Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
9 October 2001
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2001
SUMMARY
The terrorist attacks of September 11th had a significant negative impact on
all global equity markets. Latin America was no exception and was hit
particularly hard as investors sought to reduce their exposure to more risky
asset classes. The MSCI Latin America Free Index declined by 17.1% in sterling
terms during September, led down by Argentina which fell by 24.5%. The smaller
markets significantly outperformed due to their lower liquidity. Emerging
equity markets fell in line with Latin America, with MSCI EMF declining by
16.6% over the month. In general, the region did not benefit from the rally
seen in the last week of September in developed markets, which left MSCI World
down just 9.9% in sterling terms despite earlier heavy falls.
Our NAV fell by less than the index over the month, declining by 15.4% in
sterling terms, due to our zero weighting in Argentina and relatively good
stock selection. However the share price declined by 21% as the discount
widened in common with most other emerging markets trusts.
Although uncertainty prevails over the economic, financial and political
implications of a conflict, one thing is generally agreed: growth will be less
strong than previously forecast. The US was already in a slowdown before the
attack: consumers, concerned by job losses and weak equity markets, were
behaving more cautiously. Since the attacks, consumer confidence is likely to
have suffered further, leading to a potential collapse in US import demand.
Suddenly, Latin American exporters will face less demand and consequently
lower prices for their goods. At the same time, international companies are
reducing capital expenditure to boost their own cash flow and pay down debt.
This means that foreign direct investment in Latin America is likely to be
much less this year and next than was expected. And a rise in risk aversion
means that yields on risky assets, such as Latin American government debt,
have risen. The region's dependence on external capital is a significant
negative in this environment. However, it remains to be seen how deep and
prolonged the recession will become. On the positive side, policy makers
worldwide have been proactive in cutting interest rates and there is already
more fiscal stimulus planned in the US. As a result, we believe that a
recovery will emerge in the first half of next year, from which Latin America,
and in particular Mexico, stand to benefit.
There is no doubt that valuations in our key markets have become more
attractive of late, and even factoring in a much more negative earnings
outlook we believe that there is value to be found. Many major companies have
been buying back their own shares in recent weeks, which we take to be a
positive signal. We also feel that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso has
given us a more attractive entry point and therefore we have been increasing
our position in favoured stocks at these levels. Overall, after several months
of respositioning the portfolio, Mexico is now our largest overweight among
the markets in which we invest.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market fell by 24.5% in September, the weakest of all the
regional markets. The reasons for this steep decline were firstly the more
negative external scenario, which caused the spread at which Argentine bonds
trade over US treasuries to widen considerably, as the likelihood of growth
receded and risk aversion grew. However, there have also been negative
developments on the domestic front. Economic data continue to indicate a dire
situation, with activity slowing and tax collection falling steeply year on
year. Under the zero deficit policy, this requires a further fiscal
adjustment, which in turn is likely to bring further economic contraction. The
proximity of the elections on October 14th is also encouraging a certain
amount of loose talk from politicians opposed to Cavallo about alternative
policies, including debt restructuring, that have alarmed the markets. We
remain zero weighted in Argentina.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian currency, the Real, touched new lows in September as concerns
grew about Brazil's ability to finance its current account deficit in an
environment of rising risk aversion and lower foreign direct investment. We
saw a shift in Central Bank policy as interest rates were kept on hold at 19%
while an attempt was made to defend the currency by reducing liquidity in the
banking system, which had some success. The optimistic view is that Brazil's
trade balance will rapidly turn around given the weaker currency and weaker
internal demand, which will also dampen inflationary pressures. We are,
however, concerned that Brazil's deteriorating debt dynamics (due to currency
weakness) and potential inflationary pass through, might make a more severe
adjustment necessary, which would depress growth still further. As a result,
we have become more negative in our outlook for Brazil; despite the
significant correction we have seen in the market, much of this has so far
been currency related. We have further reduced positions in several stocks, as
we consider the earnings outlook to be relatively weak, and potential downside
risk still high, despite apparently attractive valuations.
MEXICO
Mexico also suffered a heavy fall of 16.7% in September, due to its exposure
to trade with the US, and the falling oil price, as well as evidence of an
already stagnant domestic economy. Retail sales figures are now much weaker
and industrial production continues to be in decline. The seemingly
invulnerable peso depreciated by almost 4% against the US dollar and is now
trading at a level of P9.6. Little progress also appears to have been made on
the long-awaited fiscal reform.
The weakest shares were those with heavy US exposure, such as the autoparts
sector, particularly after conglomerate San Luis defaulted on its debt;
airport operator ASUR, retailer Elektra and copper producer Grupo Mexico.
However, we saw significant buyback programmes in place at companies such as
Telmex, America Movil, Walmex and Cemex, which we find an encouraging sign. We
also believe that Mexico's economy is fundamentally sound, which allows it
more policy flexibility than most in the region and that it will benefit from
the interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages in the US. We have
therefore added to our existing holdings in Mexico where we believe that the
companies' prospects are sound and valuations attractive.
CHILE
Chile suffered from further currency weakness in September as the peso
depreciated by 5.0% against the US dollar and copper prices also declined. The
Chilean index declined by 18.6%, for once giving the lie to its safe haven
status. Falls were greatest among the most liquid ADR stocks. However, we
continue to like the Chilean market; economic data recently released has
confirmed the ongoing, if slow recovery and recent reforms to capital markets
and the labour laws have been passed, ending months of stalemate. We will be
visiting Chile at the end of October to talk directly to company management
but meanwhile we have taken advantage of recent weakness to top up some of our
Chilean positions.
ANDEAN MARKETS
Peru outperformed in September as the rally in the gold price boosted interest
in the shares of miner Buenaventura. The Peruvian government has also
announced a series of economic measures designed to encourage growth, which
have been generally well-received. We are also visiting Peru this month in
order to test the mood of company management and the outlook for corporate
earnings growth. The AES bid for telephone company CANTV in Venezuela made the
market the region's best performer for the month. We sold our holding just
ahead of the formal tender offer, achieving a price close to that contained in
the bid because of our scepticism that the offer would be improved either by
AES or another bidder (Telefonica, the most likely, having recently pulled out
of its offer for CRT Celular in Brazil). Colombia was also relatively
resilient despite the weaker oil price. However, both these countries now face
a more difficult external scenario and with the eventual bid for CANTV,
severely reduced liquidity, so that we are unlikely to re-enter for some time.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/09/01 31/08/01 30/09/01 31/08/01
64.7p 76.5p 72.2p 81.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/09/01 31/08/01
Ordinary Shares 50.75p 64.25p
Warrants 10.50p 15.50p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £30.9 million (£36.7
million).
Market exposure
30/09/01 31/08/01
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 27.9 32.7
Chile 10.9 10.8
Mexico 37.9 37.4
Venezuela - 0.6
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 76.7 81.5
Net Current Assets 23.3 18.5
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £41.1 million (£47.1 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/09/01 31/08/01
33.0% 28.2%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £28.1 million equal to 89.0% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 4,899 15.5
Petrobras Brazil 2,815 8.9
Banco Itau Brazil 1,846 5.9
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,581 5.0
Ambev Brazil 1,343 4.3
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,336 4.2
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,288 4.1
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,192 3.8
America Movil Mexico 1,150 3.6
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,138 3.6
Cemex Mexico 1,133 3.6
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 847 2.7
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 772 2.4
Telecom de Chile Chile 770 2.4
D & S Chile 747 2.4
Enersis Chile 731 2.3
Eletrobras Brazil 653 2.1
Consorcio Ara Mexico 579 1.8
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 556 1.8
Brasil Telecom Brazil 550 1.7
Femsa Mexico 514 1.6
Banco Santander Chile 460 1.5
Copel Brazil 422 1.3
Gerdau Brazil 410 1.3
Unibanco Brazil 386 1.2
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark
Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim
and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website
located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management
Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a
guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not
get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also
affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets
which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.