Interim Results

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT Results In the first half of 2004, equity markets worldwide were less volatile than in recent years. In terms of total returns, the FTSE All Share Index increased by just 2.8%, whereas Temple Bar's total assets, after management and other expenses, including accrued income but before deducting interest payments, rose by 7.1%. Net assets increased by 6.2%. Post-tax earnings for the period were £8.95m compared with £8.83m, a rise of 1.3%. The board has declared an interim dividend of 8.64p, an increase of 2.5% over 2003, payable on 30 September 2004 to shareholders on the register at 17 September 2004. Investment Background At the start of the year, subdued inflation in major economies raised hopes that significant interest rate rises would be delayed until economic growth was strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs. However, a reassessment was soon prompted by oil and commodity prices at higher levels than expected and, in the US, by a reduction in surplus productive capacity. In the UK, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed its concern over the effects that house price inflation could ultimately have upon the wider economy. Consequently, during the six months under review, it became a matter of when, and by how much, interest rates would need to rise. After some months of deliberation by the MPC, UK base rate increased to 4.5%: +0.25% in May and +0.25% in June. The Federal Reserve followed with the first increase in US rates since Autumn 2001: from 1% to 1.25%. The tension between improving economic news and higher interest rates led to a wide range of differential performance within the FTSE All Share Index. The strength of Reuters, Dixons, EMI and BAT were all particularly positive for the Temple Bar portfolio, as was the absence from the portfolio of Vodafone, one of the largest stocks in the market. Generally, Temple Bar's performance has benefited from positions in out of favour companies, where operational progress is reliant more on self-help than general economic strength. Outlook Although the Temple Bar portfolio is predominantly invested in UK equities, all asset markets increasingly take their lead from what is happening in the US. It is vital, therefore, to be aware of the changing economic outlook in the world's largest economy. At the start of this new cycle there is good reason to be cautious about the short-term outlook for US equity and bond markets. First, the preponderance of 'carry trades' in the bond market typically involves money borrowed at low rates of interest for a short maturity, and re-investment of the proceeds in longer-dated bonds. With interest rates declining for most of the last decade, these trades have proved very profitable. However, as short-term rates increase, and the trade becomes less attractive, a large amount of forcedbond sales could push yields, and the costs of borrowing, higher, suppressing economic growth. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may seek to move gradually when increasing rates. However, if markets feel these moves are being made too slowly, and inflation is likely to accelerate, bond yields could rise. It is not surprising that the Fed is currently talking of gradual interest rate moves, while keeping open the option of moving faster if necessary. Second, although the US economy recovered strongly in the last four months of 2003, employment indicators were much less favourable. This unusual pattern could be attributable to a variety of factors including the growth in international outsourcing, or the replacement of labour with capital, or even the miscalculation of data. Whatever the reason, it adds another layer of economic complexity, especially as the strength of consumer spending has been so important for the US economy in recent years. Clearly, the Federal Reserve would be unsettled if the labour market deteriorated in the short-term. Against this, the Fed would not want to be seen to be reacting to events by letting the market dictate the timing of interest rate increases. It is possible that fears of the unwinding of the carry trade are exaggerated and that further increases in employment numbers and incomes will resolve the personal debt issue. But all eventualities must be considered when building a portfolio. Fortunately, these US constraints are generally not paralleled in the UK, where the economy and financial markets appear to be less at risk. The strength of the UK economy has encouraged full employment, but inflation remains fairly subdued and recent interest rate increases may control house price inflation without causing an abrupt reversal. In recognition of our overall view that the downside risks are greater than the upside rewards, the Temple Bar portfolio continues to be most exposed to companies relatively less sensitive to the economic cycle and increases in finance costs, particularly, for example, in the tobacco and utility sectors. John Reeve 20 July 2004 Twenty largest holdings at 30 June 2004 Company Valuation % of £'000 portfolio GlaxoSmithKline 26,755 6.46 BP 21,094 5.09 Shell Transport & Trading 18,850 4.55 British American Tobacco 16,319 3.94 Abbey National 15,992 3.86 HSBC 13,515 3.26 BT 12,986 3.14 Lloyds TSB 12,053 2.91 Scottish Power 10,788 2.60 Severn Trent 10,445 2.52 Prudential 10,443 2.52 Dixons 10,280 2.48 Unilever 9,447 2.28 Investec UK Smaller Companies Fund 9,085 2.20 Gallaher 9,060 2.19 Alliance & Leicester 9,055 2.19 Rentokil 8,967 2.17 Diageo 8,776 2.12 EMI 7,140 1.72 Mitchells & Butlers 7,070 1.71 248,120 59.91 Statement of total return (incorporating the revenue account) for the six months ended 30 June 2004 Six months Six months Year ended ended ended 31 December 2003 30 June 30 June 2004 2003 (audited) (unaudited) (unaudited) Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Notes £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Gains on 4 - 18,625 18,625 - 17,204 17,204 - 56,544 56,544 investments Income 5 10,362 - 10,362 10,217 - 10,217 19,301 - 19,301 Investment (328) (491) (819) (271) (406) (677) (584) (875) (1,459) management fee Other (175) - (175) (200) - (200) (411) - (411) expenses Net return 9,859 18,134 27,993 9,746 16,798 26,544 18,306 55,669 73,975 before finance costs and taxation Interest (912) (1,368) (2,280) (912) (1,368) (2,280) (1,823) (2,736) (4,559) payable Return on ordinary activities 8,947 8,834 before taxation 16,766 25,713 15,430 24,264 16,483 52,933 69,416 Taxation - - - - - - - - - Return on ordinary activities 8,947 8,834 after taxation 16,766 25,713 15,430 24,264 16,483 52,933 69,416 Ordinary (5,004) - (5,004) (4,882) - (4,882) (15,190) - (15,190) dividends Transfer to 3,943 16,766 20,709 3,952 15,430 19,382 1,293 52,933 54,226 reserves Return per 15.45p 28.95p 44.40p 15.26p 26.65p 41.91p 28.46p 91.41p 119.87p ordinary share Dividend 8.64p 8.43p 26.23p per ordinary share Consolidated cash flow statement for the six months ended 30 June 2004 30 June 30 June 31 December 2004 2003 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 (unaudited) (unaudited) (audited) Cash flow from operating activities 9,232 9,781 17,643 Return on investments and servicing of finance Interest paid (2,280) (2,279) (4,559) Capital expenditure and financial investment Purchases of investments (69,923) (72,719) (163,564) Sales of investments 81,840 85,557 151,726 11,917 12,838 (11,838) Equity dividends paid (10,308) (10,058) (14,940) Cash inflow/(outflow) before management of liquid resources and financing 8,561 10,282 (13,694) Management of liquid resources Money market deposits (placed) /withdrawn (8,882) (10,072) 11,850 Financing Gross proceeds from issue of shares - 49 49 (Decrease)/increase in cash (321) 259 (1,795) Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement in net debt (Decrease)/increase in cash (321) 259 (1,795) Cash used to increase/(decrease) liquid resources 8,882 10,072 (11,850) Change in net debt 8,561 10,331 (13,645) Net debt at 1 January (61,722) (48,077) (48,077) Net debt at 30 June (53,161) (37,746) (61,722) Consolidated summary balance sheet at 30 June 2004 30 June 2004 30 June 2003 31 December 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 (unaudited) (unaudited) (audited) Investments 414,133 338,967 402,895 Net current assets/(liabilities) 1,917 21,530 (7,554) Amounts falling due after one year (63,000) (63,000) (63,000) Net assets 353,050 297,497 332,341 Attributable to ordinary shareholders 353,050 297,497 332,341 Net asset value per ordinary share: 609.64p 513.71p 573.88p Number of shares in issue 57,911,367 57,911,367 57,911,367 Notes to the interim results 1. Principal activity The principal activity of the Company remains that of an investment trust. The principal activity of its trading subsidiary is investment dealing. 2. Recharges to capital and accounting policies 40% (2003, 40%) of the management fee and interest payable on the debenture stocks is charged to the revenue account and 60% (2003, 60%) is charged to capital reserves, net of corporation tax relief and inclusive of any related irrecoverable value added tax. The unaudited interim financial statements have been prepared on a basis consistent with the statutory financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2003. 3. Dividend The interim dividend of 8.64p (2003: 8.43p) per ordinary share will absorb £ 5,004,000 and will be paid on 30 September 2004 to shareholders registered on 17 September 2004. 4. Gains on investments 30 June 30 June 31 December 2004 2003 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net realised gains/(losses) 11,792 (7,898) 711 on sales Net increase in unrealised appreciation 6,833 25,102 55,833 Gains on investments 18,625 17,204 56,544 5. Income 30 June 30 June 31 December 2004 2003 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 UK dividends net of tax credits 9,535 8,942 17,148 Income from UK fixed interest securities 471 721 1,362 Scrip dividends 194 188 235 Bank interest 162 277 465 Underwriting commission - - 2 Dealing profit - 89 89 10,362 10,217 19,301 Comparative figures The information for the year ended 31 December 2003 does not constitute statutory accounts, but has been extracted from the latest published audited accounts, which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The report of the auditors on those accounts contained no qualification or statement under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. Publication This interim report is being sent to shareholders and copies will be made available to the public at the registered office of the Company.
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