Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 October 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price 0.6% 4.5% -0.2% 10.0% -15.9%
Net asset value 1.3% 7.2% 2.3% 12.0% -10.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -0.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.9% -16.1%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -0.4% 2.2% -0.5% 2.8% -9.0%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 1.1% 10.3% 1.5% 11.8% -7.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -0.7% 5.6% 0.4% 0.7% -13.3%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -0.6% 5.0% -1.3% 2.6% -5.9%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 133.80c
Net asset value - cum income: 136.82c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 83.05p
Net asset value - cum income: 84.92p
Share price: 81.25p
Total assets (including income): £80.5m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 4.3%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.2%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.4 Nigeria 15.3
Industrials 15.3 Qatar 12.0
Consumer Staples 14.3 United Arab Emirates 11.8
Telecommunication 11.2 Kazahstan 9.0
Energy 10.7 Saudi Arabia 8.6
Healthcare 5.6 Vietnam 6.0
Consumer Discretionary 5.3 Ukraine 4.7
Materials 5.0 Panama 4.4
Utilities 3.7 Bangladesh 4.0
Technology 0.5 Iraq 4.0
----- Croatia 3.6
Total 101.0 Argentina 3.3
----- Kenya 3.1
Short positions -4.2 Kuwait 2.8
===== Pan Africa 2.4
Algeria 2.0
Romania 1.5
Cameroon 1.1
Cambodia 1.0
Slovenia 0.4
-----
101.0
=====
Short positions -4.2
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10
2011 2012 2012 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2 101.9 96.5 99.1 101.0
Short 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 4.2
Gross 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8 104.5 99.0 101.7 105.2
Net 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6 99.3 94.0 96.5 96.8
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Air Arabia United Arab Emirates
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
First National Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market performance
In October, global markets were relatively muted as investors attempted to
reconcile the support provided by the Federal Reserve's QE3 programme and the
European Central Bank's open market transactions with a disappointing earnings
season. The US Presidential election campaign entered its final phase which
also contributed to markets moving broadly sideways.
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index returned -0.7% (on a US dollar basis).
Serbia & Romania were the strongest performers in October. Serbia, which has
long been suffering from a low-growth economy, will likely begin negotiations
with the IMF to recommence assistance. The IMF had suspended a $1.3billion
precautionary loan on concerns that the Serbian government were failing to meet
deficit and debt targets. The government has also recently announced measures
to encourage foreign investment and kick-start exports in a bid ignite a
recovery. Romania has been in talks with the IMF to help shore up its own
economic recovery from the financial crisis.
Kenya continued its resurgence from the problems of 2011. Inflation has fallen
over the last 10 consecutive months and now stands at 5.3%. Recent
developments include the introduction of Kenya's first government bond index,
with the aim of deepening capital markets.
Sri Lanka was the weakest performer in October, arresting the strong
performance in September, driven by disappointing economic data. The external
trade deficit increased in October, fuelled by an increase in oil-related
imports. Sri Lanka's antiquated refinery is configured to accept Iranian crude
oil which they were buying at a discount, but has been forced to source
alternatives in the face of sanctions.
Argentina also performed poorly amid a deteriorating economic environment,
which at the beginning of November prompted mass protests against the
government of Christina de Kirchner.
Portfolio performance
In October the Company's NAV increased by 1.1%, outperforming the benchmark
index by 1.8%. Over the last 12 months the Company has returned 11.8%,
significantly outperforming a benchmark return of 0.7% (all calculations on a
US dollar basis with net income reinvested).
The largest individual contributor to performance in October was Panamanian
airline, Copa. The airline announced positive operating figures in September,
which showed that the company had been able to increase the load factor in a
period in which capacity grew over 25%. Since the month end, Copa have
announced third quarter earnings which saw earnings per share increase 8%
year-on-year, beating market expectations.
The underweight position in consumer staple stock, Nigerian Breweries, also
contributed to outperformance. The share price fell over 10% on the back of a
weak trading update and disappointing results. Demand was weak, partly due to
flooding impacting distribution.
The Company's positions in Iraq were a detractor from performance in October
over continued uncertainty surrounding the payment for exports from the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Activity
The Company opened a new position in Bangladesh financial, National Bank
Bangladesh.
The Company also added to the position in United Arab Emirates' largest
property developers, Aldar, which remains in discussions over a potential
merger with Sorouh Real Estate, its closest peer. Aldar has witnessed
significant restructuring with the government scheduled to provide nearly
US$3bn of cashflow via asset purchases from the developer.
The Company reduced the position in Nigerian financial, Zenith Bank after a
strong period of performance in 2012 with the share price up 50%.
Market Outlook
Global markets post the 2008 global financial crisis have moved in tandem with
policy action by global central banks and in anticipation of cyclical inventory
restocking effects. The noteworthy recovery in European financials, which have
risen nearly 50% in US$ terms from their July lows suggests a further
normalization in European financial risk. Investors, remain extremely risk
averse as evidenced by large fund flows into low yielding sovereign bonds.
This unwinding of bearish positioning and normalizing European financial risk
is likely to drive global equity markets higher. The Company is well positioned
in this environment, given its substantial overweight positions in Kazakhstan
and Ukraine, where stocks, despite delivering solid operating performance, have
been unfairly penalized by negative sentiment pervading Europe. MHP, Ukraine's
largest poultry company, has a solid record of capacity expansion and is
completely self-sufficient in feed, thus benefitting from rising corn prices.
Yet, the stock is valued with the current share price less than 5x its earnings
in 2012.
The Company remains optimistic on the outlook for Frontier Markets, which stand
out for their low valuations and high dividend yields. Positive structural
reforms, high growth and well-capitalised, liquid banking systems leave several
Frontier economies well placed in the current global environment. Both Nigeria
and Vietnam stand out for their efforts in addressing long-term structural
problems. Nigeria is tackling challenges associated with its chronic lack of
power capacity, high fuel subsidies and energy sector investment.
20 November 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.