Interim Management Statement
STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC
This interim management statement, issued in accordance with the UK Listing
Authority's disclosure and transparency rules, relates to the period from 1
January to 31 March 2012.
Investment highlights
* Net assets per share increase by 11.75%, underperforming the FTSE Smaller
Companies ex Investment Trusts index by 6.43%.
* Portfolio companies continue to deliver strong operating performances.
* Continued rotation from mature fairly valued investments into new
attractively priced opportunities.
Financial highlights
* Net assets of 104.52p per share.
* Discount narrows to 18.44%
* Portfolio valuation remains highly attractive; post capex cash flow yield
over 15%
Investment Managers Review
The first quarter of 2012 saw a continuation of the recovery in global equity
markets that began in November 2011. The broad UK market posted a healthy
increase of 6.2%; Mid cap stocks and smaller companies saw even larger gains of
+14.8% and +18.2% respectively. The rally in smaller companies was narrow, with
the median stock significantly underperforming the index. Some very large
increases in the market capitalisations of highly indebted, low margin, low
return companies, accounted for a sizeable proportion of the increase in the
index.
This outperformance of companies outside of the FTSE100 index was not simply
attributable to increased risk appetite. Earnings growth estimates for the FTSE
100 fell sharply from +7.5% to +3.5% due mainly to downgrades of banks and
mining stocks. This was in stark contrast to the mid and small caps, whose
growth forecasts remained broadly unchanged at +13.5% and +8.9% respectively.
Market volatility as measured by the VIX index fell by more than 50% and ended
the period at a level in line with three year lows, leaving the market very
vulnerable to a negative turn in sentiment.
We are now three years into a bull market that has seen the FTSE All-Share
total return index rise by 62% to an all-time high and the FTSE Smaller
Companies (ex-investment trusts) total return index rally by 79%. When public
sentiment catches up with reality, and starts to recognise that UK equities
have massively outperformed most "low risk" asset classes for some time, there
may be potential for a significant further re-rating of the asset class.
Portfolio Review
The Company's NAV rose by 11.7% in the period, lagging the rise in the smaller
companies market. The total NAV return for the last 12 months was 7.5%, a
cumulative outperformance of 7.6% compared to a fall of 0.1% in the FTSE
Smaller Companies Index.
The majority of portfolio news flow remained extremely positive, with final
results and trading statements typically in line or ahead of expectations. In
aggregate, earnings and dividend momentum in the portfolio remained strong and
companies continued to degear in line or ahead of expectations.
The key positive contributors to performance in the period Lavendon, SRFII,
E2V, 4imprint and Lupus, which rose 40%, 12%, 16%, 28% and 14% respectively.
Lavendon released final results ahead of expectations and indicated that its
profitable Middle Eastern business was recovering. E2V signed a MOU with Rio
Tinto to develop a new generation industrial processing system to improve
recovery of copper from slag ore. 4imprint announced the disposal of Brand
Addition, and released positive final results, demonstrating the strong
performance of its US business. Lupus released final results ahead of
expectations and announced the disposal of Gall Thompson for £70m - ahead of
expectations.
The key negative contributors over the period were Mecom, Kewill and Thorntons
which fell by 13%, 1%, and 42% respectively. Mecom announced that the disposal
of the Norwegian business would be delayed due to competition clearance taking
longer than anticipated. Kewill's share price drifted on no news flow regarding
contract wins. Thorntons continued to perform poorly. The stub position was
fully exited.
Other company news flow was again in line or positive. Journey Group released
final results ahead of expectations. There is significant net cash on the
balance sheet and the company is in better shape than for many years. RPC
released an in line trading statement. Results from CVS, Wilmington and Statpro
were all in line. The exception was an earnings downgrade from Gooch & Housego.
However, the shares rebounded rapidly, there was very little volume traded and
the holding remains at a significantly higher level than where we purchased the
stake in late 2011.
Portfolio turnover increased significantly over the quarter to 20% on an
annualised basis, as we took profits following some favourable price movements
in larger holdings. Two new investments were made during the quarter - Optos
and Goals Soccer Centres.
The underlying cash flow of the portfolio remained strong, and the portfolio
valuation undemanding, with a post capex cash flow yield of 15.1% at the period
end. The average level of gearing of underlying portfolio companies continued
to fall and is currently 0.6x net debt/EBITDA. With a high dividend cover of
3.3x, there is clearly scope for increased dividends, share buybacks or
earnings enhancing M&A to drive shareholder value over and above existing
returns.
Outlook
2011 was a year in which negative macro news flow dominated and positive
corporate news flow went largely un-noticed. As a result, another year of
strong earnings growth has meant that on traditional metrics such as price to
earnings, the market has rarely looked cheaper. On a cash flow basis, the UK
market as measured by EV/EBITDA is cheaper than even the nadir of 2009 due to
strong degearing.
We believe that the UK market is three years into a decade, or more, of double
digit annualised real equity returns. After more than a decade of de-rating for
equities, we believe a firming global growth outlook and a high starting
dividend yield are all supportive of this view. Q1 2012 has only served to
strengthen this. Dividend activity, we have previously argued, is a good
indication of management's confidence in future earnings. During the quarter,
both Lavendon and Lupus increased their dividends by 75%.
We continue to view the portfolio as a collection of highly attractive assets,
typically enjoying market leadership, high levels of overseas earnings, with
good growth prospects, trading on undemanding earnings and cash flow multiples.
Summary
(as at 31 March 2012)
Net assets £73.29m
NAV per share 104.52p
Net cash % 4.09
Top 10 Investments
Company name (as at 31 March 2012) % of
invested
portfolio
Strategic Recovery Fund II 16.37
Lupus Capital 11.54
E2V Technologies 8.87
Lavendon Group 8.86
4imprint Group 8.16
KCOM Group 7.64
Mecom Group 7.28
Allocate Software 5.93
RPC Group 5.93
CVS Group 3.82
Sector analysis % of portfolio
Telecoms 7.33
Technology 21.14
Support services 19.63
Retail 3.66
Media 8.91
Manufacturing 17.08
Leisure 0.07
Investment companies 18.09
Net cash 4.09
Size analysis % of portfolio
(market cap)
<£100 million 28.18
£100 - £300 million 36.62
£300 - £500 million 7.33
Greater than £500 23.78
million
Net cash 4.09
The Directors are not aware of any significant events or transactions which
have occurred between 31 March 2012 and the date of publication of this
statement which have had a material impact on the financial position of the
Company.
For further information please contact:
Adam Steiner
SVG Investment Managers Limited
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7010 8927 or email adam.steiner@svgcapital.com
Company website: www.strategicequitycapital.com
Neither the contents of the Company's website nor the contents of any website
accessible from hyperlinks on the Company's website (or any other website) is
incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.