Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 August 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Since
month months months year launch*
Sterling:
Share price -0.3% 0.2% -1.2% 3.6% -19.7%
Net asset value 4.2% 2.5% 0.2% 5.4% -13.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 0.6% -0.6% -1.1% -3.1% -17.7%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -1.7% 2.3% -10.0% -3.4% -12.4%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 5.6% 5.8% -0.4% 2.9% -11.3%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.0% 2.6% -1.6% -5.5% -16.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -0.3% 5.5% -10.5% -5.8% -10.7%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 128.19c
Net asset value - cum income: 131.04c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 80.71p
Net asset value - cum income: 82.50p
Share price: 77.50p
Total assets (including income): £78.2m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 6.1%
Gearing: nil
Net yield: 3.4%
Ordinary shares in issue: 94,766,267
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 27.4 Nigeria 16.1
Industrials 13.5 Qatar 13.4
Consumer Staples 13.1 Kazakhstan 9.7
Energy 12.2 Kazakhstan 9.0
Telecommunication 10.4 Saudi Arabia 8.8
Healthcare 6.1 Vietnam 5.3
Consumer Discretionary 5.3 Ukraine 5.0
Utilities 4.2 Iraq 4.7
Materials 3.8 Panama 4.0
Technology 0.5 Croatia 3.8
----- Argentina 3.1
Total 96.5 Bangladesh 2.5
----- Kuwait 2.5
Short positions -2.5 Pan Africa 2.0
===== Romania 1.9
Algeria 1.7
Kenya 1.7
Cambodia 0.9
Slovenia 0.4
-----
96.5
=====
Short positions -2.5
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 29.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08
2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012
% % % % % % % % % % %
Long 101.1 103.4 97.0 106.2 103.9 98.3 100.8 99.2 97.2 101.9 96.5
Short 6.2 4.8 3.2 3.1 5.2 3.0 2.1 0.0 2.6 2.6 2.5
Gross 107.3 108.2 100.2 109.3 109.1 101.3 102.9 99.2 99.8 104.5 99.0
Net 94.9 98.6 93.8 103.1 98.7 95.3 98.7 99.2 94.6 99.3 94.0
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company Country of Risk
Air Arabia Saudi Arabia
Al Mouwasat Saudi Arabia
Commercial Bank of Qatar Qatar
First National Bank of Nigeria Nigeria
Halyk Savings Bank Kazakhstan
Hrvatski Telekomunikacije Croatia
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan
MHP Ukraine
Qatar Electricity & Water Qatar
Zenith Nigeria
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Commentary
The MSCI Frontier Markets Index (NR) returned 2.0% in August with most markets
in the index performing strongly over the month (all calculations on a US
dollar basis with net income reinvested).
Of the larger Frontier Markets, Nigeria was the strongest performer, rising
over 7%. The Nigerian market has returned 18% year to date, with the currency
appreciating 5% (against the US dollar). Nigerian Treasury bill rates have
fallen from recent highs, amidst improving confidence and liquidity within the
banking system motivating domestic investors to increase their weightings in
equities.
Volumes on the Dhaka bourse reached a four-month high driven by domestic retail
investors. The Bangladesh economy is sustaining resilient growth levels in
spite of numerous challenges, including a twin deficit, double digit inflation,
and slowing textiles exports. Remittance growth has picked sharply in 2012,
supporting the currency and foreign exchange reserves.
The weakest performer in August was the Vietnamese market. Investors were
shaken by the arrest of senior figures at Asian Commercial Bank; founder,
Nguyen Duc Kien and CEO, Ly Xuan Hai were both detained unexpectedly sparking
fears of a bank run, which were subsequently contained. The arrests reflects an
ongoing power struggle within the Vietnamese Communist Party to rescind the
powers of the current Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, who is perceived to be
responsible for the excessive leverage of Vietnam's state owned enterprises.
Portfolio Commentary
The Company's NAV increased by 5.6% in August, outperforming the benchmark by
3.6%.For the calendar year-to date from 1 January 2012, the Company's NAV has
outperformed the MSCI Frontier Markets Index by 9.4% (all calculations on a US
dollar basis with net income reinvested).
In August, stock selection was the primary driver of outperformance with
positions held by the Company rising over 15% across a number of markets.
The strongest individual contributor to performance was Ukrainian poultry
producer, MHP. The company continued its strong growth trajectory, reporting
24% increase in revenue and 52% increase in operating profit in the first half
of 2012, compared to the first half of 2011. The company is poised to double
poultry capacity over the next five years and is self-sufficient in grain
production.
The Company's holding in Kuwaiti telecom, Wataniya was also a strong performer,
increasing in value by 16% in August. Qatar Telecom announced a formal offer
to take the company private at a 20% premium over the pre-deal price. The deal
was approved by the Kuwaiti capital markets authority, ending the month long
trading suspension.
In Kazakhstan, the Company's holding in financial, Halyk Bank rose strongly on
the announcement of first half results which saw profits increase by 50%. The
bank also announced an intention to pay dividends going forward, given its
surplus capital position. The results were illustrative of the potential of a
number of banking stocks across Frontier markets, whose profits have recovered
after a prolonged bad debt cycle supported by well-capitalised and liquid
balance sheets.
The main detractor from performance in August was Vietnamese confectionary
company Kinh Do. The stock was impacted by the general malaise after the
high-profile arrest of two Vietnamese businessmen, while sales volumes have
suffered this year from weak macroeconomic conditions. The company's underlying
franchise is strong, underpinned by its strong distribution reach across
160,000 points of sales nationwide.
Portfolio Activity
In August, the Company opened a new position in tobacco company BAT Bangladesh.
BAT Bangladesh has a 60% revenue share of the domestic market and trades on
just 10x forward price to earnings, the cheapest of listed BAT subsidiaries
globally.
The team added to the position in Romanian media company Central European Media
Enterprises. Time Warner, which owns 49% of the company, has an option to
become a majority shareholder and has acquired the stock at a significant
premiums in the past. It is a stark contrast that the company's bonds have
rallied strongly year to date, while the equity has languished.
The fund exited the position in Ukrainian sunflower oil company, Kernel, given
the likelihood of a poor harvest and higher prices for oil, both of which would
negatively impact margins.
Outlook
Global markets have rallied in anticipation of further monetary easing by both
the Federal Reserve and ECB. New bond buying initiatives by the ECB have
significantly reduced European risk premiums and suggest that there is greater
political willpower within the Eurozone to address immediate sovereign debt
risks across peripheral Europe. Nevertheless, most investors remain bearishly
positioned with respect to European financial risk. As such, markets are likely
to continue rallying as long as the ECB lives up to its promises. The Company
is likely to perform well in this environment with the overweight positions in
Kazakhstan and Ukraine, where stocks, despite strong underlying operating
performance have been unfairly punished due to heightened European risk
aversion.
While developed markets demonstrated signs of healing, the Chinese economy
continued to disappoint, working through the imbalances created by the 2009-10
credit fuelled stimulus. Despite headlines of new infrastructure project
approvals at the state level, incentivisation and funding at a local level
remains scarce. Although near-term sentiment on China may well be excessively
pessimistic, we believe caution is warranted as China transitions to a slower
growth path, despite averting a hard landing.
The Company remains optimistic on the outlook for Frontier Markets, which stand
out for their low valuations and high dividend yields. In an environment of low
interest rates and easing risk aversion, Frontier Markets will continue to
benefit from capital flows in search of yield and structural growth. Several
Frontier Markets, having undergone domestic banking crisis of their own in
recent years, have witnessed significant restructuring and reforms, and have
low debt burdens, which leaves them well-placed relative to emerging and
developed peers to support growth.
17 September 2012
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.