Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 October 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price -3.4% -1.2% 7.1% 11.8% 81.2% 38.6%
Net asset value -4.0% 0.2% 4.0% 13.3% 68.5% 34.8%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -3.1% 0.7% 8.4% 21.8% 54.8% 28.8%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 2.5% 1.1% 9.5% 1.1% 11.0% -1.7%
US Dollars:
Share Price -4.7% -6.4% 1.4% 11.3% 79.8% 42.6%
Net asset value -5.3% -5.0% -1.5% 12.7% 67.2% 38.5%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -4.4% -4.6% 2.8% 21.3% 53.4% 32.2%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) 1.2% -4.2% 3.7% 0.6% 10.0% 0.9%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 188.18c
Net asset value - cum income: 192.53c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 117.63p
Net asset value - cum income: 120.35p
Share price: 126.00p
Total assets (including income): £181.3m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 4.7%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield*: 1.1%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
Ongoing charges**: 1.6%
Ongoing charges plus taxation and performance fee: 2.6%
*The Company's yield based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as at
the date of the release of this announcement is 1.1% and includes the 2014
interim dividend of 2.25 cents per share announced on 20 May 2014 and payable
to shareholders on 4 July 2014. However, as previously announced, a special
dividend of 3.40c per share (representing the Company's earnings for the period
from 1 April 2013 to 30 September 2013) was paid early in 2013 to avoid revenue
dilution as a result of the Company's C-Share issue which was completed on 29
September 2013. If this dividend had been paid as a final dividend for 2013,
the Company's yield would be 2.8%.
**Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding performance fees and interest costs for the year ended 30 September
2013.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.5 Kuwait 13.2
Consumer Staples 17.1 Bangladesh 8.8
Energy 14.7 Pakistan 8.6
Telecommunication 13.7 Sri Lanka 7.2
Consumer Discretionary 8.1 Saudi Arabia 7.1
Industrials 6.9 Nigeria 6.8
Health Care 5.4 Kazakhstan 6.7
Utilities 3.0 Oman 5.8
Materials 1.5 Ukraine 5.6
----- Romania 5.4
Total 99.9 Argentina 5.3
----- Vietnam 4.3
Short positions -1.5 Iraq 3.6
----- Morocco 3.1
Turkmenistan 2.9
Slovenia 2.1
Other 3.4
-----
99.9
=====
Short positions -1.5
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10
2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 100.5 103.3 96.6 101.8 101.6 101.6 98.0 106.6 100.8 98.7 100.0 99.9
Short 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.5
Gross 102.1 104.8 98.3 103.6 103.3 103.6 99.7 108.3 102.4 100.3 100.8 101.4
Net 98.9 101.8 94.9 100.0 99.9 99.6 96.3 104.9 99.2 97.1 99.2 98.4
Ten Largest Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Kuwait Food Kuwait 5.6%
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 5.1%
MHP Ukraine 4.9%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 3.8%
Bank Muscat Oman 3.5%
Banco Macro Argentina 3.3%
Square Pharmaceuticals Bangladesh 3.3%
Zenith Bank Nigeria 3.2%
BRD Societe Generale Romania 3.1%
Maroc Telecom Morocco 3.1%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Performance
During October, the MSCI Frontier Market Index returned -4.4% (on a US dollar
basis with net income reinvested), in the first significantly negative month
since June 2013.
Having strongly outperformed MSCI Emerging Markets in September, rising by 0.4%
vs a fall of 7.6%, Frontier Markets were unable to sustain this
outperformance. Investors' attention was focussed on whether current global
growth is sufficiently strong to be self-sustaining as the Federal Reserve's
Quantitative Easing programme is brought to a close with the move in the US
bond market and the crude oil price suggesting that this was not current
consensus.
The decline in the price of oil had implications for a number of Frontier
Markets. Oil exporting countries came under pressure as the oil price declined.
For the last 4 years oil prices have been remarkably stable, trading in a
steady range between $90/bbl and $120/bbl. The oil price has moved through the
bottom of this range in recent weeks. From the beginning of September to the
end of October the spot oil price fell nearly 20% to around $84/bbl.
In this environment, Nigeria was one of the weakest performers. Whilst Nigeria
attempts to maintain a pegged exchange rate to the USD, a sustained lower oil
price will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves. With presidential
elections due to be held in February, investors were concerned that the Central
Bank would not raise interest rates enough to offset capital outflows.
Beneficiaries of the oil price move include Bangladesh. The market performed
well in October as external balances improved. Foreign exchange reserves hit a
record high in October, buoyed by a reduced energy import bill, higher exports
and a rebound in remittances.
Company Performance
In October, the Company's NAV per share returned -5.3%, underperforming the
benchmark by 0.9%. (All calculations on a US dollar basis with net income
reinvested.)
The Company's underweight position in Nigeria was beneficial for relative
performance. The underweight position has been driven by the increasing
build-up of imbalances in the Nigerian economy and the policy of the central
bank to attempt to defend the currency. The recent drop in the oil price has
exposed these dynamics. However, we have often highlighted that we are
comfortable with taking appropriately priced risk. As the Nigerian market and
currency falls, the price at which these assets become interesting comes ever
closer.
Company positions in Saudi Arabia were also positive contributors to relative
performance. Despite the oil price move, Saudi is a stronger position than
Nigeria to weather the lower price environment. Although the government budget
will likely move into deficit at an oil price of $85/bbl, a large pool of
savings and low debt mean that the pressure to tighten fiscal policy is low,
although this situation will be unable to persist indefinitely.
Iraqi positions were detractors from performance during the month. The security
situation in the North of country has placed pressure on the fiscal position of
the Kurdistan region, impacting the cash flow of operators in the region.
Portfolio Activity
We added to the position in Bangladeshi biscuit producer, Olympic Industries.
The company has a superior distribution model, benefitting from its greater
scale and cheaper financing, relative to peers. Despite this, we see the
valuation as attractive, with a growth potential comparable to mainstream
Emerging Markets such as India and Turkey.
Outlook
In general Frontier Markets remain more sensitive to indigenous economic and
political developments than their Emerging Market Peers. We note markets as
diverse as Argentina, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, which have rallied
strongly this year for disparate domestic reasons and diverse macroeconomic
factors. What is also notable is the stronger export performance of several
Frontier Markets compared to their emerging peers, partly aided by low labour
costs and relatively under developed manufacturing sectors. Vietnam's exports
for instance have risen 14% for the year to August compared to the same period
in 2013, an especially strong performance in the context of other Asian
markets.
The portfolio remains underweight in Nigeria, where market performance may be
constrained by a lacklustre earnings outlook and pressure on the currency and
reserves particularly in the context of a weaker and more volatile oil price
than we have seen for the last few years.
21 November 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on BlackRock's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.