Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK GREATER EUROPE INVESTMENT TRUST plc
All information is at 31 July 2014 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three since launch
Month Months Year Years (20 Sep 04)
Net asset value* (undiluted) -5.2% -5.6% -1.2% 21.8% 181.8%
Net asset value* (diluted) -5.1% -4.5% -0.3% 24.5% 182.0%
Share price -6.1% -7.6% 1.2% 24.7% 170.2%
FTSE World Europe ex UK -3.7% -4.0% 4.1% 23.6% 130.6%
Sources: BlackRock and Datastream
At month end
Net asset value (capital only): 232.29p
Net asset value (including income): 235.50p
Net asset value (capital only)*: 232.29p
Net asset value (including income)*: 235.50p
Share price: 224.50p
Discount to NAV (including income): 4.7%
Discount to NAV (including income)*: 4.7%
Subscription share price: 15.50p
Net gearing: 1.4%
Net yield**: 2.7%
Total assets (including income): £259.6m
Ordinary shares in issue***: 108,815,767
Subscription shares: 20,660,139
Ongoing charges****: 0.9%
* Diluted for subscription shares and treasury shares.
** Based on a final dividend of 4.5p per share for the year ended 31 August
2013 (excluding special dividend) and an interim dividend of 1.5p per share for
the year ending 31 August 2014.
*** Excluding 5,429,676 shares held in treasury.
**** Calculated as a percentage of average net assets and using expenses,
excluding performance fees and interest costs, after relief of taxation for the
year ended 31 August 2013.
Sector Analysis Total Assets (%) Country Analysis Total Assets (%)
Financials 31.5 France 18.8
Industrials 19.1 Switzerland 17.6
Health Care 10.7 Germany 11.1
Consumer Services 9.1 Italy 10.6
Consumer Goods 8.8 Netherlands 8.2
Basic Materials 7.8 Sweden 7.3
Technology 5.5 Denmark 6.0
Oil & Gas 4.5 Russia 5.1
Utilities 3.1 Ireland 3.0
Net current liabilities (0.1) Turkey 2.8
----- Portugal 2.6
100.0 Belgium 2.3
===== Spain 1.9
Finland 1.7
Hungary 1.1
Net current liabilities (0.1)
-----
100.0
=====
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company
Bayer Germany
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain France
Continental Germany
Eni Italy
GDF Suez France
Novo Nordisk Denmark
Roche Switzerland
Schneider Electric France
Unicredit Italy
Zurich Insurance Switzerland
Commenting on the markets, Vincent Devlin, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
During the month, the Company's NAV returned -5.2% and the share price returned
-6.1%. For reference, the FTSE World Europe ex UK Index returned -3.7% during
the same period.
European markets fell during July, with small caps continuing to underperform
large caps (Stoxx 200 Small Cap Index was down -2.8%). Volatility also
prevailed as the market twice fell -3% intra-month. A number of factors
contributed to this, including more severe sanctions being placed on Russia, a
rise in US 10 year yields and profit warnings in selected cyclical business in
Europe during the second quarter earnings season. That said, forward earnings
expectations for European equities were broadly flat during the month. The Euro
weakened in July, falling 2.3% against the dollar which is generally positive
for European corporate earnings on the whole. The market also exhibited a high
degree of dispersion at a sector level, with oil & gas falling more than 5% in
the month and technology rising more than 2% (both Euro terms).
Stock selection drove the underperformance during July, while sector allocation
contributed to returns. A lower weight to the energy sector contributed to
relative returns as the sector fell during July after being the strongest
performing sector in June. A lower weight in consumer goods also contributed to
returns while a higher weight in industrials detracted.
At the stock level a position in Sberbank of Russia was the Company's largest
stock detractor after the share price fell sharply during the month. The
continued conflict between Russia and the Ukraine has led to the bank facing
sanctions and thus hindering the investment case of the bank. A position in
Portuguese retailer Jeronimo Martins also fell during July after announcing
weak Q2 results. The like-for-like results in their key Polish discount retail
business, Biedronka, were weaker than expected. They have now started to see
deflationary pressures in Poland as well as falling margins. This has led to
the stock facing earnings downgrades on their full year guidance. Similarly the
share price of French construction and material company Saint-Gobain reacted
poorly on the back of weak European macroeconomic and construction data
surveys. However, the investment case remains intact with Saint-Gobain's
valuation already factoring in the weak activity in Q2, and reporting recently
an increase in its first half earnings on rebounding demand in Europe and in
emerging markets.
On a more positive note, a position in Portuguese postal service CTT Correios
de Portugal performed well during July as the share price rose after several
broker upgrades and then releasing solid Q2 results in which they saw easing
mail volume pressure and strong cost savings come through. A position in ASML
performed well; their Q2 results were ahead on EBIT and in line with consensus
on the top line but investors were initially tentative due to a cautious
guidance from the management team. However, at the end of the month the stock
rallied as the company confirmed that plans for its next-generation wafer
technology, Extreme Ultra Violet, were ahead of their previous guidance.
At the end of the month, the Company was positioned with higher weightings in
Industrials, Financials, Consumer Services, Technology & Health Care and with
lower weightings in Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas, Basic Materials, Telecoms &
Utilities.
Outlook
Recent months have been challenging for portfolio performance and indeed active
managers more broadly. We have witnessed a vicious rotation but it is all too
easy to chase the market and to be whipsawed on the way. Market volatility
remains benign and valuations of European equities are broadly supportive
relative to other asset classes and to US equities. Earnings momentum is the
laggard relative to the US but we believe that current European earnings
expectations of 8% growth in 2014 should be achievable from here: the weakening
Euro is supportive of this.
Uncertainties are building up for investors, both in terms of geopolitical risk
increasing in Ukraine and the Middle East, and in terms of some monetary
policies starting to move towards tightening as far as the US and UK are
concerned. The shift in interest rate regime by the Federal Reserve is unlikely
to be smooth for financial markets and we are likely to see increased
volatility. However, history has shown that equity markets tend to perform well
in the early stages of a tightening interest rate cycle. In Europe, the dovish
stance by the European Central Bank ("ECB") will in itself be an important
point to watch. We believe that the ECB actions will be positive for the
Eurozone economy in the coming months and has notable benefits for a banking
sector that is already in a strong capital position relative to five years ago.
Nonetheless, it will take time for the benefits of cheaper lending to filter
through to the real economy in the form of lending to SMEs and households but
there is plenty of pent up demand which should support the European economic
recovery and be positive for the market as a whole.
13 August 2014
ENDS
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any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.