Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 March 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price -3.7% 3.1% 7.3% 16.6% 41.9% 28.4%
Net asset value -0.4% 1.4% 7.8% 15.6% 30.6% 25.0%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 3.5% 6.7% 11.2% 13.8% 21.7% 13.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.6% -1.1% -1.5% -10.2% -11.9% -9.4%
US Dollars:
Net asset value -0.9% 2.1% 11.0% 27.0% 36.0% 33.8%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 2.9% 7.4% 14.4% 25.0% 26.6% 21.7%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 3.1% -0.4% 1.4% -1.4% -8.3% -3.1%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 184.99c
Net asset value - cum income: 188.07c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 110.96p
Net asset value - cum income: 112.80p
Share price: 118.00p
Total assets (including income): £169.9m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 4.6%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield: 2.7%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
*Yield calculations are based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as
at the date of the release of this announcement. The 2013 interim dividend of
2.00 cents per share and the special interim dividend of 3.40 cents per share
announced on 30 May 2013 were paid to shareholders on 5 July 2013. These combined
interim and special dividends of 5.40 cents per share (3.23892 pence per share)
represent the total dividends for the financial year ending 30 September 2013
(the special dividend representing the final dividend which is normally paid in
March each year).
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 26.5 Qatar 12.5
Energy 18.1 Saudi Arabia 10.0
Telecommunication 13.4 United Arab Emirates 8.5
Consumer Staples 11.6 Nigeria 8.2
Health Care 9.9 Bangladesh 7.6
Materials 7.2 Kuwait 7.4
Consumer Discretionary 6.3 Pakistan 5.9
Industrials 6.2 Kazakhstan 5.8
Utilities 2.3 Sri Lanka 5.2
----- Oman 3.7
Total 101.5 Iraq 3.6
----- Vietnam 3.6
Short positions -1.7 Ukraine 3.4
===== Turkmenistan 3.0
Argentina 2.5
Romania 2.5
Slovenia 2.3
Kyrgyzstan 1.6
Panama 1.4
Estonia 1.3
Croatia 1.2
Kenya 0.2
Other 0.1
-----
101.5
=====
Short positions -1.7
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 99.2 99.8 95.9 103.2 98.9 98.8 100.4 100.5 103.3 96.6 101.8 101.5
Short 1.2 1.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7
Gross 100.4 100.9 98.4 106.2 102.2 100.2 102.0 102.1 104.8 98.3 103.6 103.3
Net 98.0 98.7 93.4 100.2 95.6 97.4 98.8 98.9 101.8 94.9 100.0 99.8
Ten Largest Equity Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Qatar National Bank Qatar 4.2
Zenith Bank Nigeria 4.0
Kuwait Food Kuwait 4.0
Emaar Properties United Arab Emirates 3.4
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 3.4
KazMunaiGas Exploration Production Kazakhstan 3.1
Qatar Gas Transport Qatar 3.1
Dragon Oil Turkmenistan 3.0
Square Pharmaceuticals Bangladesh 2.8
Ooredoo Qatar 2.8
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Markets
In March, the MSCI Frontier Market Index returned 2.9% in US$ terms with net
income reinvested, performing broadly in line with mainstream emerging markets.
Argentina was the strongest Frontier Market performer over the month. Recent
developments suggest that the current government will adopt a more pragmatic
approach to economics and financial markets. The settlement with Repsol on the
appropriation of energy company YPF was confirmed and the central bank's
efforts to stem capital outflows by hiking rates and curtailing domestic banks'
ability to hold US dollars have contributed to stability in the currency after
the recent devaluation. However, the government continues to run a highly
expansionary fiscal policy which undermines long-term stability.
The Kuwaiti market, which has lagged the broader Frontier Market universe for
much of the last three years, outperformed in March. Sentiment in the Kuwaiti
market is improving, considering a positive economic backdrop and better
earnings outlook for the largest stocks in the index - Telecom company Zain and
financial National Bank of Kuwait. Both companies are likely to post positive
earnings growth in 2014, after three years of declining or negative growth.
Ukraine was the weakest performer over the month as events in Kiev, Crimea and
the east of the country took centre stage. A referendum on 16 March resulted in
a declaration of secession of Crimea from Ukraine, with the European Union and
the United States disputing the legality of the plebiscite. Consequently,
travel bans and asset freezes were placed on several Russian and Crimean
officials. In subsequent weeks, tensions have subsided somewhat as Vladimir
Putin ordered a partial withdrawal of troops on the Russian border with Eastern
Ukraine.
Portfolio
The Company's NAV returned -0.9% in March, significantly underperforming the
benchmark by 3.8%(all calculations in US dollar terms with net income
reinvested).
The Company's exposure to Northern Iraq was the largest detractor for
performance over the month. Specifically, Gulf Keystone, a long-term holding of
the Company, announced poor reserve figures during the month which sent the
stock sharply lower. We believe that the pessimism is overdone as the stock is
still inexpensive on the current reserves and the company's successful bond
issue secures financing for ongoing exploration and production.
The Company's portfolio has been underweight the Kuwaiti market for over three
years. This hurt relative performance during the month. The Company has
gradually increased exposure to Kuwait adding to specific stocks such as Zain
and Kuwaiti Foods.
Kazakhstan also detracted from performance over the month with the share price
of financial Halyk Bank falling by over 10%. This can be attributed largely to
the contagion from ongoing tensions in other parts of the CIS and the aftermath
of the competitive devaluation of the Tenge in February. The Company took
advantage of cheaper valuations to add to the position, given the unchanged
fundamental view on the stock
Positions in Saudi Arabia performed well. Saudi consumer stocks rallied after
the short-lived pessimism and disruption from the clampdown of illegal foreign
workers in the fourth quarter of 2013. The economic backdrop remains positive,
partially offsetting higher labour costs. The Company is nevertheless concerned
about the rising valuations of several Saudi Consumer stocks despite a weaker
earnings outlook.
Activity
In March the Company rotated the Saudi Arabian health care exposure into Dallah
from Al Mouwasat. The Company has held Mouwasat since inception and with the
stock having returned over 150% over the last two years, we thought it a good
time to take profits. Dallah operates a prime hospital complex in Riyadh and
enjoys pricing power. We expect that better earnings momentum will be provided
by the increased utilisation of a new paediatric wing, where demand is very
strong.
Outlook
We continue to see significant upside to many Frontier Markets. There are a
wide variety of stocks in countries as diverse as Bangladesh, Estonia, Iraq,
Romania, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka that offer significant growth,
value and yield. While the economic and political situations in many of these
countries are not without risk, we feel that valuations in these countries more
than reflect the challenges of doing business.
There has been a surge in inflows into Frontier Markets from both Frontier
funds and higher allocations from Emerging Market funds. While Frontier Markets
as a whole remain underinvested as an asset class, we are concerned about the
rate at which global portfolio money has been deployed in selective markets,
particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. We are increasingly concerned about the
budget and current account deficits of several sub-Saharan economies including
Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania and Uganda.
It is likely that there will be significant differentiation within the asset
class going forward. One of the favourable characteristics of the Frontier
asset class is the wide opportunity set in terms of markets and sectors and the
lack of correlation between different markets. We are more positive on markets
such as Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh which offer considerably better growth and
valuation prospects amidst improving economic fundamentals and still low levels
of foreign ownership.
11 April 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.