Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK FRONTIERS INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
All information is at 31 December 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three Six One Three Since
month months months year years launch*
Sterling:
Share price -8.2% -14.8% -6.7% -1.9% 65.8% 22.3%
Net asset value -1.9% -7.8% -4.0% 5.0% 61.1% 29.4%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -3.6% -9.0% -2.5% 13.5% 45.9% 21.0%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -4.2% -0.7% 1.1% 3.9% 12.3% -4.8%
US Dollars:
Share Price -8.6% -18.1% -14.9% -7.6% 66.5% 22.6%
Net asset value -2.3% -11.4% -12.5% -1.1% 61.8% 29.6%
MSCI Frontiers Index (NR) -4.0% -12.5% -11.1% 6.8% 46.4% 21.0%
MSCI EM Markets (NR) -4.6% -4.5% -7.8% -2.2% 12.6% -4.8%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* 17 December 2010.
At month end
US Dollar:
Net asset value - capital only: 175.95c
Net asset value - cum income: 180.15c
Sterling:
Net asset value - capital only: 112.84p
Net asset value - cum income: 115.53p
Share price: 111.13p
Total assets (including income): £174.0m
Discount to cum-income NAV: 3.8%
Gearing: nil
Gearing range (as a % of gross assets): 0-20%
Net yield*: 3.5%
Ordinary shares in issue: 150,621,621
Ongoing charges**: 1.5%
Ongoing charges plus taxation and performance fee: 1.5%
*The Company's yield based on dividends announced in the last 12 months as at
the date of the release of this announcement is 3.5% and includes the 2014
final dividend of 4.00 cents per share declared on 1 December 2014, payable to
shareholders on 20 February 2015 and the 2014 interim dividend of 2.25 cents
per share announced on 20 May 2014 and paid to shareholders on 4 July 2014.
**Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding performance fees and interest costs for the year ended 30 September
2014.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Gross assets(%)* Country Analysis Gross assets(%)*
Financials 29.9 Kuwait 11.8
Energy 15.2 Pakistan 10.4
Consumer Staples 15.1 Bangladesh 9.8
Telecommunications 12.1 Sri Lanka 8.2
Consumer Discretionary 7.2 Kazakhstan 7.3
Industrials 6.6 Argentina 6.0
Health Care 5.9 Romania 5.8
Utilities 3.9 Morocco 5.3
Materials 1.6 Ukraine 4.7
Information Technology 1.1 Vietnam 4.7
---- Nigeria 4.5
Total 98.6 Saudi Arabia 4.0
---- Iraq 3.9
Short positions -2.6 Turkmenistan 3.0
==== Oman 2.6
Slovenia 2.1
Other 4.5
----
Total 98.6
----
Short positions -2.6
====
*reflects gross market exposure from contracts for difference (CFDs).
Market Exposure
31.01 28.02 31.03 30.04 31.05 30.06 31.07 31.08 30.09 31.10 30.11 31.12
2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
% % % % % % % % % % % %
Long 96.6 101.8 101.6 101.6 98.0 106.6 100.8 98.7 100.0 99.9 97.9 98.6
Short 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.8 2.6
Gross 98.3 103.6 103.3 103.6 99.7 108.3 102.4 100.3 100.8 101.4 100.7 101.2
Net 94.9 100.0 99.9 99.6 96.3 104.9 99.2 97.1 99.2 98.4 95.1 96.0
Ten Largest Investments
Company Country of Risk % of gross assets
Kuwait Food Kuwait 4.8%
Mobile Telecommunications Kuwait 4.8%
MHP Ukraine 4.5%
Hub Power Pakistan 3.9%
Halyk Bank Kazakhstan 3.8%
Square Pharmaceuticals Bangladesh 3.8%
Banco Macro Argentina 3.7%
KazMunaiGas Exploration Production Kazakhstan 3.5%
BRD Societe Generale Romania 3.4%
Maroc Telecom Morocco 3.1%
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market Performance
During December, the MSCI Frontier Market Index fell by 4.0% (on a US dollar
basis with net income reinvested).
In the final quarter of 2014, the collapse in crude oil prices (which fell more
than 40%) was a significant driver of Frontier Markets. It is hardly
surprising that Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Oman, all significant oil
export countries, were the worst performers over this period, falling by 26%,
23%, 21% and 16% respectively.
In contrast, there are a number of countries in Frontier Markets which will
experience a substantial benefit from the fall in crude prices. The best
performing markets in December were Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan which
rose by 7.9%, 4.6% and 3.5% respectively. As a result of the fall in crude oil
prices, these countries are expected to see substantial improvements in their
current account balances which will likely remain supportive of performance.
Tunisia was also one of the better performing markets, rising by 1.5% following
the Presidential vote which was won by Beji Caid Essebsi, head of the secular
Nidaa Tounes party.
Nigeria is one of the countries most affected by the fall in crude price as oil
represents 95% of the country's exports. The Nigerian Naira is currently soft
pegged to the US dollar and maintaining this peg is fast depleting the
country's foreign exchange reserves. In reaction to this, in December, the
Central Bank introduced restrictions on trading Naira by requiring banks to
have a zero net open position at the end of each day. This resulted in a
substantial reduction in Naira and market liquidity.
While Nigeria has many long term attractions, we are deeply concerned about the
near term outlook. With an election just 4 weeks away, growing violence in the
north-east, a currency that appears to many investors as meaningfully
overvalued, and too many foreign investors exposed to highly illiquid stocks,
we have scaled back our exposure from over 12% in June to just 4.5% at the end
of December. For reference the Index weight in Nigeria is 16.2%.
Company performance
In December, the BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust's NAV per share fell by
2.3%, outperforming the benchmark by 1.7%. (All calculations on a US dollar basis
with net income reinvested.)
The Company benefited from strong performance in a number of South Asian
stocks. We highlight Sri Lankan stock, Chevron Lubricants (up by 17%) as a
direct beneficiary of falling oil prices which will lead to higher margins.
Pakistani stock, Hub Power Company, was also a strong performer, rising by 9%
over the month as investors concluded that the falling crude price was likely
to ease pressure on the circular debt situation in the energy and electricity
sector.
Over the course of 2014, we reduced exposure to energy stocks and energy
exporting countries by over 30% and the resultant portfolio which is
underweight oil exporters vs overweight oil importers has contributed to recent
positive relative performance. In December, the strongest contributors to
relative performance came from underweight positions in Kuwait and stock
selection in Argentina and Morocco. It is worth highlighting that certain
energy-related stocks have been unfairly punished in this indiscriminate
sell-off, and we anticipate using further price weakness to add or buy such
names.
We also note that the strong mid-month relative performance, which arose in
part from the substantial underweight position in Nigeria, dissipated somewhat
into month end as once again certain market participants aggressively added to
positions during the last 2 weeks of December. We have regained this relative
performance month to date in January.
Portfolio Activity
In December, the Company added its position in Morocco's Attijariwafa Bank.
The substantial reforms that the Moroccan government have enacted over the last
18 months have gone some way to addressing what was a substantial fiscal
deficit, peaking at 7.4% of GDP in 2012, and the fall in oil price will
substantially reduce the external deficit. Combined, we expect a significant
increase in domestic liquidity which should directly benefit Attijariwafa
Bank.
Outlook
Whilst the final quarter of 2014 provided a torrid environment for some
Frontier Markets, we believe that the fall in oil prices is an overall positive
for consumers in Frontier Markets, especially in those countries which have
historically had high inflation. We are seeing a number of countries from
Morocco to Pakistan use, or consider using, this opportunity to remove fuel
subsidies which will benefit their economies longer term. We believe that the
rebalancing of the Frontier Markets Index in 2014 which saw UAE and Qatar
promoted to the Emerging Markets Index has improved the composition of the
Index, aligning it more closely with investors interest in fast growing,
under-developed markets. We continue to believe that Frontier Markets offer
attractive opportunities for long term investors to own fast growing companies
in under penetrated markets on cheap valuations.
16 January 2015
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/brfi on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on BlackRock's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.