Interim Results

ABERFORTH SMALLER COMPANIES TRUST plc INTERIM RESULTS For the Six Months to 30 June 2004 FEATURES Net Asset Value Total Return +14.7% Benchmark Index Total Return +10.6% Increase in Interim Dividend per Ordinary Share +7.1% Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust plc (ASCoT) invests only in small UK quoted companies and is managed by Aberforth Partners. CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS RESULTS REVIEW For the six months to 30 June 2004 Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust plc (ASCoT) achieved a total return of 14.7%, which compares with a total return of 10.6% from the Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index (Excluding Investment Companies), your Company's investment benchmark. Larger companies, as represented by the FTSE All-Share Index, registered a total return of 2.8%. Over this period, therefore, ASCoT has out-performed its benchmark and, in addition, smaller companies have out-performed larger companies. Your Board is pleased to announce an interim dividend of 3.75p per share, which represents an increase of 7.1% compared with the equivalent period last year. This rate of increase broadly reflects the underlying growth in dividends from ASCoT's portfolio. The interim dividend will be paid on 3 September 2004 to Shareholders on the register on 6 August 2004. ASCoT now operates a Dividend Re-Investment Plan and the relevant documentation is available from Aberforth Partners' website, or on request, for those Shareholders who are not already participating. Your Board is also pleased to announce the appointments of Professor Paul Marsh, Professor of Finance and Associate Dean, Finance Programmes at London Business School, and Dr. Walter Nimmo, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Inveresk Research Group Inc., as non-executive independent Directors. From different backgrounds, each brings a wealth of corporate and investment experience, not least of smaller companies, and your Board looks forward to their contribution. As Shareholders know, I shall be retiring from the Board at the Annual General Meeting in February 2005, when David Shaw will assume the role of Chairman. Following the previously mentioned appointments, he will be assisted by five non-executive independent Directors with significant breadth and depth of relevant experience. At the Annual General Meeting held in February, Shareholders renewed the authority for your Company to buy in up to 14.99% of its Ordinary Shares. Your Board has established, and keeps under careful review, the circumstances under which such authority will be utilised. Should these circumstances arise, the Company will seek to purchase Ordinary Shares. Any Ordinary Shares bought back by the Company would be cancelled rather than held in Treasury. At the Extraordinary General Meeting held in October 2003, a special resolution was approved to cancel ASCoT's entire share premium account, that also required the approval of the Court. This has now been granted and the increased special reserve that has arisen can be used for any purposes for which distributable profits are available under the Companies Act 1985, including the funding of any Ordinary Shares bought in. ASCoT is not currently geared (beyond a very small overdraft at the end of June) and has no long term debt. A flexible £80m debt facility is, however, available and may be drawn down on request. This, or similar facilities, have been used in the past to the advantage of ASCoT's Shareholders, and will no doubt be used again. INVESTMENT BACKGROUND The last six months have seen confirmation of a worldwide economic recovery. Fuelled by historically low interest rates, the US economy has driven the expansion: consensus expectations for GDP growth in 2004 are now one fifth higher than they were six months ago. The US has, though, been assisted by the nations of East Asia. Of these, China is the most notable, acting both as a source of supply of cheap goods to the developed world and as a source of demand for US dollar assets. Happily, the emerging economies of the region have been joined by Japan, for so long a laggard in terms of economic growth: Japanese GDP grew by 6% at an annualised rate in the first quarter of 2004 and has now increased for eight consecutive quarters. Importantly, this expansion is not now due only to export growth: one third of the first quarter's progress was generated by private consumption. Europe's economic performance, on the other hand, remains sluggish. Although recent survey data do suggest an improvement in prospects, much of this is attributable to the growth in demand from the rest of the world: Europe has yet to generate a self- sustaining recovery. The UK stands in contrast to its continental peers. Economic growth in 2004 is robust, supported by a combination of higher government spending, a recovery in investment and the reliable household sector. The resilience of the consumer has been bolstered by falling unemployment and average earnings growth of almost 5%. Less securely, and in a circular fashion, the continuing strength of the housing market has also played a role. In aggregate, therefore, the data pertaining to the real growth of the world's economies have, on balance, been positive over ASCoT's first half. This has been an environment conducive to a continuation of profits growth. In the UK, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have returned to levels of mid 2000. More remarkably, albeit assisted by dollar weakness, US corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have surged to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Given this and the recent exceptional level of earnings upgrades from Wall Street analysts, it is perhaps surprising that stockmarkets have not performed rather better over ASCoT's first half: in local currency and capital only terms, the S&P 500 Index is up by 2.6% and the FTSE All-Share Index by just 1.0%. Clearly, the market discounted much of the recovery, but it has also been preoccupied by other factors. The geopolitical climate remains uncertain: events in Iraq and Saudi Arabia increase the perceived risks of holding equities. More tangibly, Middle Eastern turmoil has combined with Chinese and American demand to drive up the price of oil. China's influence can also be observed in the prices of other commodities, such as steel. Commodity prices have a direct, though potentially delayed, effect on corporate profitability. With the share of GDP represented by corporate profits close to peak levels, it may prove difficult for their growth to continue exceeding that of GDP. Compounding these concerns are indications - in commodity prices, producer prices and average earnings - that the debate between inflation and deflation may be swinging towards the former camp. While such an outcome ought to prove the more benign for equities, the transition would not be painless. Such pain is most obvious in higher interest rates. In contrast to the UK, where the MPC has raised rates four times in eight months, the US has seen just one increase, on the last day of June. However, fears that the Fed may be underestimating the nascent inflation risk have been taken into account by the bond market, which, from mid March, has endured its sharpest fall since 1994. On both sides of the Atlantic, therefore, investors are confronting tighter monetary conditions, something they have not had to do for four years. The inevitable pressure on the valuation of equities - and indeed other asset classes - risks being exacerbated by the unwinding of leveraged investment strategies whose viability has relied on cheap money. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE In the first two months of 2004, small UK quoted companies sustained the momentum of the previous year, though their performance from the end of February was more subdued, possibly as the impact of higher interest rates was felt. Nevertheless, the first half as a whole saw the HGSC (XIC) Index achieve good returns both in absolute terms and relative to their larger peers. These returns were exceeded by ASCoT. ASCoT's out-performance was broadly based, with the portfolio adding value against the HGSC (XIC) Index in 22 of the 31 sectors that make up the benchmark. In common with previous phases of good relative performance, the identification of attractively valued businesses (i.e. stock selection) proved more important than the exploitation of broad industrial themes (i.e. sector selection). However, one sector worthy of note is Oil & Gas. In the six months, this accounted for over one sixth of the portfolio's capital return and for over one quarter of the benchmark's. The rising oil price was influential, but more important was the exceptional performance of the exploration companies, as certain discovery successes whetted investors' appetite for high impact drilling programmes. With greater confidence in economic growth, corporate activity continued the upturn that began in the second half of 2003. ASCoT has been a disproportionate beneficiary: twelve of its portfolio companies were at the receiving end of corporate activity in the first six months of the year. Performance was also enhanced by value creation initiatives from six other investments: such initiatives include returns of capital and disposals of non-core businesses. Not unexpectedly, equity issuance has also picked up. In its first half, ASCoT subscribed to nine fund raisings, two of which were subscriptions to initial public offerings, a relatively rare occurrence for ASCoT. An analysis of the portfolio as at 30 June 2004 suggests that the environment for dividend growth remains healthy. There were 124 companies in the portfolio at the end of June. Of these, it is the policy of 105 to pay a dividend. These 105 companies paid 99 dividends that could be earned in the first half. Of the 99, three were cuts, 25 were unchanged on the corresponding payments in the previous year and 71 were increases. The median dividend increase of the 99 companies was 8.3% year on year. Although it should be noted that ASCoT's actual receipts vary from this figure since the portfolio is actively managed, this rate of increase is encouraging: it is in excess of the rate of inflation and gives some fundamental justification to recent share price movements. INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The interplay of developments in the real economy and those in financial markets is, in the short run at least, unpredictable. It should not therefore come as a surprise that the present investment outlook is radically different from that which prevailed a year ago. As highlighted in ASCoT's previous interim report, markets then were fretting about deflation, to which the monetary authorities had reacted with lower interest rates and vague references to "unconventional measures". Twelve months on, it seems that these tactics have succeeded. Economic recovery appears well entrenched and, in combination with earlier cost cutting, has generated a strong recovery in corporate profits. Moreover, the deflationary threat seems to have receded, to the extent that investors' greater fear is now that monetary policy may have remained too loose for too long and that inflationary pressures are mounting. However, with public and private sector debt levels in developed economies remaining high, it would appear premature to write off the risk of deflation. Fine judgment on the part of central banks is required to ensure that monetary tightening - or the financial markets' anticipation of it - does not have too dramatic an effect on demand. At the very least, with interest rates rising, it would seem reasonable to expect a period of more modest economic and profits growth. In such an environment, the stockmarket might struggle to produce real returns much above the historic average of 5-7% per annum. However, within this long run average, shorter periods of exaggerated price movements - both up and down - are probable, especially in view of the activities of leveraged market participants such as hedge funds. Over the last year or so, the direction has been upwards and small companies have led the way: as the table below shows, their out-performance has taken them close to the valuation of the FTSE All-Share Index, whose historic PE and yield at the end of June were 16.1x and 3.2%. 30 June 30 June 2004 2003 Characteristics ASCoT Benchmark ASCoT Benchmark Number of Companies 124 707 103 827 Weighted Average Market £337m £414m £309m £334m Capitalisation Price Earnings Ratio 13.8x 16.0x 11.9x 13.4x (Historic) Net Dividend Yield 2.9% 2.6% 3.4% 3.0% (Historic) Dividend Cover (Historic) 2.5x 2.4x 2.5x 2.5x The table also shows that your Managers are not slaves to the benchmark. A universe of 707 companies abounds in individual opportunities for the consistent application of value investment disciplines. ASCoT's portfolio is thus well diversified but boasts a lower valuation than both the HGSC (XIC) Index and the FTSE All-Share Index. In a still uncertain world, this valuation discount should, other things being equal, be of advantage to ASCoT. William Y Hughes Chairman 16 July 2004 The Statement of Total Return, summary Balance Sheet and summary Cash Flow Statement are set out below:- STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN (Incorporating the Revenue Account1) (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2004 30 June 2003 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Realised gains/(losses) on sales - 32,788 32,788 - (1,260) (1,260) Unrealised gains - 24,673 24,673 - 47,623 47,623 ------- ------- ------ ------- ------- ------- Net gains on investments - 57,461 57,461 - 46,363 46,363 Deemed cost of Warrants purchased for cancellation - - - - (50) (50) Dividend income 8,465 - 8,465 5,988 - 5,988 Interest income 155 - 155 207 - 207 Other income 47 - 47 9 - 9 Investment management fee (805) (1,342) (2,147) (475) (792) (1,267) Other expenses (164) - (164) (146) - (146) ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Return on ordinary activities before finance costs and tax 7,698 56,119 63,817 5,583 45,521 51,104 Interest on ordinary activities (14) (23) (37) - - - ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Return on ordinary activities before tax 7,684 56,096 63,780 5,583 45,521 51,104 Tax on ordinary activities - - - - - - ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Return attributable to equity shareholders 7,684 56,096 63,780 5,583 45,521 51,104 Dividends in respect of equity shares (3,705) - (3,705) (2,969) - (2,969) ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Transfer to reserves 3,979 56,096 60,075 2,614 45,521 48,135 ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Returns per Ordinary Share: Basic 7.78p 56.77p 64.55p 6.62p 53.97p 60.59p Diluted 7.78p 56.77p 64.55p 6.59p 53.76p 60.35p Dividends per Ordinary Share 3.75p - 3.75p 3.50p - 3.50p NOTES 1. The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued in the period. 2. The calculations of revenue return per Ordinary Share are based on net revenue of £7,684,000 (30 June 2003 - £5,583,000) and on Ordinary Shares of 98,809,788 (30 June 2003 - 84,339,740) in the case of basic returns and 98,809,788 (30 June 2003 - 84,677,027) in the case of diluted returns. The calculations of capital return per Ordinary Share are based on net capital gains of £56,096,000 (30 June 2003 - £45,521,000) and on Ordinary Shares of 98,809,788 (30 June 2003 - 84,339,740) in the case of basic returns and 98,809,788 (30 June 2003 - 84,677,027) in the case of diluted returns. SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET (unaudited) 30 June 31 December 30 June 2004 2003 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 Securities officially listed on the London Stock Exchange 497,472 415,668 310,834 ------- ------- ------- Cash at bank 33 22,682 14,332 Debtors 2,914 1,048 5,233 Bank overdraft (509) - - Other creditors (8,309) (7,872) (5,434) ------- ------- ------- Net current (liabilities)/assets (5,871) 15,858 14,131 ------- ------- ------- Total assets less liabilities 491,601 431,526 324,965 ======= ======= ======= Capital and reserves: equity interests Called up share capital (Ordinary Shares) 988 988 848 Reserves: Share premium account - 63,780 2,043 Special reserve 197,305 133,525 133,525 Capital reserve - realised 192,718 161,295 149,471 Capital reserve - unrealised 85,249 60,576 25,638 Revenue reserve 15,341 11,362 13,440 ------- ------- ------- 491,601 431,526 324,965 ======= ======= ======= Net Asset Value per Ordinary Share (basic) 497.5p 436.7p 383.1p NOTES 1. As at 30 June 2004, the Company had 98,809,788 Ordinary Shares in issue (30 June 2003 - 84,818,734 and 31 December 2003 - 98,809,788). On 10 November 2003, 13,991,054 Ordinary Shares were issued to shareholders of Aberforth Split Level Trust plc under the terms of its proposed scheme of reconstruction. The consideration received, at fair value, was £61,876,000. 2. The cancellation of the share premium account, approved by shareholders at the Extraordinary General Meeting held on 29 October 2003, became effective on 21 June 2004 following approval by the Court of Session. SUMMARY CASH FLOW STATEMENT (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2004 30 June 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net cash inflow from operating activities 5,330 3,802 Returns on investments and servicing of finance (37) - Capital expenditure and financial investment Payments to acquire investments (123,687) (34,101) Receipts from sales of investments 101,757 42,390 -------- -------- Net cash (outflow)/inflow from capital expenditure and financial investment (21,930) 8,289 -------- ------- (16,637) 12,091 Equity dividends paid (6,521) (5,199) -------- ------- (23,158) 6,892 Financing Issue of Ordinary Shares - 962 Warrants purchased for cancellation - (77) ------ ------ Net cash inflow from financing - 885 -------- ------- (Decrease)/increase in cash (23,158) 7,777 ======== ======= NOTES 1. The same accounting policies used for the year to 31 December 2003 have been applied. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with applicable accounting standards and with the Statement of Recommended Practice "Financial Statements of Investment Trust Companies" (SORP). 2. The foregoing do not comprise statutory accounts (as defined in section 240(5) of the Companies Act 1985) of the Company. The statutory accounts for the year to 31 December 2003, which contained an unqualified Report of the Auditors, have been lodged with the Registrar of Companies and did not contain a statement required under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. 3. The Interim Report is expected to be posted to shareholders on 22 July 2004. Members of the public may obtain copies from Aberforth Partners, 14 Melville Street, Edinburgh EH3 7NS or from its website at www.aberforth.co.uk. CONTACT: David Warnock - Aberforth Partners - 0131 220 0733 Aberforth Partners, Secretaries - 16 July 2004 ANNOUNCEMENT ENDS
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