Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 28 February 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price 6.3% 9.4% 12.4% 27.6% 33.0% 33.3%
Net asset value -0.7% 4.1% 6.6% 16.2% 35.8% 25.5%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 1.4% 4.2% 6.1% 10.7% 20.8% 10.0%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 1.3% -6.9% -3.3% -14.9% -8.6% -12.5%
US Dollars:
Net asset value 1.3% 6.5% 15.5% 28.3% 40.1% 35.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 3.4% 6.6% 15.0% 22.3% 24.5% 18.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.3% -4.8% 4.8% -6.0% -5.8% -6.0%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 189.15c
Net asset value - cum income: 189.75c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 112.87p
Net asset value - cum income: 113.22p
Share price: 122.50p
Total assets (including income): £170.5m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 8.2%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield: 2.8%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
*Yield calculations are based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as
at the date of the release of this announcement. The 2013 interim dividend of
2.00 cents per share and the special interim dividend of 3.40 cents per share
announced on 30 May 2013, paid to shareholders on 5 July 2013. The interim and
special dividends announced on 30 May 2013 that total 5.40 cents per share
(3.45003 pence per share) are the total dividends for the financial year ending
30 September 2013. The special dividend represents the final dividend which is
normally paid in March each year.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 26.9 Qatar 13.2
Energy 19.5 Nigeria 9.3
Telecommunication 13.4 United Arab Emirates 9.2
Consumer Staples 10.5 Saudi Arabia 8.8
Health Care 9.2 Bangladesh 7.7
Industrials 7.8 Kuwait 6.4
Materials 7.0 Pakistan 5.4
Consumer Discretionary 5.3 Sri Lanka 5.4
Utilities 2.2 Kazakhstan 5.2
----- Iraq 5.1
Total 101.8 Oman 3.8
----- Vietnam 3.4
Short positions -1.8 Turkmenistan 3.2
===== Ukraine 2.5
Slovenia 2.3
Argentina 2.2
Romania 2.0
Estonia 1.5
Kyrgyzstan 1.5
Panama 1.4
Croatia 1.2
Pan Africa 0.7
Kenya 0.3
Other 0.1
-----
101.8
=====
Short positions -1.8
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 99.5 99.2 99.8 95.9 103.2 98.9 98.8 100.4 100.5 103.3 96.6 101.8
Short 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8
Gross 100.7 100.4 100.9 98.4 106.2 102.2 100.2 102.0 102.1 104.8 98.3 103.6
Net 98.3 98.0 98.7 93.4 100.2 95.6 97.4 98.8 98.9 101.8 94.9 100.0
Ten Largest Equity Investments
Company assets Country of Risk % of gross
Qatar National Bank Qatar 4.3%
Zenith Bank Nigeria 4.2%
Qatar Gas Transport Qatar 3.3%
Dragon Oil Turkmenistan 3.2%
Kuwait Food Kuwait 3.2%
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 3.2%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 3.1%
Emaar Properties United Arab Emirates 3.1%
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Iraq 3.0%
Ooredoo Qatar 3.0%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht and Emily Fletcher, representing the
Investment Manager noted:
Markets
In February, the MSCI Frontier Market Index returned 3.4% in US dollar
basis with net income reinvested, performing broadly in line with
mainstream emerging markets.
The positive performance was driven by buoyant markets across the Middle
East and North Africa. Qatar and the UAE continued their strong run in the
lead up to the migration to the Emerging Market index which is due to
happen at the end of May 2014.
We have previously highlighted our concern about changes in personnel at
the Nigerian central bank. In February, sharp falls in the market were
prompted by the removal of central bank governor Lamido Sanusi who had
been largely credited with restoring credibility to the Nigerian financial
system, following the financial crisis.
The change, which was undertaken for political reasons, placed downward
pressure on the naira and the uncertainty surrounding future monetary
policy weighed on financial markets.
Post the month end, events in Ukraine took centre stage as political turmoil
saw the removal of President Yanukovych, and Russia mobilise troops to defend
strategic assets in Crimea. The military moves have so far have had limited
direct impact on companies, but the market is clearly intensely worried about
the rising geopolitical tensions.
We anticipate that Ukraine will require International Monetary Fund support
and may well further devalue its currency as part of that process. Most
Ukrainian corporates are involved in agriculture and mining and hence would
ultimately benefit from a cheaper currency, but this is of secondary
consideration to the impact of risk on valuations.
Portfolio
The Company returned 1.3% in February, underperforming the benchmark by 2.1%.
The largest individual detractor from performance was Kazakh financial, Halyk
Bank. Despite ample foreign reserves, the central bank decided to devalue the
tenge by nearly 20% for competitive reasons. The central bank released a
statement explaining the decision saying “The need to restore the external
competitiveness of the tenge exchange rate [with the Russian ruble], the
balance of trade of the economy, and maintain the competitiveness of domestic
producers has necessitated changes to the national bank’s monetary policyâ€.
We see limited impact on Halyk’s balance sheet from the devaluation, considering
the bank’s high level of capitalization and small long foreign exchange position.
Positive contributors to performance included Iraqi focussed oil producer,
Genel. In February, the company announced that it had completed the pipeline
infrastructure to export Kurdish crude to Turkey. The prospect of a revenue
sharing deal between the governments of Baghdad and Kurdistan is increasing.
The finalization of such a deal would allow Genel to increase production in
Northern Iraq by 50%.
Activity
In February, the Company initiated a new position in Qatari Telecom operator,
Ooredoo (formerly QTel). Despite short-term competitive and cost pressures,
our Company is positive on the longer term growth outlook given Ooredoo’s
exposure to underpenetrated mobile markets in Iraq, North Africa and Myanmar.
We reduced exposure to UAE property developer Emaar, taking profits after a
strong run and also reflecting our decision to reduce exposure to the UAE
market which had risen nearly 120% since 2013.
Outlook
The Company continues to see significant upside to many Frontier Markets.
There are a wide variety of stocks across south east Asia and the Middle
East that offer significant growth, value and yield. While the economic
and indeed political situations in many of these countries are not without
risk, we feel that valuations in these countries more than reflect the
challenges of doing business.
We note that there has been a surge in inflows into Frontier Markets from
both frontier funds and higher allocations from Emerging Market funds.
While Frontier Markets as a whole remain underinvested as an asset class,
we are concerned about the rate at which global portfolio money has been
deployed in selective markets, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In
addition, we are increasingly concerned about the current account deficits
of several sub-Saharan economies such as Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania
and Uganda. For entirely different reasons, we also reiterate our caution
on the UAE. This is because we feel it is likely that there will be significant
differentiation within the asset class going forward. We are considerably
more positive on markets such as Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh which offer
considerably better growth and valuation prospects amidst improving
economic fundamentals and still low levels of foreign ownership
17 March 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.