Interim Management Statement
STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC ("THE COMPANY")
This interim management statement, issued in accordance with the UK Listing
Authority's disclosure and transparency rules, relates to the period from
1 July 2013 to 30 September 2013.
Investment highlights
* Net assets per share increased by 15.2%, slightly behind the 16.1% rise in
the FTSE Smaller Companies ex Investment Trusts index.
* Performance was driven by a strong results season. All portfolio holdings
produced a positive return over the period.
* Portfolio valuation remains attractive with a high operating cash flow
yield and improving consensus earnings, which now forecast double digit
growth for the year. In aggregate portfolio companies are virtually
ungeared, offering multiple options to drive increased returns in the
future.
* Portfolio remains focused on real smaller companies: 89% of the portfolio
is invested in FTSE Small Cap and FTSE AIM companies.
Financial highlights
* Company net asset value increased to £90.3m or 145.5p per share.
* Unlisted investments down to 2.1% of the net asset value.
* Cash weighting has risen to 13.3% in anticipation of attractive
fundraisings coming to market.
Investment Manager's Report
Portfolio Review
Performance Review
The Company's NAV rose by 15.2% over the period, compared to a 16.1% rise in
the FTSE Small Cap ex Investment Companies Index. The aggregate portfolio
valuation increased to a 11.2% SVG cash flow yield, although this has coincided
with a c.20% increase in the consensus forecast forward earnings growth of the
portfolio. This now stands at 12.7%. The average level of gearing of underlying
portfolio companies fell again to 0.3x net debt/EBITDA, and the median
portfolio company has no gearing. There is increasing evidence of portfolio
companies looking to use these balance sheets to enhance value through M&A.
Portfolio Movements
Portfolio turnover increased over the quarter to an annualised rate of 44%,
driven by taking profits from successful investments whose valuations had
become unattractively high. No new investments were made.
Significant further investments were made in Gooch & Housego and Wilmington.
The position in Andor was added to on price weakness and following a positive
due diligence visit to the Belfast factory in August. The position in
Northbridge was increased as part of an equity fundraising to support an
acquisition.
Unlisted funds fell from 3.7% to 2.1% of the NAV following the final
distribution from SRFII. KCOM's position was sold down significantly as it
reached our target price. Net cash increased significantly from £7.0m (8.9%
of opening NAV) to £12.0m (13.3% of closing NAV), in anticipation of a full
pipeline and the upcoming tender offer and dividend payment.
Key Company News
Portfolio news flow was overwhelmingly positive over the quarter. The key
positive contributors to performance in the period were E2V, Allocate, CVS,
Lavendon and Wilmington. E2V released an in line trading statement, and
announced that its controversial longstanding CEO was leaving. The shares have
rallied significantly since then.
As anticipated, Allocate continued the re-rating witnessed in Q2, supported by
strong final results. CVS released an in-line trading statement and final
results. The company appears to have been rehabilitated in the eyes of the
investment community. Lavendon released in line results and indicated that the
second half of 2013 would see further growth in its profitable Middle East
business unit. Wilmington rallied significantly, following a well received
acquisition and as the market spotted the mispricing of the stock.
There were no negative contributors to performance over the period. Tyman ended
the period unchanged, although we believe the share price was oversold at the
end of September. We continue to see substantial medium to long term upside
from its exposure to the recovering US residential construction market. Gooch
& Housego also delivered lower than average returns, but operationally has
continued to perform in line with our expectations.
All other holdings released trading statements or results in-line with
expectations. Our first meeting with the Goals Soccer management post the
appointment of the new Chairman was very positive. We are likely to both
increase our target price and likely holding period.
Outlook
We believe that the outlook for equities continues to remain positive for the
medium to long term. However, we re-iterate our recent comments that the recent
pace of re-rating and rising prices appears unsustainable over the medium to
long term.
The positive benefit of the recent re-rating is that equity markets are
functioning again. This is demonstrated by the numerous IPOs of smaller
companies announced over the summer and the large pipeline for the autumn and
early 2014. This is extremely positive for the Company in the long run as the
addressable universe for potential investments will begin to reverse its
thirteen years of contraction. Since 2000, the number of constituents in the
FTSE Small Cap Index has fallen by two thirds, but is likely to rise for the
first time in many years in the last quarter of 2013.
With earnings growth accelerating among smaller companies, the conventional
pe/growth rating suggests that smaller companies remain relatively good value when
compared with the FTSE100 and FTSE250. A further 10-15% absolute re-rating of
smaller companies seems likely before they start to look overpriced, although
we are not assuming that re-rating will continue at the same level as the past
few months. Equally the relative re-rating of smaller companies compared with
the FTSE100 and FTSE250 seems likely to continue. This may be tempered by IPOs
which could absorb spare cash in portfolios as well as potentially trigger
profit taking.
Excluding re-rating, the prospects for the other three key drivers of
shareholder value look good. Estimated forward earnings growth from both the
portfolio and the smaller companies index have increased by more than 15% over
the summer. The portfolio continues to generate strong cashflow, as
demonstrated by the decreasing average net debt. The final driver of bid
activity for listed companies continues to remain lower than we would
anticipate given market valuations and the strength of corporate balance
sheets. We believe that this last driver should begin to kick in towards the
back end of 2013 and build through 2014 as the "animal spirits" continue to
rise. Therefore, even assuming no change in rating for equities, we continue to
see good underlying NAV growth for the portfolio through a mixture of earnings
growth, strong cash generation and M&A.
Meanwhile, the strong balance sheet of the Company and the underlying portfolio
companies should enable the Company's NAV to be more resilient when the next
market sell off happens, as well as provide us with the ability to benefit from
mis-priced stocks, or more positively, attractive equity fundraisings as they
drip into the market. We believe that the prospects for continued medium and
long term NAV progress remain good.
Summary
(as at 30 September 2013)
Net assets £90.3m
NAV per share 145.5p
Net cash % 13.3%
Top 10 Investments
Company name (as at 30 September 2013) % of NAV
E2V Technologies 12.5
Tyman (previously Lupus Capital) 9.6
4imprint Group 8.6
Wilmington Group 7.2
Allocate Software 6.5
CVS Group 6.3
Gooch and Housego 6.2
Goals Soccer Centres 5.1
RPC Group 4.6
Lavendon Group 4.2
Sector analysis % of NAV
Technology 31.1
Support services 18.0
Manufacturing 14.3
Net cash 13.3
Media 7.2
Retail 6.3
Leisure 5.1
Telecoms 2.6
Unlisted 2.1
Size analysis % of NAV
(market cap)
Less than £100 million 16.8
£100 - £300 million 33.9
£300 - £500 million 29.3
Greater than £500 million 6.7
Net cash 13.3
The Directors are not aware of any significant events or transactions which
have occurred between 30 September 2013 and the date of publication of this
statement which have had a material impact on the financial position of the
Company. The Company published a circular to shareholders on 3 October 2013
which set out the terms and conditions of a tender offer for up to 4 per cent
of the Company's issued share capital.
For further information please contact:
Adam Steiner/Stuart Widdowson
SVG Investment Managers Limited
Telephone: +44 (0)20 3691 6100
Company website: www.strategicequitycapital.com
Neither the contents of the Company's website nor the contents of any website
accessible from hyperlinks on the Company's website (or any other website) is
incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.