Interim Management Statement
STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC
This interim management statement, issued in accordance with the UK Listing
Authority's disclosure and transparency rules, relates to the period from 1
January to 31 March 2013.
Investment highlights
* Net assets per share increased by 10.7%, in line with the 11.0% rise in the
FTSE Smaller Companies ex Investment Trusts index.
* Performance was driven by strong share price performance by longstanding
holdings with high exposure to North America.
* Portfolio valuation remains attractive with a high operating cash flow
yield and strong predicted earnings growth. Portfolio companies typically
have half of the financial gearing and almost twice the operating margin of
small cap peers.
Financial highlights
* Company net asset value increased to 123.9p per share.
* £3.8m of cash distributions received from Strategic Recovery Fund II,
brings unlisted investments to under 10% of the Net Asset Value.
* Cash weighting of 11.4% in anticipation of tender offer and attractively
priced secondary fundraisings coming to market.
Investment Managers Review
Equities enjoyed a strong first quarter. The broad UK market rose by 10.3%,
with mid and small size companies rising by 13.5% and 11.0% respectively. The
upward march of UK equities paused for breath in early March and succumbed to
marginal profit taking. The Cyprus bailout acted as a timely reminder of
excessive public sector indebtedness in some countries, as well as the
unstructured approach of the Eurozone in handling a mini-crisis. Sequestration
began in the USA on 1st March, and deficit reduction talks are on-going.
However, consumer expenditure and the US housing market continue to recover
modestly. UK economic activity in aggregate remains flat. However, stripping
out the impact of declining North Sea oil revenues, the UK economy is growing
modestly. Sterling fell significantly against the US dollar, as the UK
Government signalled further loose monetary policy was likely to continue for
the foreseeable future.
The forward earnings growth estimates for the main UK indices have converged
during the past six months. Small cap earnings growth has fallen a little to
+6.4%, compared with +7.5% and +9.2% for the FTSE100 and FTSE250 respectively.
The rating on equities has risen again, and in aggregate now appears closer to
fair value than for some time, albeit still below long term averages. There are
significant rating differentials within this market, with perceived safe haven
growth stocks, and momentum stocks trading at large premia to the market.
Profit warnings were flat in Q1, and concentrated in support services, software
& computer services, and industrial engineering sectors. Many of these warnings
resulted in modest share price falls of up to 15%. We believe that this limited
reaction to bad news is due to a combination of 1) equity markets anticipating
a sustained broad economic recovery from 2014 onwards, and looking through
short term trading difficulties 2) equity prices being supported by inflows
into equity funds. M&A was muted in Q1. However, the increased rating of the
market, and equity inflows, kick-started the IPO market, leading to a steady
flow of initial public offerings of proven companies with cash generative
business models on sensible valuations (Crest Nicholson; Hellermann Tyton;
esure).
Portfolio Review
The Company's NAV rose by 10.7% over the period, compared to the 11.0% rise in
the FTSE Small Cap Index ex Investment Trusts and the operating performances of
the majority of portfolio companies continued to improve.
The key positive contributors to performance in the period were Tyman,
Lavendon, 4imprint, KCOM and Journey. Tyman's final results statement included
a highly positive outlook statement on its core North American markets, given
the lead indicators of housing permits and starts. Lavendon continued to
re-rate on the back of in-line results. 4imprint re-rated significantly
following better than anticipated results, and interest from multiple new
institutional buyers. KCOM re-rated following its underperformance in Q4 2012.
Journey released positive results.
The key negative contributor over the period was Allocate, which fell 14%.
Whilst the interim results were in-line, there is some concern around the
achievability of the full year results. With a wave of contract renewals due
from May onwards, we believe that the shares are priced very modestly for the
improving quality of earnings. It trades at a significant discount to its
likely value to trade acquirers.
Other weakness was seen in electronics holdings, which was largely anticipated.
Gooch & Housego was weak despite in-line news. E2V ended the period marginally
down, despite a weak trading update. The market has responded positively to the
appointment of the new Chairman. Andor was also weak on the back of soft end
markets. We believe that these niche electronics companies are out of favour
due to a lack of short term trading momentum, but are attractively priced
compared with their underlying cash flows, their medium to long term potential
and precedent M&A in their sectors. They all have very strong balance sheets
and no poison pills to frustrate any potential M&A activity.
Most other holdings released trading statements or results in-line with
expectations. The exception was RPC, which released a disappointing trading
statement on the last day of the quarter. Goals Soccer announced that it was
recruiting a new Chairman.
Portfolio turnover increased marginally over the quarter to an annualised rate
of 31%. No new investments were made. The positions in Andor and Gooch &
Housego were increased on weakness. E2V was reduced in anticipation of a weak
trading update, although we believe that this company remains one of the most
undervalued in the portfolio.
Unlisted investments fell from 14.3% to 8.9% of the portfolio, following £3.8m
cash distributions from Strategic Recovery Fund II. Strong performers 4imprint
and Tyman were top sliced. Mecom was reduced following the results meeting with
management in March. Net cash increased from 4.9% of opening NAV to 11.4% of
closing NAV, partially in anticipation of the forthcoming tender offer.
The aggregate valuation of the portfolio remains attractive at 12.6% SVG cash
flow yield, given the prospects for growth. The average level of gearing of
underlying portfolio companies remains low at 0.5x net debt/EBITDA. We continue
to believe that these strong balance sheets offer portfolio companies multiple
options to enhance value, including M&A, special returns of capital, or
dividend increases.
On a weighted average basis, 56% of the underlying sales of portfolio companies
are generated outside of the UK, demonstrating the international nature of the
companies we invest in. North America and Asia account for 28% of portfolio
sales, having risen from 23% as at the end of 2011. The exposure to Europe has
fallen from 36% to 22% of sales, in line with our views on the poor outlook for
growth in the Eurozone.
Where there is UK exposure, we seek out companies which are clear market
leaders, able to defend or increase prices, and are exposed to markets which
are not dependent on discretionary consumer spending.
The weighted average operating margin of the portfolio is currently 13.8%, in
line with our objective of investing in value-adding companies. It is also a
notable premium margin to the average FTSE Small Cap company, which achieves 8%
operating margin.
Outlook
We believe that the positive backdrop for equities continues into 2013. However
the pace of the markets may temper and a period of consolidation is likely. UK
equities are becoming more sensibly rated, but, in our opinion, remain below
fair value. Corporate balance sheets are lowly geared. Conversations with
investors suggest there is a desire to increase equity allocations, not
surprising given the negative real returns on cash and the likely over
valuation of many fixed income instruments. For now, we believe that equity
inflows have been funded largely from cash deposits. A wholesale asset
allocation switch from fixed income to equities could lead to markets
continuing to re-rate. Given the net de-equitisation of UK equities over the
last decade, this could lead to prices being pushed to, and beyond fair value.
Our contacts in the corporate finance and broking world report that their
clients' interest in M&A picked up significantly from February onwards. With a
typical three month lead time, we anticipate reported M&A activity to increase
from the end of April onwards. Two portfolio companies have approached us
recently exploring options for equity fundraisings to acquire complementary
businesses. These are the first quality M&A equity fundraisings we have seen
since the end of 2010.
The strong balance sheet of the Company allows us to take advantage of these
fundraisings, without being a forced seller, as well as capitalise on any stock
specific or market pull backs as and when they occur.
We remain confident in the prospects for the portfolio to deliver growth.
Compared to the small cap index, it offers superior forecast earnings per share
growth, with much less balance sheet risk, with a marginal premium rating. We
do not believe that portfolio companies are margin maximising, nor are they
operating at peak sales levels. Although the Company's NAV may lag any future
"risk-on" rallies, we believe it will deliver steady growth, with scope for
upside from M&A activity, potential buybacks and special dividends among
portfolio companies.
Summary
(as at 31 March 2013)
Net assets £80.1m
NAV per share 123.9p
Net cash % 11.4%
Top 10 Investments
Company name (as at 31 March 2013) % of
invested
portfolio
Tyman (previously Lupus Capital) 12.1
4imprint Group 8.1
Lavendon Group 8.0
E2V Technologies 7.9
KCOM Group 7.4
Strategic Recovery Fund II 6.6
CVS Group 5.4
Allocate Software 4.9
Goals Soccer Centres 4.7
Gooch and Housego 4.2
Sector analysis % of portfolio
Technology 21.2
Support services 20.1
Manufacturing 16.3
Investment companies 8.9
Telecoms 7.5
Retail 5.4
Leisure 4.7
Media 4.5
Net cash 11.4
Size analysis % of portfolio
(market cap)
Less than £100 million 17.0
£100 - £300 million 50.3
£300 - £500 million 14.0
Greater than £500 7.3
million
Net cash 11.4
The Directors are not aware of any significant events or transactions which
have occurred between 31 March 2013 and the date of publication of this
statement which have had a material impact on the financial position of the
Company.
For further information please contact:
Adam Steiner/Stuart Widdowson
SVG Investment Managers Limited
Telephone: +44 (0)20 7010 8900
Company website: www.strategicequitycapital.com
Neither the contents of the Company's website nor the contents of any website
accessible from hyperlinks on the Company's website (or any other website) is
incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.