Portfolio Update
BLACKROCK WORLD MINING TRUST plc
All information is at 30 April 2009 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three Five
Month Months Year Years Years
Net asset value* (undiluted) 10.5% 34.4% -49.5% -12.3% 130.8%
Net asset value* (diluted) 10.5% 34.4% -48.7% -10.6% 122.9%
Share price* 13.9% 45.5% -46.5% -9.7% 131.2%
HSBC Global Mining Index 8.4% 25.4% -37.6% 2.7% 148.1%
Sources: BlackRock, HSBC Global Mining Index, Datastream
*Net asset value and share price performance includes the warrant reinvestment,
assuming the 2004 and 2006 bonus warrant entitlement per share was sold and the
proceeds reinvested on the first day of trading.
At month end
Net asset value Including Income Capital Only
Undiluted/Diluted: 419.50p# 417.38p
#Includes net revenue of 2.12p
Share price: 374.75p
Discount to NAV**: 10.21%
Total assets***: £745.71m
Net yield: 0.80%
Gearing: Nil
Ordinary shares in issue: 177,762,242
Ordinary shares held in treasury: 15,249,600
** Discount to NAV based on capital only.
*** Includes current year revenue.
Sector % Total Country Analysis % Total
Assets Assets
Diversified 40.5 Latin America 31.2
Base Metals 15.7 Global 17.6
Gold 14.0 South Africa 11.8
Platinum 9.0 Australasia 9.3
Silver/Diamonds 7.2 USA 6.5
Industrial Minerals 6.8 Canada 6.2
Other 3.5 Other Africa 5.7
Net current assets 3.3 Indonesia 3.9
India 2.6
Europe 0.8
Emerging Asia 0.6
Laos 0.5
Net current assets 3.3
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100.0 100.0
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Ten Largest Equity Investments (in alphabetical order)
Company
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Fresnillo
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Rio Tinto
Vale
Commenting on the markets, Evy Hambro^, representing the Investment Manager
noted:
Market review
Bullish data from leading commodity consumers, the United States, China and
India, coupled with some weakness in the US Dollar, pushed commodities higher
during the month. Investor sentiment and risk appetite also picked up as data
showed some signs of economic stability and a potential recovery. Investors
were cheered to note that US construction spending rose by 0.3% in March and
pending US existing home sales also climbed. In addition, a Chinese
manufacturing index rose to a nine month high of 50.1 in April (from 44.8 in
March) and Indian factory activity expanded for the first time in five months.
These data points would suggest that these economies may have bottomed and the
Chinese stimulus package in particular does seem to be having an effect with
respect to commodity demand, as restocking took place over the first quarter.
It was also encouraging to see Goldman Sachs announce that they are upgrading
their estimate of Chinese GDP to around 8.3% in 2009 and 10.9% in 2010 - a
fairly bullish sign for the mining sector. Base metal prices are up from their
lows, thermal and coking coal prices have settled and though they are down from
last year they generally beat the market's pessimistic expectations. Iron ore
prices still have not settled but the consensus is that they will be down
around 40% (back to 2007 levels), which is being factored into company
valuations.
As such, the signs we were looking for with respect to the Chinese leading the
way through an earlier restocking event have occurred, which encourages us to
think our forecast for demand to pick up globally by the end of the year still
looks achievable. As of yet, however, we have not seen a significant pick up in
commodity demand out of the US and Europe and this is where we will be watching
closely over the next two/three quarters.
On the supply side, significant supply side cuts across the commodity spectrum
have helped to reduce inventory build and, following significant growth in
metal/commodity inventories in the 4th quarter of 2008 and early in the 1st
quarter of 2009, these now are flattening out and falling in some cases. These
supply cuts may have a material affect in the future for metals, such as
copper, which are struggling to maintain current levels of production due to a
variety of factors, including declining grades. This is evidenced by Chile,
which mines about a third of the world's copper. The country produced 429,620
tonnes of the metal in March, down 5.9% from the same month last year,
according to the government. (Chile's copper output fell 9.8% in February from
the same month in 2008, according to data released last month.)
It is also worth noting that the financial position of the mining sector has
also improved with significant capex cuts announced and a number of equity and
bond issuances by the more distressed mining companies having been carried out.
Strategy/Outlook
In recent weeks we have seen a strong rally in the mining sector (and
valuations still look incredibly attractive) but we remain cautious given the
possibility of some weakness in the northern hemisphere summer. We view this as
a buying opportunity going into what we expect to be a strong fourth quarter
but, for the moment, we are building our positions in the stronger diversified
miners over and above the more leveraged pure plays.
The longer term picture remains the same. Our expectation is that China will
have most influence over the demand picture for commodities and, given its
commodity-intensive stimulus package and the broader industrialisation story,
we expect China to lead the way. With respect to supply, the premature closure
of ageing mines we have seen over the last six months, combined with the
cutting of expenditure on future growth, means that when demand does begin to
grow, supply will be unable to respond fast enough and thus the seeds of the
next commodities cycle have been sown.
^ Graham Birch is on sabbatical until next year.
Latest information is available by typing www.blackrock.co.uk/its on the
internet, "BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal).
14 May 2009