Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 12 December 2001 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2001 SUMMARY Latin American markets saw strong gains in November, as risk tolerance rose among investors prepared to disregard Argentina's troubles and take advantage of the recent selloff to acquire stocks at undervalued levels. The MSCI Latin America Free Index rose by 7.9% over the month in sterling terms. This recovery mirrored gains in the rest of the world, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Index advancing strongly, and high beta emerging markets such as Korea, Taiwan and Turkey all recording double-digit percentage gains. Global markets were encouraged by the further rate cut in November by the US Federal Reserve and by lower oil prices, and seemed prepared to look through relatively gloomy economic data to anticipate a recovery mid-next year. We also saw signs of improved supply discipline in two of Latin America's key commodity markets, copper and steel, which should indicate a bottoming of prices. As a result, despite another lurch downwards in Argentina, the Brazilian and Chilean currencies rallied and the stock markets welcomed some positive developments including the reduction of energy rationing in Brazil and an improvement in the trade balance. Mexico underperformed, under pressure from lower oil prices and continuing speculation over new excise taxes in next year's budget. Our performance was encouraging, with the NAV rising by 8.9%; our share price appreciated by 15.4% as the discount narrowed. Asset allocation was positive overall, as we benefited from our underweight in Argentina, Venezuela and our small overweights in the well-performing Brazilian and Chilean markets. As the year draws to a close and market liquidity tends to decline, we see little dampening of the positive mood in Brazil, including real strength in the currency, despite what looks like the imminent default of Argentina. We expect that interest rates should be able to fall somewhat in Brazil next year as long as the improvement in the trade balance can be maintained and inflation kept under control. As a result we are maintaining our position (now close to neutral as a result of recent MSCI index changes) with a bias to add on weakness. In turn, we believe that Mexico is set to benefit from a US recovery, which will help company earnings, and that the currency will remain strong on inward investment flows, although interest rates have probably bottomed. MEXICO The Mexican market rose less than the regional index in November, with the MSCI Mexico Index appreciating by 5.5% in sterling terms. This was largely due to the continued weakness of the oil price, which has led Mexico, as a major oil producer, to cut its government spending plans for this year and next. Uncertainty over the outcome of the ongoing discussions on fiscal reform also continued, and there were rumours that an alternative proposal involving excise taxes on soft drinks and on telecoms services was gaining ground. Investors marked down companies in those sectors as a result. However there was better news for the low income-housing sector as additional funds for next year were announced. The market has been disappointed at the slowness of the government's execution of its reform agenda. Data continues to point to the deceleration of the Mexican economy: unemployment jumped to 2.9% in October; manufacturing is already weak and there are definite signs that consumption too is slowing. However the currency is robust, at P9.2, keeping inflation subdued and allowing interest rates to fall significantly. In a highly strategic move, Telmex announced its intention to invest $400m in XO Communications, a provider of broadband telecoms services in the US. Telmex's wireless sister company, America Movil, has also benefited from ongoing rationalisation of the Brazilian cellular market, where it has several unprofitable subsidiaries. We made few changes to our Mexican portfolio during the month. Overall, defensive shares such as Walmex and Modelo underperformed, as did Coca-Cola Femsa, hit by the rumoured excise tax on soft drinks. The house building sector moved strongly, which was reflected in a rise in our preferred holding, Consorcio Ara. America Movil and Televisa also did well. We remain overweight Mexico. BRAZIL The Brazilian market had an extremely strong November, rising by 11.7% in sterling terms. Much of this was due to currency appreciation, as the Real strengthened by 9% against the US dollar over the month. The principal reason behind the currency strength was a decline in hedging activity by banks and corporates, brought about partly by new Central Bank measures to limit short-term currency market activity. Despite the background of increasingly bad news from neighbouring Argentina, Brazil was able to focus on more positive domestic news flow such as the reduction in electricity rationing, the improvement in the trade balance (where a US$2bn surplus is now expected by year end), good primary fiscal results, and the beneficial effect of lower oil prices. The market seemed largely untroubled by the lack of bidders for power company Copel or by the uptick in inflation figures in October, when benchmark IPCA reached 0.8% month on month, an annual level of 7.2%, well above the top end of the government's target range of 4-6% for this year. However, after a concerted campaign by senior Central Bank figures, restating their commitment to next year's inflation target, market expectations have adjusted to show a more gradual reduction in interest rates than many hoped for earlier in the month. The strongest performers in November were telecoms, particularly the beaten-up fixed line segment, and steel companies, which had suffered steep falls year to date. In contrast, more defensive, export-linked stocks fared less well. We have taken profits where we believe price rises to be overdone, as we think there may be some volatility when the situation in Argentina worsens, but overall we are pleased with the market's more positive tone and would look to add to our currently neutral position on any weakness. CHILE The Chilean market also performed strongly in November, up 11.6% in sterling terms as the currency appreciated by 4.4% against the dollar and key stocks bounced off their lows. The currency was boosted by news of production cuts among major copper producers, which improved the pricing outlook for Chile's major export commodity. Weak oil prices also help Chile as an oil importer. This, in addition to investors' improved risk tolerance, driven by high levels of liquidity, allowed the Chilean market to decouple from Argentina concerns. We recently met the new Chairman of CTC, who reassured us on the operating outlook for that company and on his new approach to dealing with the regulator. The near-term outlook is still fragile, with growth slowing, although still positive, but we like the market for the medium term and maintain a small overweight there. ARGENTINA The most recent developments in Argentina are far from positive and have been well covered in the press. The market declined by 2.1% over the month in sterling terms. During November, weak economic activity continued to pressure tax receipts, progress on the $50bn local debt exchange was slower than had been hoped, and the government was riven by several resignations - showing that tensions were running high. The IMF seemed to be visibly backing away from lending more money to the country this year. The spread of Argentine bonds over US Treasuries widened to over 3000bps during the month (for comparison, Brazilian bonds are currently yielding 900bps, and Mexico +370bps) reflecting investors' increased perception of an imminent debt default. Worried Argentines started to withdraw more cash from the banks with the result that the government had to announce a series of measures to limit deposit flight. In the current climate of uncertainty we expect that the next step will be either dollarisation or devaluation of the peso. In either case, the outlook is bleak, and we remain zero weighted. ANDEAN MARKETS The smaller markets showed divergent performance in November, with Colombia rising strongly after an interest rate cut and good earnings from major bank Bancolombia propelled the stock. Venezuela however declined by 6.8% in sterling terms on the back of lower oil prices and the expiry of AES' tender offer for CANTV. The political situation also worsened with strong exchanges on both sides ahead of a planned general strike. Peru, meanwhile, rose by only 2.5%, as better news on commodity prices and some signs of a mining-driven recovery in growth supported the market. Credicorp announced the sale of its bank in El Salvador and a stake in Peru's leading brewer, Backus, the proceeds of which will be used to further boost loan loss reserves and to pay out a dividend. We remain zero-weighted in the Andean region. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/11/01 31/10/01 30/11/01 31/10/01 74.8p 68.7p 80.1p 75.3p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/01 31/10/01 Ordinary Shares 63.75p 55.25p Warrants 12.25p 10.00p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £35.8 million (£32.9 million). Market exposure 30/11/01 31/10/01 % % EQUITIES Brazil 29.5 26.3 Chile 10.8 10.3 Mexico 38.4 39.0 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 78.7 75.6 Net Current Assets 21.3 24.4 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £46.3 million (£43.2 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/11/01 31/10/01 29.4% 31.4% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £32.9 million equal to 90.5% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 5,240 14.4 Petrobras Brazil 3,316 9.1 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,877 5.2 Banco Itau Brazil 1,836 5.0 Ambev Brazil 1,652 4.5 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,453 4.0 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,434 4.0 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,418 3.9 America Movil Brazil 1,387 3.8 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,382 3.8 Cemex Mexico 1,276 3.5 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 941 2.6 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 933 2.6 Telecom de Chile Chile 927 2.5 Enersis Chile 831 2.3 D & S Chile 828 2.3 Itausa Inv Brazil 810 2.2 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 787 2.2 Consorcio Ara Mexico 777 2.1 Eletrobras Brazil 742 2.0 Gerdau Brazil 722 2.0 Pao de Acucar Brazil 651 1.8 Femsa Mexico 634 1.7 Brasil Telecom Brazil 574 1.6 Copel Brazil 523 1.4 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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