news that the dispute
between the administration of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the Federal
government in Baghdad had been resolved. The will allow payments to be made to
energy companies operating and exporting from Northern Iraq, including
Norwegian-listed DNO.
Kuwait consumer name, Kuwait Foods, the Company's only holding in Kuwait, was
also a strong performer. The company remains materially undervalued, despite
rallying with the Kuwaiti market. Kuwait Foods, also known as the Americana
Group operates the Middle East region's largest chain of fast food restaurants,
with over 1,200 outlets and sells processed food products across the region.
The stock is valued at just 10x forward price to earnings.
Portfolio Activity
At the end of September, the Company held 52 positions across 22 markets.
The Company opened a new position in one of United Arab Emirates' largest
property developers, Aldar, which is examining the feasibility of a merger with
Sorouh Real Estate, its closest peer. Aldar has witnessed significant
restructuring with the government scheduled to provide nearly US$3bn of
cashflow via asset purchases from the developer.
The Company also added to positions in Vietnam at attractive valuations, given
the team's belief that the market had overreacted to recent events. Vietnam is
undertaking firm measures to reform overleveraged state enterprises, which are
crowding out private sector investment and crimping the banking system. The
country has taken steps to tackle excessive monetary growth and inflation.
Recent efforts to tighten monetary supply have paid off, with the Vietnamese
dong appreciating thus far this year due to rising foreign currency reserves,
despite recent concerns over the banking system.
The Company reduced exposure to Iraqi oil names, Westernzagros and DNO on share
price strength. This funded an increase in the holding of Gulf Keystone, which
had lagged its peers. The Company continues to believe that the Kurdistan
region of Iraq offers one of the most prospective energy resource opportunities
globally, and the entrance of several oil and gas majors into the market
recently is testament to this.
Outlook
Global markets post the 2008 global financial crisis, have moved in tandem with
policy action by global central banks and in anticipation of cyclical inventory
restocking effects. The noteworthy recovery in European financials, which have
risen nearly 50% in US$ terms from their July lows suggests a further
normalization in European financial risk. Moreover, US equities have begun to
outperform US Treasuries, not only over the past month, but over the past one
and three years, suggesting that investors are gradually shifting their asset
allocation away from low yielding sovereign bonds.
This unwinding of bearish positioning and normalizing European financial risk
is likely to drive global equity markets higher. The Company is well positioned
in this environment, given its substantial overweight positions in Kazakhstan
and Ukraine, where stocks, despite delivering solid operating performance, have
been unfairly penalized by negative sentiment pervading Europe. MHP, Ukraine's
largest poultry company, has a solid record of capacity expansion and is
completely self-sufficient in feed, thus benefitting from rising corn prices.
Yet, the stock is valued at a ratio of less than 5x the Company's share price
to its 2012 earnings.
The Company remains optimistic on the outlook for Frontier markets, which stand
out for their low valuations and high dividend yields. Positive structural
reforms, high growth and well-capitalised, liquid banking systems leave several
Frontier economies well placed in the current global environment. Both Nigeria
and Vietnam stand out for their efforts in addressing long-term structural
problems. Nigeria is tackling challenges associated with its chronic lack of
power capacity, high fuel subsidies and energy sector investment.
16 October 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.