Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 July 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price 6.0% -4.5% 5.4% -7.6% -19.5%
Net asset value 3.0% -4.6% 1.1% -6.0% -16.5%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 1.1% -1.4% -0.5% -7.9% -18.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 2.1% -2.6% -4.2% -9.8% -10.9%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 3.0% -8.0% 0.4% -10.3% -16.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 1.0% -4.9% -1.2% -12.1% -17.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 2.0% -6.0% -4.8% -13.9% -10.4%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 121.27c
Net asset value - cum income: 124.07c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 77.39p
Net asset value - cum income: 79.18p
Share price: 77.75p
Total assets (including income): £75.0m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 1.8%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.4%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.1 Nigeria 15.9
Telecommunications 14.0 Qatar 13.8
Consumer Staples 13.9 United Arab Emirates 10.6
Industrials 13.9 Kazakhstan 10.4
Energy 12.6 Saudi Arabia 8.9
Healthcare 5.9 Ukraine 6.3
Utilities 4.4 Kuwait 5.8
Consumer Discretionary 3.9 Iraq 5.1
Materials 3.5 Vietnam 4.7
Technology 0.7 Croatia 4.0
----- Panama 3.7
Total 101.9 Bangladesh 2.8
----- Argentina 2.4
Short positions -2.6 Pan Africa 2.1
===== Kenya 1.8
Algeria 1.6
Romania 1.6
Slovenia 0.4
-----
101.9
=====
Short positions -2.6
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 100.7 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2 101.9
Short 7.4 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.6
Gross 108.1 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8 104.5
Net 93.3 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6 99.3
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
First Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
National Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market performance
In July, the MSCI Frontier Market index returned +1.0% in USD terms.
The US financial system and housing market continue to demonstrate signs of
normality despite turbulence in Europe. These factors have provided succour to
oil markets which recovered all of their June losses during July . As a result,
the energy exporting nations which had suffered in June, bounced back in July.
Of the largest Frontier Markets, Nigeria was the strongest performer, rising
13% in July. Aside from the recovery in oil prices, the banking sector
delivered second quarter earnings results that were significantly better than
market expectations. Aggregate profits for Nigerian banks were up in excess of
60% compared to the previous year.
Kazakhstan also performed well in line with oil prices. The S&P reaffirmed its
BBB+ credit rating, citing the country's strong fiscal and external balance
positions, sizeable natural resource endowment and high and stable Foreign
Direct Investment flows
Pakistan was the best performing stock market in Asia over in July, returning
6% over the month. The market shrugged off continued political instability and
a credit rating downgrade from Moody's. Investors cheered signs of thawing
relations with the US and moderating inflation.
The weakest performers in July were Oman and Bangladesh. The Omani market was
hampered by Bank Muscat's rights issue, as investors sold down the stock to
purchase the rights which were trading at a discount to the underlying stock.
The Bangladeshi market struggled as the banking system faced stricter
regulatory guidelines which would hurt short-term profitability.
Portfolio Commentary
The Company's NAV increased by 3.0% in June, outperforming the index by 2.0%
in US dollar terms.
The strongest contributors to performance included financials in Nigeria and
Kazakhstan. Nigerian bank, UBA continued its strong run after announcing that
second quarter profits in June had more than doubled. The stock has risen 175%
since its January lows. Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan was also an outperformer
having been unfairly punished in previous months despite its well-capitalized
balance sheet, high liquidity and cheap valuation.
The Company's underweight position in Kuwaiti financial, National Bank of
Kuwait, also contributed to relative performance in July. The shares suffered a
6% fall, the largest single day decline in two years, following the
announcement of weak earnings which surprised many investors. The Kuwaiti
banking system has to yet to fully recognize losses from the aftermath of
lending to unregulated investment companies. The Company has no exposure to
Kuwaiti financials and remains materially underweight Kuwait. The Company's
largest holding in Kuwait, NMTC, is currently being bid for by its parent,
Qatar Telecom. The shares remain suspended awaiting a regulatory approval by
the Kuwaiti capital markets authority.
Shares in Saudi hospital operator, Al Mouwasat also performed well in July,
delivering solid earnings for the second quarter that were up 17% compared to a
year ago. Detracting from performance was Slovenian financial, Nova Kreditna
Banka Maribor, which suffered a credit downgrade in light of deteriorating
asset quality.
Portfolio Activity
In July, the Company added to positions in Saudi hospital operator, Al Mouwasat
and DNO, the Norwegian listed energy company with assets in Iraq. It is
notable that Mouwasat trades at a prodigious discount to global emerging market
peers despite the favourable prospects for private sector healthcare growth in
Saudi Arabia. IHH Healthcare in Malaysia, which recently completed its initial
public offering in Malaysia, is valued at nearly 10x the market capitalization
of Mouwasat despite similar forecast earnings for the current year.
Following a 65% fall in its share price, the Trust re-initiated a position in
Gulf Keystone, the London listed, Iraqi oil company.
The Company initiated a new position in Cable and Wireless Communications, a
leading telecommunications operator in several Frontier Markets, including
Panama, Macau and the Caribbean Islands. The Company believes the operator is
engineering a successful turnaround in Jamaica as a consequence of favourable
regulatory environments, and has significant asset value that could be
crystallized through disposals over the medium term.
The Company reduced positions in Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Ukraine, taking some
profits in Halyk Bank and United Bank for Africa. The Company also reduced its
position in JKX Oil & Gas.
Outlook
Global equity markets have been volatile throughout 2012 as concerns
surrounding the Eurozone, the strength of the US economy and the prospects of
declining activity in China have all weighed on markets. However, recent
comments from the ECB, positive economic data in the US and a stabilization of
the property market in China have pointed to a recovery in risk appetite.
Global investors are largely bearishly positioned, as such, inflows into
equities could rise sharply should macroeconomic worries recede.
Record low bond yields are forcing investors to widen their search for yield.
US high yield credit spreads have performed well and more recently, several US
large caps equities have re-rated to all-time highs, given that their earnings
and dividend yields are at record premiums to bond yields. In this context, the
Gulf markets, in particular Qatar, stand out for their high dividend yields in
secure US$ pegged currencies, amidst low sovereign bond yields and healthy
growth prospects. Allocation into the Middle East by global emerging market
funds are at their lowest since 2005, and this is likely to improve as these
markets are unlikely to be isolated from the global search for yield. The
Company is also positive on the outlook for the UAE, which continues to witness
a strong earnings seasons, with multiple companies significantly beating
expectations. The Company holds a substantial position in UAE financial First
Gulf Bank, which trades on just 6x forward price/earnings, despite its
consistently high levels of profitability and excess capital.
The Company has a significant overweight position in Nigeria, where financials
are trading on forward price-earnings ratios of just 5-6x with 7-9% dividend
yields. The Company remains constructive on the outlook for Nigeria, given the
country is still at nascent stages of implementing various supply-side and
fiscal reforms, alongside rising oil production given the improving security
situation in the Niger Delta region.
15 August 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.