Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 30 September 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price 4.8% 9.5% 11.8% 20.0% 91.5% 43.6%
Net asset value 2.5% 4.2% 12.4% 21.1% 75.6% 40.5%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 3.2% 7.1% 16.9% 29.9% 57.6% 33.0%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -5.2% 1.8% 5.8% 4.2% 18.3% -4.1%
US Dollars:
Share Price 2.3% 3.9% 8.8% 20.1% 99.4% 49.6%
Net asset value 0.0% -1.2% 9.3% 21.2% 82.9% 46.2%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) 0.7% 1.5% 13.6% 30.0% 64.0% 38.3%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -7.4% -3.5% 2.9% 4.3% 23.2% -0.3%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 198.98c
Net asset value - cum income: 203.25c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 122.73p
Net asset value - cum income: 125.37p
Share price: 130.50p
Total assets (including income): £188.8m
Premium to cum-income NAV: 4.1%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield*: 1.0%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
Ongoing charges**: 1.6%
Ongoing charges plus taxation and performance fee: 2.6%
*The Company's yield based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as at
the date of the release of this announcement is 1.0% and includes the 2014
interim dividend of 2.25 cents per share announced on 20 May 2014 and payable
to shareholders on 4 July 2014. However, as previously announced, a special
dividend of 3.40c per share (representing the Company's earnings for the period
from 1 April 2013 to 30 September 2013) was paid early in 2013 to avoid revenue
dilution as a result of the Company's C-Share issue which was completed on 29
September 2013. If this dividend had been paid as a final dividend for 2013,
the Company's yield would be 2.7%.
**Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding performance fees and interest costs for the year ended 30 September
2013.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 30.7 Kuwait 12.8
Consumer Staples 17.6 Nigeria 9.2
Energy 15.4 Pakistan 8.1
Telecommunication 12.9 Bangladesh 7.7
Consumer Discretionary 7.6 Saudi Arabia 7.0
Industrials 6.5 Kazakhstan 6.9
Health Care 5.0 Sri Lanka 6.6
Utilities 2.5 Ukraine 6.1
Materials 1.8 Oman 5.6
----- Romania 5.5
Total 100.0 Argentina 4.5
----- Vietnam 4.1
Short positions -0.8 Iraq 4.1
===== Morocco 3.0
Turkmenistan 2.9
Slovenia 2.1
Other 3.8
-----
100.0
=====
Short positions -0.8
=====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs)
Market Exposure
31.10 30.11 31.12 31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09
2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 100.4 100.5 103.3 96.6 101.8 101.6 101.6 98.0 106.6 100.8 98.7 100.0
Short 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.8
Gross 102.0 102.1 104.8 98.3 103.6 103.3 103.6 99.7 108.3 102.4 100.3 100.8
Net 98.8 98.9 101.8 94.9 100.0 99.9 99.6 96.3 104.9 99.2 97.1 99.2
Ten Largest Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Kuwait Food Kuwait 5.3%
MHP Ukraine 5.2%
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 5.1%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 4.2%
Zenith Bank Nigeria 4.1%
Bank Muscat Oman 3.5%
BRD Societe Generale Romania 3.2%
Herfy Foods Saudi Arabia 3.1%
Maroc Telecom Morocco 3.0%
Banco Macro Argentina 2.9%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Performance
During September, the MSCI Frontier Market Index returned 0.7% (on a US dollar
basis with net income reinvested). This contrasted to the sell-off observed in
mainstream Emerging Markets where all of 2014 gains were erased in a single
month. The Emerging Market decline was precipitated by weak macroeconomic data
emanating from China and concerns over a strengthening US dollar which could
precipitate capital outflows.
Bangladesh was the strongest individual market during the month, rising 16%.
Bangladesh is now the best performing Frontier Market in 2014 having risen 60%.
This has been supported by improving banking liquidity and diminished political
concerns following the conclusion of the January 2014 elections.
Argentina continued its volatile trend, rising 12%. The UN has intervened in
the ongoing saga to restructure its sovereign debt, an issue which dates from
2001. The UN passed a resolution calling for the launch of negotiations to
create a framework for sovereign debt restructuring.
Vietnam was one of the weakest performers during the month, falling 7% after
rising nearly 30% year to date. Vietnam continues to witness a gradual cyclical
recovery, supported by favourable monetary conditions with benchmark interest
rates and inflation at 4 year lows. However the market had run ahead of itself
on expectations that a hike in foreign ownership limits would be implemented
this year.
Romania also underperformed in September due to weak economic growth, and
concerns that there would be a rise in banking provisions due to a regulatory
review of asset quality.
Company Performance
In September, the Company's NAV per share was flat, underperforming the
benchmark by 0.7%. (All calculations on a US dollar basis with net income
reinvested.)
The single largest detractor from performance was Iraqi energy stock, Gulf
Keystone. The share price has been impacted by violence in central Iraq, and
consequent concerns that this would delay cash payments to the company for
ongoing production. The formation of a new Iraqi government may be a positive
step to help unblock this process, but the political situation remains in flux.
Positions in Sri Lanka, particularly in the financial holding, Hatton Bank,
contributed positively to performance. The Sri Lankan economy is witnessing a
quiet revival, while the market has been lagging the Frontiers universe.
Balance of payments conditions are improving, driven by rising Foreign Direct
Investment, workers' remittances and tourism. For the year to August, tourism
earnings are up 34% compared to the previous year. We therefore remain positive
on the outlook for the market.
Shares in Kuwaiti quick service restaurants and food company, Kuwait Foods,
were suspended at the request of the company during September. The stock has
been driven up by takeover speculation from both global private equity
companies and a Saudi entity. We believe, irrespective of Mergers &
Acquisitions speculation that the shares remain undervalued relative to global
peers.
Portfolio Activity
We sold the position in Pakistan conglomerate, Engro Corp, switching into
subsidiary Engro Foods. Engro Foods is set to recapture market share and
increase margins, while sister company, Engro Fertiliser faces ongoing
challenges from a rise in gas prices.
Outlook
In general, Frontier Markets remain more sensitive to endogenous economic and
political developments than their Emerging Market peers. We note markets as
diverse as Argentina, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, which have rallied
strongly this year for disparate domestic reasons and diverse macroeconomic
factors. What is also notable is the stronger export performance of several
Frontier Markets compared to their emerging peers, partly aided by low labour
costs and relatively under developed manufacturing sectors. Vietnam's exports
for instance have risen 14% for the year to August compared to the same period
in 2013.
The Company remains underweight in Nigeria, where market performance may be
constrained by a lacklustre earnings outlook, pressure on the currency and
reserves amidst risks of economic disruption from both security and Ebola
concerns.
We remain overweight in Romania. Economic data points have been disappointing
in recent quarters driven by a slowdown in investment, which was hampered by
rising taxes and a slowdown in decision making prior to elections. However, the
banking system is at the final stages of a lengthy deleveraging exercise, with
the banking loan to deposit ratio falling below 100% and banks having largely
provided for legacy bad loans.
17 October 2014
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
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terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on BlackRock's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.