Interim Results
CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT
Results
In the first half of 2004, equity markets worldwide were less volatile than in
recent years. In terms of total returns, the FTSE All Share Index increased by
just 2.8%, whereas Temple Bar's total assets, after management and other
expenses, including accrued income but before deducting interest payments, rose
by 7.1%. Net assets increased by 6.2%. Post-tax earnings for the period were
£8.95m compared with £8.83m, a rise of 1.3%. The board has declared an interim
dividend of 8.64p, an increase of 2.5% over 2003, payable on 30 September 2004
to shareholders on the register at 17 September 2004.
Investment Background
At the start of the year, subdued inflation in major economies raised hopes
that significant interest rate rises would be delayed until economic growth was
strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs. However, a reassessment was
soon prompted by oil and commodity prices at higher levels than expected and,
in the US, by a reduction in surplus productive capacity. In the UK, the
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed its concern over the effects that
house price inflation could ultimately have upon the wider economy.
Consequently, during the six months under review, it became a matter of when,
and by how much, interest rates would need to rise. After some months of
deliberation by the MPC, UK base rate increased to 4.5%: +0.25% in May and
+0.25% in June. The Federal Reserve followed with the first increase in US
rates since Autumn 2001: from 1% to 1.25%.
The tension between improving economic news and higher interest rates led to a
wide range of differential performance within the FTSE All Share Index. The
strength of Reuters, Dixons, EMI and BAT were all particularly positive for the
Temple Bar portfolio, as was the absence from the portfolio of Vodafone, one of
the largest stocks in the market. Generally, Temple Bar's performance has
benefited from positions in out of favour companies, where operational progress
is reliant more on self-help than general economic strength.
Outlook
Although the Temple Bar portfolio is predominantly invested in UK equities,
all asset markets increasingly take their lead from what is happening in the
US. It is vital, therefore, to be aware of the changing economic outlook in
the world's largest economy.
At the start of this new cycle there is good reason to be cautious about the
short-term outlook for US equity and bond markets. First, the preponderance of
'carry trades' in the bond market typically involves money borrowed at low
rates of interest for a short maturity, and re-investment of the proceeds in
longer-dated bonds. With interest rates declining for most of the last decade,
these trades have proved very profitable. However, as short-term rates
increase, and the trade becomes less attractive, a large amount of forcedbond
sales could push yields, and the costs of borrowing, higher, suppressing
economic growth. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may seek to move
gradually when increasing rates. However, if markets feel these moves are
being made too slowly, and inflation is likely to accelerate, bond yields could
rise. It is not surprising that the Fed is currently talking of gradual
interest rate moves, while keeping open the option of moving faster if
necessary.
Second, although the US economy recovered strongly in the last four months of
2003, employment indicators were much less favourable. This unusual pattern
could be attributable to a variety of factors including the growth in
international outsourcing, or the replacement of labour with capital, or even
the miscalculation of data. Whatever the reason, it adds another layer of
economic complexity, especially as the strength of consumer spending has been
so important for the US economy in recent years. Clearly, the Federal Reserve
would be unsettled if the labour market deteriorated in the short-term.
Against this, the Fed would not want to be seen to be reacting to events by
letting the market dictate the timing of interest rate increases.
It is possible that fears of the unwinding of the carry trade are exaggerated
and that further increases in employment numbers and incomes will resolve the
personal debt issue. But all eventualities must be considered when building a
portfolio.
Fortunately, these US constraints are generally not paralleled in the UK, where
the economy and financial markets appear to be less at risk. The strength of
the UK economy has encouraged full employment, but inflation remains fairly
subdued and recent interest rate increases may control house price inflation
without causing an abrupt reversal.
In recognition of our overall view that the downside risks are greater than the
upside rewards, the Temple Bar portfolio continues to be most exposed to
companies relatively less sensitive to the economic cycle and increases in
finance costs, particularly, for example, in the tobacco and utility sectors.
John Reeve
20 July 2004
Twenty largest holdings
at 30 June 2004
Company Valuation % of
£'000 portfolio
GlaxoSmithKline 26,755 6.46
BP 21,094 5.09
Shell Transport & Trading 18,850 4.55
British American Tobacco 16,319 3.94
Abbey National 15,992 3.86
HSBC 13,515 3.26
BT 12,986 3.14
Lloyds TSB 12,053 2.91
Scottish Power 10,788 2.60
Severn Trent 10,445 2.52
Prudential 10,443 2.52
Dixons 10,280 2.48
Unilever 9,447 2.28
Investec UK Smaller Companies Fund 9,085 2.20
Gallaher 9,060 2.19
Alliance & Leicester 9,055 2.19
Rentokil 8,967 2.17
Diageo 8,776 2.12
EMI 7,140 1.72
Mitchells & Butlers 7,070 1.71
248,120 59.91
Statement of total return (incorporating the revenue account)
for the six months ended 30 June 2004
Six months Six months Year ended
ended ended 31 December 2003
30 June 30 June
2004 2003 (audited)
(unaudited) (unaudited)
Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total
Notes £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000
Gains on 4 - 18,625 18,625 - 17,204 17,204 - 56,544 56,544
investments
Income 5 10,362 - 10,362 10,217 - 10,217 19,301 - 19,301
Investment (328) (491) (819) (271) (406) (677) (584) (875) (1,459)
management
fee
Other (175) - (175) (200) - (200) (411) - (411)
expenses
Net return 9,859 18,134 27,993 9,746 16,798 26,544 18,306 55,669 73,975
before
finance
costs and
taxation
Interest (912) (1,368) (2,280) (912) (1,368) (2,280) (1,823) (2,736) (4,559)
payable
Return on
ordinary
activities 8,947 8,834
before
taxation 16,766 25,713 15,430 24,264 16,483 52,933 69,416
Taxation - - - - - - - - -
Return on
ordinary
activities 8,947 8,834
after
taxation 16,766 25,713 15,430 24,264 16,483 52,933 69,416
Ordinary (5,004) - (5,004) (4,882) - (4,882) (15,190) - (15,190)
dividends
Transfer to 3,943 16,766 20,709 3,952 15,430 19,382 1,293 52,933 54,226
reserves
Return per 15.45p 28.95p 44.40p 15.26p 26.65p 41.91p 28.46p 91.41p 119.87p
ordinary
share
Dividend 8.64p 8.43p 26.23p
per
ordinary
share
Consolidated cash flow statement
for the six months ended 30 June 2004
30 June 30 June 31 December
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
(unaudited) (unaudited) (audited)
Cash flow from operating activities 9,232 9,781 17,643
Return on investments and servicing of
finance
Interest paid (2,280) (2,279) (4,559)
Capital expenditure and financial
investment
Purchases of investments (69,923) (72,719) (163,564)
Sales of investments 81,840 85,557 151,726
11,917 12,838 (11,838)
Equity dividends paid (10,308) (10,058) (14,940)
Cash inflow/(outflow) before management of
liquid resources and financing 8,561 10,282 (13,694)
Management of liquid resources
Money market deposits (placed) /withdrawn (8,882) (10,072) 11,850
Financing
Gross proceeds from issue of shares - 49 49
(Decrease)/increase in cash (321) 259 (1,795)
Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement
in net debt
(Decrease)/increase in cash (321) 259 (1,795)
Cash used to increase/(decrease) liquid
resources 8,882 10,072 (11,850)
Change in net debt 8,561 10,331 (13,645)
Net debt at 1 January (61,722) (48,077) (48,077)
Net debt at 30 June (53,161) (37,746) (61,722)
Consolidated summary balance sheet
at 30 June 2004
30 June 2004 30 June 2003 31 December 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
(unaudited) (unaudited) (audited)
Investments 414,133 338,967 402,895
Net current assets/(liabilities) 1,917 21,530 (7,554)
Amounts falling due after one year (63,000) (63,000) (63,000)
Net assets 353,050 297,497 332,341
Attributable to ordinary
shareholders 353,050 297,497 332,341
Net asset value per ordinary share: 609.64p 513.71p 573.88p
Number of shares in issue 57,911,367 57,911,367 57,911,367
Notes to the interim results
1. Principal activity
The principal activity of the Company remains that of an investment trust. The
principal activity of its trading subsidiary is investment dealing.
2. Recharges to capital and accounting policies
40% (2003, 40%) of the management fee and interest payable on the debenture
stocks is charged to the revenue account and 60% (2003, 60%) is charged to
capital reserves, net of corporation tax relief and inclusive of any related
irrecoverable value added tax.
The unaudited interim financial statements have been prepared on a basis
consistent with the statutory financial statements for the year ended 31
December 2003.
3. Dividend
The interim dividend of 8.64p (2003: 8.43p) per ordinary share will absorb £
5,004,000 and will be paid on 30 September 2004 to shareholders registered on
17 September 2004.
4. Gains on investments
30 June 30 June 31 December
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
Net realised gains/(losses) 11,792 (7,898) 711
on sales
Net increase in unrealised
appreciation 6,833 25,102 55,833
Gains on investments 18,625 17,204 56,544
5. Income
30 June 30 June 31 December
2004 2003 2003
£'000 £'000 £'000
UK dividends net of tax credits 9,535 8,942 17,148
Income from UK fixed interest
securities 471 721 1,362
Scrip dividends 194 188 235
Bank interest 162 277 465
Underwriting commission - - 2
Dealing profit - 89 89
10,362 10,217 19,301
Comparative figures
The information for the year ended 31 December 2003 does not constitute
statutory accounts, but has been extracted from the latest published audited
accounts, which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The report of
the auditors on those accounts contained no qualification or statement under
section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985.
Publication
This interim report is being sent to shareholders and copies will be made
available to the public at the registered office of the Company.