Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 18 September 2001 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2001 SUMMARY The deteriorating international outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings was reflected in weak equity markets in Latin America in August, as the Latin America Free index fell by 5.3% over the month. Brazil was particularly weak, falling by 10.4% in sterling terms as the Real continued to depreciate. The Chilean market proved to be more resilient, rising by 1.8% as it benefited from the defensive nature of its economy and the high weighting of utility stocks in the MSCI Chile index. Our NAV fell by 7% in August, underperforming the index largely due to our overweight Brazil position, while our share price declined by 5.5%. Last month's events have however been overshadowed by the terrorist attacks last week in New York and Washington, which caused such tragic loss of life and as yet unquantifiable damage to the US economy and in particular, to consumer confidence. Although the US equity market was closed until 17 September, emerging markets suffered some heavy falls, with Brazil in particular very weak and the currency depreciating further. Mexico was closed for most of last week. It is premature to draw firm conclusions about the impact of these events in what remains an unusually complex environment. We have therefore kept our backward-looking comments relatively brief this month with the objective of providing a more considered analysis in our next report. However, there is little doubt that the short to medium-term impact on Latin American economies and markets will be negative, as a likely recession in the US will further slow demand for regional exports, reduce the flow of foreign direct investment and impact borrowing costs as risk aversion rises. At the same time, it seems that interest rate cuts will continue in the major economies, as evidenced by the recent 50bp cut by the US Federal Reserve. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell by 1.5% in sterling terms in August. Courtesy of the IMF Argentina was again pulled back from the brink of default: such a move was not our central scenario and, indeed, undermines the equity case for the Southern Cone countries, in particular Brazil. By dispersing an immediate U$5 billion, the IMF has stemmed the outflow of bank deposits and reserves, while by offering a further U$3 billion to aid the voluntary restructuring of sovereign debt the IMF is encouraging the Argentine authorities to consider a wider debt swap. This would be positive if achieved but the proposal will make the necessary spending cuts by the provinces exceedingly difficult to implement. We are left questioning Argentina's ability to meet the zero fiscal deficit agreed with the IMF while the economy remains in recession; as a result, the IMF disbursement should be recognised as buying time rather than solving the problem. Nevertheless, the new global environment may mean more willingness to support countries in short-term financial difficulties, such as Argentina. BRAZIL Given the IMF bailout of Argentina in August we must now hold a more bearish stance: the Brazilian economy will continue to be undermined by the weak economic structure in place in Argentina. Even if Brazil continues to be supported by the multilateral institutions, there is little opportunity for currency appreciation in the near term and, consequently, inflationary pressures will remain. Our expectation that interest rates could be cut to 15.5% over the next twelve months now looks too optimistic. The fiscal performance of Brazil remains extremely impressive with the primary surplus now 5% of GDP on an annualised basis, however higher interest costs have lead to a deterioration of the nominal deficit, and foreign direct investment will likely shrink further. To improve, Brazil needs a resolution in Argentina. We have chosen to retain two significant stock overweight positions in Brazil; Banco Itau and Ambev; these are both first-rate franchises in the banking and beverage sectors respectively, with sustainable earnings growth. CHILE The first green shoots of recovery seem to be starting to show in Chile, although downside risks remain significant. This realisation combined with the strengthening currency helped the stock market to outperform in August. Aggressive interest rate cuts in the first half, which took real rates to 3.5%, seem to have had some impact on consumers: retail sales rose by 3.8% yoy in June, the strongest rise since April 2000, although they were weaker again in July; the fact that unemployment was more or less flat at 9.8% in July should help sustain confidence. MEXICO The Mexican market fell by 4.3% in sterling terms during August. Economic releases reflected an economy slowing more sharply than expected, with official estimates of economic growth in 2001 continuing to be revised down. The economy grew at 6.8% last year and having shrunk in both Q1 and Q2 is now officially in recession. It is the industrial sector which continues to bear the brunt of the slowdown. Manufacturing has now recorded a 2.3% fall January to June with construction output down 5.3% over the same period. Fixed capital formation declined 5.5% in Q2 2001, with private consumption the only real motor of demand. The trade deficit has been remarkably stable given the slowdown in exports and the peso's strength against the U$ dollar; this improvement is largely driven by declining internal demand, with consumer goods imports down by 8.5% y/y. We remain slightly overweight Mexican equities with a bias towards the most defensive names. ANDEAN MARKETS Although the Andean markets, particularly Peru (+3.3%) outperformed during August, they have become increasingly marginal within a Latin American portfolio as companies are delisted and liquidity deteriorates. During the month, US utility AES made a tender offer for the incumbent Venezuelan telecom operator, CANTV. If this offer is accepted by minority shareholders it will be the last liquid listed equity in Venezuela. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/08/01 31/07/01 31/08/01 31/07/01 76.5p 82.3p 81.5p 86.0p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/08/01 31/07/01 Ordinary Shares 64.25p 68.00p Warrants 15.50p 17.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £36.7 million (£39.5 million). Market exposure 31/08/01 31/07/01 % % EQUITIES Brazil 32.7 33.2 Chile 10.8 9.8 Mexico 37.4 37.4 Venezuela 0.6 1.1 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 81.5 81.5 Net Current Assets 18.5 18.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £47.1 million (£50.0 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/08/01 31/07/01 28.2% 26.6% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £33.8 million equal to 88.1% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 5,612 14.6 Petrobras Brazil 3,405 8.9 Banco Itau Brazil 2,617 6.8 Ambev Brazil 2,263 5.9 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,855 4.8 Cemex Mexico 1,439 3.7 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,377 3.6 Femsa Mexico 1,337 3.5 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,333 3.5 America Movil Brazil 1,324 3.4 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,214 3.2 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,165 3.0 Enersis Chile 888 2.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 838 2.2 Brasil Telecom Brazil 787 2.0 Sirder Nacional Brazil 764 2.0 Eletrobras Centrais Brazil 754 2.0 D & S Chile 716 1.9 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 702 1.8 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 679 1.8 Copel Parana Energy Brazil 606 1.6 Consorcio Mexico 556 1.4 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 532 1.4 Gerdau Brazil 528 1.4 Unibanco Brazil 526 1.4 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Half year 31 August 2001 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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