Portfolio Update
THE BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 September 2011 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Year Since
month months to date launch*
Sterling:
Share price -3.2% -18.1% -30.1% -25.0%
Net asset value -3.1% -14.4% -19.7% -20.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -0.6% -9.4% -16.7% -15.6%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -10.7% -20.2% -21.5% -19.0%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -7.3% -17.0% -20.1% -20.1%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -4.9% -12.1% -17.1% -15.7%
MSCI EM Markets(NR) -14.6% -22.6% -21.9% -19.1%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 118.62c
Net asset value - cum income: 122.13c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 76.14p
Net asset value - cum income: 78.40p
Share price: 75.00p
Total assets (including income): £74.3m
Discount to capital only NAV: 1.5%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Gross long exposure Gross long exposure
(Directly invested, (Directly invested,
CFDs and P-Notes) CFDs and P-Notes)
Financials 27.8 Qatar 16.2
Industrials 20.5 Nigeria 14.3
Consumer Staples 13.6 Saudi Arabia 10.6
Energy 10.6 Kazakhstan 10.5
Telecommunications 8.0 Ukraine 8.7
Materials 7.3 United Arab Emirates 7.0
Utilities 5.3 Kuwait 6.0
Consumer Discretionary 4.6 Croatia 4.9
Healthcare 3.0 Iraq 4.0
----- Jordan 3.5
Total 100.7 Panama 3.4
----- Oman 2.5
===== Pakistan 2.0
Short positions -7.4 Romania 1.7
----- Other 3.4
-----
Total 100.7
=====
-----
Short positions -7.4
=====
*reflects market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.12 31.1 28.2 31.3 30.4 31.5 30.6 31.7 31.8 30.9
2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
% % % % % % % % % %
Long 76.3 92.3 96.5 98.0 99.9 103.1 103.3 103.6 105.2 100.7
Short - - - - 2.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 7.8 7.4
Gross 76.3 92.3 96.5 98.0 101.9 106.0 106.0 106.4 113.0 108.1
Net 76.3 92.3 96.5 98.0 97.9 100.2 100.6 100.8 97.4 93.3
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Al Othaim Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
Copa Panama
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Qatar Navigation Qatar
Saudi Arabian Amiantit Saudi Arabia
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Fund Manager Commentary:
Markets
The MSCI Frontiers Index returned -4.9% in September, outperforming both the
MSCI World index, which fell by -6.7%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index,
which declined -14.6%. Equity markets worldwide suffered from significant
volatility due to concerns about slowing global growth and the ability of
peripheral European countries to repay their debt obligations. Opportunities
for diversification have reduced and correlations have increased, as in 2008,
with global equities, debt, oil, copper and inflation rising and falling
together. Against this background Frontier markets have continued to
demonstrate lower correlations with global markets, whilst offering exposure to
the fastest growing markets and the highest yielding stocks across the emerging
markets universe.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding global markets, Saudi Arabia and Qatar both
posted a gain over the month buoyed by local investor confidence following wage
increases of up to 50% in Qatar and continued high government spending in Saudi
Arabia.
In Africa, investors remained concerned that Kenya's central bank was remained
behind the curve in tackling the country's record inflation level and as a
result the Kenyan Shilling depreciated 7% over the month bringing the
cumulative depreciation this year to 24%. Since the end of September, interest
rates have been hiked 4%, indicating a change in policy although significant
headwinds remain.
Portfolio performance
The BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust's NAV fell by 7.3% and underperformed
the MSCI Frontiers index by 2.4%.
The performance of the Company was negatively impacted by the underweight
position in Kuwait, a market which has historically had a very low beta to
global markets, where local investors mobilised cash at the end of the quarter.
We do not believe the fundamental outlook for Kuwait has changed and will
remain underweight.
The Company was also hurt by positions in stocks which despite having their
operations based in frontier markets are listed in developed markets. These
stocks have a higher beta to developments in global markets than a typical
frontier stock as a result of their wider investor base. The largest stock
detractor from performance was Romanian television company, Central European
Media, which is the market leading broadcaster across the region, listed in the
US. The stock sold off as investors reduced exposure on increasing risk
aversion to Europe. We remain convinced that the stock has value at these
levels as evidenced by Time Warner, the largest shareholder, having bought
shares at significantly higher levels in the past. Since month end, the stock
has bounced more than 30% from these oversold levels validating our decision to
continue to hold the position. Other disappointing stocks over the month
included London listed natural resources stocks: Firestone Diamonds which
reported a weaker than expected end of August diamond tender in Botswana and
Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation which suffered from deteriorating
sentiment in the iron ore market.
The Company had no exposure to Argentina which, given that the market fell 37%
over the month, contributed positively to relative performance. In light of our
expectation that soft commodity prices will remain under pressure, we expect
that Argentina's external balance will continue to deteriorate. Recent polls
suggest that Christina de Kirchner will retain the presidency and if so, we
would not expect any substantial change to macroeconomic policy following
elections later this month.
The Company also benefited from overweight positions in Saudi Arabia and
Nigeria and an underweight position in Kenya.
Stocks contributing to performance over the month included Saudi retailer, Al
Othaim, which continues to take market share helped by increased consumer
confidence following bonuses paid to public sector workers earlier this year.
Holdings in Pakistan cement producer, Lucky Cement, benefited the Company.
Cement prices rose as volumes normalised having fallen in the wake of the
severe floods last year. Also contributing to performance was Iraqi oil
producer, Gulf Keystone after UK-based Vallares, (led by former BP CEO, Tony
Hayward) announced a merger with one of the largest oil producers in the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq, confirming the Team's positive view on the country.
The Company benefited from a number of short positions including positions in
an African iron ore company which announced results showing that its funding
position was weaker than investors had expected and a global transportation
company based in the Middle East which fell from overvalued levels on concerns
over falling global growth.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is currently holding 42 long positions and 8 short positions in
stocks across 22 markets.
During the month, the Company bought protection against a Bulgarian sovereign
default. This position contributed positively to performance over the month. As
with all derivative positions, it is our team view only ever to buy
optionality, never to sell it. In addition, the Company reduced exposure to
Romania both on the back of deteriorating macroeconomic indicators and concerns
of contagion from the current Eurozone crisis.
The Company took profits in a Ukrainian short position following an almost 20%
share price fall as the company now looked cheap and rotated this short
exposure into an African gold position which looked substantially overvalued
compared to similar peers.
Outlook
Economic data in September were more mixed than in August in the US but
continued to weaken in continental Europe. Meanwhile forecasts for corporate
earnings growth have been reduced but still fail to reflect the extent of the
global slowdown. As we have discussed previously, the ability of governments in
developed markets to stimulate their economies is severely constrained while
those in frontier markets are in a much better position with stronger growth
and lower levels of debt.
While frontier markets will not be immune to any slowdown the extent is likely
to be less than in developed markets. Sovereign debt levels are lower than in
developed markets while the banking sector has strong capital ratios and little
or no exposure to peripheral European debt.
Frontier markets offer strong relative attractions compared to other equity
markets. The companies we invest in are less dependent on developed markets,
faster growing and are on lower valuations. Frontier markets also offer
diversification benefits given their significantly lower correlations with
developed equity markets which have become highly correlated with each other.
The Company remains overweight Saudi Arabia where we are confident that the
political status quo will be maintained and that this stability will allow the
current trends of increased consumer spending and mobilisation of
infrastructure projects will continue. In this context current valuations
remain compelling. Within the Middle East, we continue to see a contrast
between countries which due to their wealth are relatively protected from
popular unrest such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar and those countries which are
more fiscally constrained and are currently seeing accelerating domestic
discontent such as Syria and Egypt.
20 October 2011
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
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website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.