Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 January 2013 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price 16.2% 18.0% 23.3% 30.0% -0.7%
Net asset value 10.5% 14.2% 22.5% 23.9% 2.3%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 10.2% 13.3% 16.3% 15.8% -4.9%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.9% 9.4% 11.8% 7.1% -0.4%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 7.8% 12.4% 23.9% 24.5% 4.1%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 7.5% 11.5% 17.7% 16.3% -3.3%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 1.4% 7.7% 13.1% 7.6% 1.3%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 150.98c
Net asset value - cum income: 151.17c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 95.22p
Net asset value - cum income: 95.34p
Share price: 94.25p
Total assets (including income): £90.4m
Discount to cum income NAV: 1.1%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 2.5%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 30.5 Nigeria 15.8
Consumer Staples 15.7 Qatar 11.1
Telecommunication 14.3 United Arab Emirates 11.0
Industrials 11.8 Kazakhstan 9.1
Energy 10.1 Saudi Arabia 9.0
Materials 7.1 Vietnam 6.1
Healthcare 6.5 Ukraine 5.0
Consumer Discretionary 5.6 Bangladesh 4.9
Utilities 2.8 Iraq 4.7
Technology 0.7 Panama 4.3
----- Argentina 3.0
Total 105.1 Croatia 2.9
----- Algeria 2.8
Short positions -3.5 Pan Africa 2.3
===== Cambodia 2.1
Kenya 2.0
Kuwait 2.0
Sri Lanka 1.9
Romania 1.5
Cameroon 1.3
Republic of Congo 1.0
Lebanon 0.9
Slovenia 0.4
-----
105.1
=====
Short positions -3.5
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01
2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2 101.9 96.5 99.1 101.0 102.0 103.4 105.1
Short 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 4.2 4.9 5.2 3.5
Gross 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8 104.5 99.0 101.7 105.2 106.9 108.6 108.6
Net 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6 99.3 94.0 96.5 96.8 97.1 98.2 101.6
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
FBN Holdings Nigeria
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Orascom Telecommunications Algeria
Petrovietnam Fertilizers & Chemicals Vietnam
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Bank Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
In January, the MSCI Frontiers Markets Index returned 7.5% (on a US dollar
basis with net income reinvested), outperforming both Developed and Emerging
Markets. Global markets started 2013 with improved sentiment on the back of
easing concerns about the US fiscal cliff, strong manufacturing data in China
(the fastest expansion in 2 years) and a continued stabilization of European
bond markets.
Vietnam was the strongest performer of Frontier Markets, rising by 20% in
January. Central bank measures to tackle inflation and curtail credit growth
have improved domestic confidence and reduced capital flight. The country
remains a strong beneficiary of Foreign Direct Investment, with strategic
investors recently shoring up the capital position of domestic banks.
The United Arab Emirates ("UAE") was also up by 20% as the equity market
finally caught up with the buoyant economy and improving real estate market. In
addition, Dubai successfully issued US$1.25bn of bonds.
Kuwait continued to lag the rally in global markets. The long standing
political stasis and weak investment outlook amidst high valuations continue to
impact on the market.
Portfolio
In January the Company returned 7.8%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.3% (all
calculations on a US dollar basis with net income reinvested).
The largest individual contributor to performance was the casino operator,
Nagacorp, which owns the largest integrated gaming and hotel complex in
Cambodia. The shares performed well on account of Cambodia's strong tourism
flows and in anticipation of strong 2012 earnings.
Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemicals performed well, outperforming the buoyant
Vietnamese market, as investors were optimistic on the prospect of an increased
dividend. Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemicals remains on one of the cheapest
fertilizer stocks globally with a free cash flow yield of nearly 20%.
Nigerian financial, United Bank for Africa ("UBA") contributed to performance,
rising by 55% in January. This stock has now risen nearly threefold since the
Company purchased its initial position. Despite this sharp rally, UBA is valued
at just 5 times forward price to earnings and 1 times book value.
Detracting from performance was Kazakh financial, Halyk Savings as sentiment
was impacted by proposed changes in the domestic pension system, which could
potentially have a negative impact on earnings.
Activity
At the end of January, the Company held 55 long positions and 3 short positions
across 25 countries. We are aiming to reduce the number of positions held over
the next few months.
The Company added to positions in Bangladesh, increasing exposure to health
care company, Square Pharmaceutical and consumer staples name, Marico. The team
funded this from the sale of Bangladesh telecom, Grameenphone, which is facing
increased competition which will impact margins.
The Company sold its holding in UAE property developer, Aldar, taking profits
on the back of a strong share price. The Company has a positive view on the
newly merged Abu Dhabi Property company (Aldar Sorouh), given the significant
government support received by this holding. We have retained a position in
Sorouh which will be merged into the new entity at a premium.
Outlook
The Company has highlighted in recent commentaries its view that the
normalization of European financial risk and unwinding of extremely bearish
positioning was likely to drive global equity markets higher. This was largely
crystallized in January. European financials have continued their strong rally,
rising nearly 70% in US dollar terms from their July lows. Global equity
markets witnessed record inflows - the final week of January alone witnessed
US$19bn of inflows, the third largest since 1992, suggesting that investors are
gradually shifting their asset allocation away from low yielding sovereign
bonds.
The Company is well positioned in this environment, given its substantial
overweight positions in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, where stocks, despite
delivering solid operating performance, have been unfairly penalized by
negative sentiment pervading Europe. MHP, Ukraine's largest poultry company,
has a solid record of capacity expansion and is completely self-sufficient in
feed, thus benefitting from rising corn prices. Yet the stock is valued at just
6 times 2013 price to earnings.
The Company remains optimistic on the outlook for Frontier Markets, which stand
out for their low valuations and high dividend yields. Positive structural
reforms, high growth and well-capitalised, liquid banking systems leave several
Frontier economies well placed in the current global environment. Frontier
stocks, particularly in the domestic or consumer sectors are valued at a
fraction of their emerging peers despite higher growth rates and higher
margins. Both Nigeria and Vietnam are notable examples of Frontier Markets
addressing long-term structural problems. Nigeria is tackling challenges
associated with its chronic lack of power capacity, high fuel subsidies and
energy sector investment.
13 February 2013
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.