Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 March 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six Year Since
month months months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price 6.0% 16.8% 14.8% 16.8% -13.9%
Net asset value 3.2% 11.5% 12.0% 11.5% -10.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.3% 2.6% 0.9% 2.6% -14.9%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -3.4% 11.0% 16.2% 11.0% -5.9%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 3.2% 14.7% 14.9% 14.7% -8.2%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.4% 5.5% 3.5% 5.5% -12.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -3.3% 14.1% 19.1% 14.1% -3.6%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 134.85c
Net asset value - cum income: 136.98c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 84.40p
Net asset value - cum income: 85.74p
Share price: 84.00p
Total assets (including income): £81.3m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 2.0%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 2.3%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 28.1 Qatar 13.8
Industrials 15.1 Nigeria 13.1
Energy 13.9 Kazakhstan 11.7
Consumer Staples 13.5 Saudi Arabia 8.9
Telecommunications 12.1 Ukraine 7.5
Utilities 4.3 United Arab Emirates 6.9
Materials 4.2 Argentina 6.3
Consumer Discretionary 3.7 Kuwait 5.8
Healthcare 2.8 Croatia 4.1
Technology 0.6 Bangladesh 3.7
----- Vietnam 2.6
Total 98.3 Pan Africa 2.3
----- Pakistan 2.2
Short positions -3.0 Panama 2.2
===== Iraq 2.0
Kenya 1.8
Romania 1.2
Slovenia 1.1
Oman 1.1
-----
98.3
=====
Short positions -3.0
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03
2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 103.2 103.3 103.6 105.2 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3
Short 2.9 2.7 2.8 7.8 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0
Gross 106.1 106.0 106.4 113.0 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3
Net 100.3 100.6 100.8 97.4 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
HalykSavings Bank Kazakhstan
HrvatskiTelekomunikacije Croatia
KazmunaigasExploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
National Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
Markets Summary
The MSCI Frontier Markets index returned 2.3% over the month, outperforming
both developed and emerging markets benchmarks. The rally in global risk assets
that has characterized the start of 2012 lost some of its momentum in March.
Kazakhstan was the strongest performer in March. There are clear signs that
Kazakhstan's immense mineral wealth is reversing losses created during the 2008
global banking crisis. The banking system is returning to growth and
profitability with stabilizing asset quality and high levels of liquidity.
Jordan was also a strong performer over the month. Local retail buying lifted
the market from depressed conditions after it had registered a seven year low
in October 2011. We do not believe this rally is a harbinger of an incipient
Jordanian bull market. The bottom up outlook for several Jordanian companies
remains unappealing. Foreign participation in the mining sector is under
increased scrutiny with government proposing an effective re-nationalization of
one of the listed mining stocks. The economic outlook for Jordan is equally
challenged with the country struggling to curb its fiscal deficit.
Kenya continued its strong start to 2012 and is now up nearly 20% year to date.
The Kenyan Central Bank has regained credibility in the fight against
inflation. After raising rates six times in 2011, inflation is now at its
lowest level since July 2011. The Kenyan shilling and treasuries have
strengthened in response. Kenya also witnessed the first discovery of oil in
the country's North West which was positive for sentiment.
Ukraine was the weakest performer in March after the credit outlook for the
country was downgraded to negative. The pressure on the Ukrainian budget has
increased since the suspension of the IMF's $15bn refinancing programme due to
a lack of fiscal reforms. Recent populist spending announcements by Ukrainian
president Viktor Yanukovic and failure of negotiations with Russia's Gazprom to
lower gas prices have all weighed on sentiment.
Performance
The Company returned 3.2% in March, outperforming the MSCI frontiers Index by
0.9%. Since the start of 2012, the Company's NAV has returned 11.5%,
outperforming the benchmark by 8.9%
The Company was well positioned over the month with positive contributors to
performance coming from both stock selection and asset allocation.
The overweight position in Kazakhstan was a significant contributor in March,
with the Company's holdings in energy company, Kazmunaigas and financial, Halyk
Bank notable outperformers.
Grameenphonealso contributed positively to performance. The Bangladesh telecom
company was trading on depressed valuations in spite of its strong growth
prospects. The stock re-rated as sentiment improved on the prospects of an
imminent IMF credit facility.
We have often commented that in emerging and frontier markets, one must have a
view on politics, macroeconomics, currency and fixed income and only then is it
possible to form a view on the value of equity. The coup in the Mali capital,
Bamako, where rebel troops announced that they had taken control of the
Presidential Palace, is a case in point. Mali is important as one of the top 10
gold producers in the world; we believed it to be less politically stable than
many assumed. The Company's short exposure to a mining company with significant
exposure to Mali was one of the best performing positions in March.
The largest single detractor from performance was the Company's holding in
Kazakh miner, ENRC, which announced results which disappointed the markets.
Despite increased revenues and record sales in the ferrochrome division, higher
than expected costs reduced profits below market forecasts.
Outlook
We remain bullish on frontier markets, and we continue to see a wealth of
investment opportunities, with valuations and growth prospects superior to
developed and emerging market peers. We think the implementation of positive
structural reforms, improving domestic liquidity and disinflation will prove to
be powerful drivers for rising confidence in frontier equity markets.
Near-term, we have selectively reduced the Company's net exposure after strong
performance. We are aware that the global macroeconomic backdrop for equities
could deteriorate in the coming months with renewed concerns on European
peripheral risk. US economic data could soften near-term after as the recent
spate of positive surprises driven by the abnormally benign weather abates.
We reduced exposure in Saudi Arabia in March and were concerned by evidence of
rising margin lending and retail speculation in low quality stocks.
Nevertheless, we expect strong corporate earnings and abundant liquidity to be
supportive of the market, and post the recent correction in April, we are
looking to add back to our exposure.
We continue to see further evidence of frontier economies embarking on positive
policy reforms, and resolving historic macroeconomic imbalances. In Nigeria,
where the Company has a significant overweight position, the government is
addressing endemic power shortages by signing a landmark deal with General
Electric to build and operate power plants. The government has also proposed
guaranteeing financing for these projects and firing key officials within the
electricity sector who were held culpable for the country's significant power
shortages. This follows a reduction in fuel subsidies implemented in January
which will free up the government's wallet for productive investment spending.
In Bangladesh, the IMF is proposing a US$1bn credit facility at its next board
meeting, recognizing significant efforts by the government and central bank to
address the fiscal deficit and tighten banking regulations post a stock market
bubble.
We remain confident on our substantial overweight positions in Kazakhstan and
Ukraine after our recent research trip to both countries. The banking system
has plentiful liquidity with 3 month interbank rates at only 1%. Credit growth
and money supply is at a positive inflection point. This is exciting for the
prospects for the Company's holding in Halyk Bank, which trades on a price to
book ratio of just 1x, despite excess capital and a strong deposit franchise.
The trip also confirmed our thesis on energy company, Kazmunaigas, which trades
on a cheap price to earnings ratio of 5x, offering a 7% dividend yield, despite
having rallied almost 40% since the start of the year.
In Ukraine, our team met with the deputy prime minister, Mr Sergiy Tigipko, to
discuss the Ukrainian balance of payments issue. We concluded that whilst there
are risks in the Ukraine, these are largely discounted considering the
likelihood of an IMF deal, if external pressures escalate. On a lighter note,
UEFA's European Championships is being held in the Ukraine this year and this
will centre attention on the country.
19 April 2012
ENDS
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website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.