Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 June 2013 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price -1.9% 2.3% 31.8% 48.2% 12.6%
Net asset value -3.1% 5.1% 22.8% 40.3% 13.7%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -5.6% 2.9% 19.1% 27.2% 2.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -6.4% -8.0% -3.1% 6.4% -7.1%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -3.0% 5.1% 14.7% 35.8% 10.7%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -5.6% 2.7% 11.1% 23.0% 0.0%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -6.4% -8.1% -9.6% 2.9% -9.6%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 155.64c
Net asset value - cum income: 155.64c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 102.61p
Net asset value - cum income: 102.61p
Share price: 103.50p
Total assets (including income): £97.2m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 0.9%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield: 4.9%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
*Yield calculations are based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as
at the date of the release of this announcement, including the 2012 final
dividend per share of 2.60 cents per share (1.64557 pence per share) announced
on 30 November 2012, the 2013 interim dividend of 2.00 cents per share and the
special interim dividend of 3.40 cents per share announced on 30 May 2013,
payable to shareholders on 5 July 2013. The interim and special dividends
announced on 30 May 2013 that total 5.40 cents per share (3.45003 pence per
share) are the total dividends for the financial year ending 30 September 2013.
The special dividend represents the final dividend which is normally paid in
March each year. Therefore, a more accurate indication of the projected yield
for the financial year to 30 September 2013 would be 3.1% (based on the latest
available share price as at the date of this announcement of 110.00 pence per
share). The Board does not currently anticipate any further distributions for
the current financial year.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.9 Nigeria 11.2
Consumer Staples 15.2 Qatar 10.8
Telecommunication 13.7 Saudi Arabia 10.8
Energy 12.3 United Arab Emirates 9.9
Industrials 9.9 Kazakhstan 7.2
Healthcare 6.6 Iraq 5.5
Consumer Discretionary 4.1 Bangladesh 5.4
Materials 2.0 Vietnam 5.3
Utilities 1.5 Ukraine 3.7
Technology 0.7 Sri Lanka 3.7
----- Pan Africa 2.6
Total 95.9 Panama 2.3
----- Croatia 2.2
Short positions -2.5 Kuwait 2.2
===== Algeria 2.2
Cambodia 1.9
Oman 1.9
Pakistan 1.5
Argentina 1.4
Turkmenistan 1.4
Other 2.8
-----
95.9
=====
Short positions -2.5
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06
2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 101.9 96.5 99.1 101.0 102.0 103.4 105.1 104.1 99.5 99.2 99.8 95.9
Short 2.6 2.5 2.6 4.2 4.9 5.2 3.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.5
Gross 104.5 99.0 101.7 105.2 106.9 108.6 108.6 105.3 100.7 100.4 100.9 98.4
Net 99.3 94.0 96.5 96.8 97.1 98.2 101.6 102.9 98.3 98.0 98.7 93.4
Ten Largest Equity Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Zenith Bank Nigeria 4.9%
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan 4.0%
Doha Bank Qatar 3.8%
Etihad Etisalat Saudi Arabia 3.6%
Qatar National Bank Qatar 3.4%
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan 3.2%
First Gulf Bank United Arab Emirates 2.8%
United International Transport Saudi Arabia 2.8%
Hatton National Bank Sri Lanka 2.7%
Kinh Do Corporation Vietnam 2.6%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market overview
In June the MSCI Frontier Markets Index returned -5.6% (in US dollar terms with
net income reinvested). This reduced the calendar year to date gain to 11.1%.
In contrast the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down by 6.4% in June, meaning
that they have fallen by 9.6% year to date. Since inception in late 2010, the
Company's NAV is up by 10.7%, the MSCI Frontier Markets index is up by 0.01%,
while MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down by 9.6% (all percentages calculated
on a US dollar basis with net income reinvested).
Over the month, Bangladesh was the strongest performer as political violence,
which had weighed on sentiment in recent weeks, lessened. Foreign
participation in the equity market tripled in cash terms month on month but
remains at exceptionally low absolute levels, comprising just 2% of total
investment.
Also outperforming in June were eastern European Frontier Markets, led by
Bulgaria. The new Bulgarian government was sworn in and the Prime Minister's
economic proposals, outlined in the "Plan Oresharski", have been viewed as
business friendly. Sentiment improved across central and eastern Europe on the
news that the European Commission had released a number of countries from its
Excessive Deficit program. The exception to this was Serbia where the lack of
progress on tackling its debt problem weighed on the market.
In contrast some of the more 'popular' Frontier Markets, notably Kenya and
Nigeria which have performed well over the past 18 months, lost ground. Whilst
we believe that the outlook for Frontier Markets in general is positive, there
are markets where valuations have run ahead of the positive investment case and
we would highlight Kenya in this regard, where the market currently trades on a
"Price to Book" valuation of 4x and is a market where we have substantially
reduced exposure.
Portfolio overview
In June the Company's NAV fell by 3.0%, outperforming the MSCI Frontier Markets
Index by 2.6%. For the calendar year to date the Company's NAV is up by 14.7%,
outperforming the reference index by 3.6% (all percentages calculated on a US
dollar basis with net income reinvested).
The largest individual contributor to performance was Iraq focused energy name,
Westernzagros. The stock rose by 16.5% as talks progressed between Turkey and
the Kurdistan Regional Government to strike a deal that will see oil exported
over the Iraqi/Turkish border. We continue to be excited by developments in
the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). It is interesting to note that over the
last three years not only have majors Total, Chevron and Exxon entered Northern
Iraq, but relations between KRI and their old adversary, Turkey have warmed
sufficiently for such talks to take place.
First Gulf Bank was amongst the stocks performing well following the decision
of MSCI to upgrade the UAE from Frontier to Emerging Markets status as of May
2014. The stock valuation is also supported by a robust balance sheet and high
dividend yield. As this is a Frontier Markets Investment Trust, the Company
will have sold substantially all of its positions in UAE and Qatar prior to
these markets being included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Given the
expected inflow into these markets, we expect to be able to sell our holdings
at a premium to current valuation.
Bangladesh pharmaceutical company Square also performed well, driven by a
combination of increased political stability and international flows to the
market. The prospect of reforms to deepen the equity market in Dhaka also
improved sentiment.
The weakest performer of the month was Vietnamese fertilizer stock,
PetroVietnam Fertiliser, which fell on the back of weaker international urea
prices.
Portfolio Activity
The Company is invested in 53 stocks across 21 markets, including three short
positions.
We initiated a new position in Oman Telecom. The company has a strong network,
growing subscriber base and is trading on price/earnings ratio of 9 and offers
investors an attractive dividend yield of 8%.
We took the decision to sell UAE property developer, Sorouh Real Estate after
the share price had risen by 60% since we purchased the stock. The share price
had performed well driven by sentiment surrounding a deal to merge with fellow
developer, Aldar Properties, which was completed in June.
Market Outlook
Due to the challenges impacting mainstream emerging markets, the numerous
positive developments in Frontier Markets that took place during June, were
missed by many. Pakistan had its first transition between two democratically
elected governments and further advanced talks with the IMF; in stark contrast
Egypt returned to military rule. After years of frustrated hope, Saudi Arabia
moved its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday, in line with all
other countries in the region. This is a clear signal of the country's
intention to further open its market to foreign investors. Vietnam is setting
up an asset management company to absorb bad loans from the banks. Meanwhile,
with the privatization of the electricity distribution companies, Nigeria made
significant progress in its attempt to increase electricity power production
from current available capacity of 4 gigawatts for its 160m population.
Few in the market would have thought that Frontier Markets would be able to
rally, and rally sharply, as Emerging Markets fell, however the data in 2013
confirms this. Year to date the UAE has risen by 38%, Kenya by 29%, Pakistan by
19% and Qatar by 17%. This contrasts with Brazil which has fallen 18% year to
date, South Africa down by 16% and China down by 11%. Frontier Markets are not
without risks, risks that we have highlighted many times before, however those
risks are not the same as those which continue to blight mainstream Emerging
Markets. Dedicated assets under management ("AUM") of funds with exposure to
Emerging Markets at US$1 trillion is about fifty times that of the AUM of funds
with exposure to Frontier Markets, which stands today at around $20bn. We
expect this latter figure to rise substantially from its current exceptionally
low base.
More than 2 billion people live in Frontier Markets but until now they have
attracted little investor attention. With their strong GDP growth (Gross
Domestic Product), positive demographic profile, low debt burden and relatively
low correlation to developed and Emerging Markets, we think Frontier Markets
are a great place to invest for those who have both a long term horizon and
wish to see capital and income growth. In a changing world, we believe that
opportunities abound for unconventional investors.
12 July 2013
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.