Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
12 December 2001
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2001
SUMMARY
Latin American markets saw strong gains in November, as risk tolerance rose
among investors prepared to disregard Argentina's troubles and take advantage
of the recent selloff to acquire stocks at undervalued levels. The MSCI Latin
America Free Index rose by 7.9% over the month in sterling terms. This
recovery mirrored gains in the rest of the world, with the technology-heavy
Nasdaq Index advancing strongly, and high beta emerging markets such as Korea,
Taiwan and Turkey all recording double-digit percentage gains. Global markets
were encouraged by the further rate cut in November by the US Federal Reserve
and by lower oil prices, and seemed prepared to look through relatively gloomy
economic data to anticipate a recovery mid-next year. We also saw signs of
improved supply discipline in two of Latin America's key commodity markets,
copper and steel, which should indicate a bottoming of prices. As a result,
despite another lurch downwards in Argentina, the Brazilian and Chilean
currencies rallied and the stock markets welcomed some positive developments
including the reduction of energy rationing in Brazil and an improvement in
the trade balance. Mexico underperformed, under pressure from lower oil prices
and continuing speculation over new excise taxes in next year's budget.
Our performance was encouraging, with the NAV rising by 8.9%; our share price
appreciated by 15.4% as the discount narrowed. Asset allocation was positive
overall, as we benefited from our underweight in Argentina, Venezuela and our
small overweights in the well-performing Brazilian and Chilean markets.
As the year draws to a close and market liquidity tends to decline, we see
little dampening of the positive mood in Brazil, including real strength in
the currency, despite what looks like the imminent default of Argentina. We
expect that interest rates should be able to fall somewhat in Brazil next year
as long as the improvement in the trade balance can be maintained and
inflation kept under control. As a result we are maintaining our position (now
close to neutral as a result of recent MSCI index changes) with a bias to add
on weakness. In turn, we believe that Mexico is set to benefit from a US
recovery, which will help company earnings, and that the currency will remain
strong on inward investment flows, although interest rates have probably
bottomed.
MEXICO
The Mexican market rose less than the regional index in November, with the
MSCI Mexico Index appreciating by 5.5% in sterling terms. This was largely due
to the continued weakness of the oil price, which has led Mexico, as a major
oil producer, to cut its government spending plans for this year and next.
Uncertainty over the outcome of the ongoing discussions on fiscal reform also
continued, and there were rumours that an alternative proposal involving
excise taxes on soft drinks and on telecoms services was gaining ground.
Investors marked down companies in those sectors as a result. However there
was better news for the low income-housing sector as additional funds for next
year were announced. The market has been disappointed at the slowness of the
government's execution of its reform agenda.
Data continues to point to the deceleration of the Mexican economy:
unemployment jumped to 2.9% in October; manufacturing is already weak and
there are definite signs that consumption too is slowing. However the currency
is robust, at P9.2, keeping inflation subdued and allowing interest rates to
fall significantly. In a highly strategic move, Telmex announced its intention
to invest $400m in XO Communications, a provider of broadband telecoms
services in the US. Telmex's wireless sister company, America Movil, has also
benefited from ongoing rationalisation of the Brazilian cellular market, where
it has several unprofitable subsidiaries.
We made few changes to our Mexican portfolio during the month. Overall,
defensive shares such as Walmex and Modelo underperformed, as did Coca-Cola
Femsa, hit by the rumoured excise tax on soft drinks. The house building
sector moved strongly, which was reflected in a rise in our preferred holding,
Consorcio Ara. America Movil and Televisa also did well. We remain overweight
Mexico.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market had an extremely strong November, rising by 11.7% in
sterling terms. Much of this was due to currency appreciation, as the Real
strengthened by 9% against the US dollar over the month. The principal reason
behind the currency strength was a decline in hedging activity by banks and
corporates, brought about partly by new Central Bank measures to limit
short-term currency market activity. Despite the background of increasingly
bad news from neighbouring Argentina, Brazil was able to focus on more
positive domestic news flow such as the reduction in electricity rationing,
the improvement in the trade balance (where a US$2bn surplus is now expected
by year end), good primary fiscal results, and the beneficial effect of lower
oil prices. The market seemed largely untroubled by the lack of bidders for
power company Copel or by the uptick in inflation figures in October, when
benchmark IPCA reached 0.8% month on month, an annual level of 7.2%, well
above the top end of the government's target range of 4-6% for this year.
However, after a concerted campaign by senior Central Bank figures, restating
their commitment to next year's inflation target, market expectations have
adjusted to show a more gradual reduction in interest rates than many hoped
for earlier in the month.
The strongest performers in November were telecoms, particularly the beaten-up
fixed line segment, and steel companies, which had suffered steep falls year
to date. In contrast, more defensive, export-linked stocks fared less well. We
have taken profits where we believe price rises to be overdone, as we think
there may be some volatility when the situation in Argentina worsens, but
overall we are pleased with the market's more positive tone and would look to
add to our currently neutral position on any weakness.
CHILE
The Chilean market also performed strongly in November, up 11.6% in sterling
terms as the currency appreciated by 4.4% against the dollar and key stocks
bounced off their lows. The currency was boosted by news of production cuts
among major copper producers, which improved the pricing outlook for Chile's
major export commodity. Weak oil prices also help Chile as an oil importer.
This, in addition to investors' improved risk tolerance, driven by high levels
of liquidity, allowed the Chilean market to decouple from Argentina concerns.
We recently met the new Chairman of CTC, who reassured us on the operating
outlook for that company and on his new approach to dealing with the
regulator. The near-term outlook is still fragile, with growth slowing,
although still positive, but we like the market for the medium term and
maintain a small overweight there.
ARGENTINA
The most recent developments in Argentina are far from positive and have been
well covered in the press. The market declined by 2.1% over the month in
sterling terms. During November, weak economic activity continued to pressure
tax receipts, progress on the $50bn local debt exchange was slower than had
been hoped, and the government was riven by several resignations - showing
that tensions were running high. The IMF seemed to be visibly backing away
from lending more money to the country this year. The spread of Argentine
bonds over US Treasuries widened to over 3000bps during the month (for
comparison, Brazilian bonds are currently yielding 900bps, and Mexico +370bps)
reflecting investors' increased perception of an imminent debt default.
Worried Argentines started to withdraw more cash from the banks with the
result that the government had to announce a series of measures to limit
deposit flight. In the current climate of uncertainty we expect that the next
step will be either dollarisation or devaluation of the peso. In either case,
the outlook is bleak, and we remain zero weighted.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The smaller markets showed divergent performance in November, with Colombia
rising strongly after an interest rate cut and good earnings from major bank
Bancolombia propelled the stock. Venezuela however declined by 6.8% in
sterling terms on the back of lower oil prices and the expiry of AES' tender
offer for CANTV. The political situation also worsened with strong exchanges
on both sides ahead of a planned general strike. Peru, meanwhile, rose by only
2.5%, as better news on commodity prices and some signs of a mining-driven
recovery in growth supported the market. Credicorp announced the sale of its
bank in El Salvador and a stake in Peru's leading brewer, Backus, the proceeds
of which will be used to further boost loan loss reserves and to pay out a
dividend. We remain zero-weighted in the Andean region.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/11/01 31/10/01 30/11/01 31/10/01
74.8p 68.7p 80.1p 75.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/01 31/10/01
Ordinary Shares 63.75p 55.25p
Warrants 12.25p 10.00p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £35.8 million (£32.9
million).
Market exposure
30/11/01 31/10/01
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 29.5 26.3
Chile 10.8 10.3
Mexico 38.4 39.0
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 78.7 75.6
Net Current Assets 21.3 24.4
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £46.3 million (£43.2 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/11/01 31/10/01
29.4% 31.4%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £32.9 million equal to 90.5% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 5,240 14.4
Petrobras Brazil 3,316 9.1
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,877 5.2
Banco Itau Brazil 1,836 5.0
Ambev Brazil 1,652 4.5
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,453 4.0
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,434 4.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,418 3.9
America Movil Brazil 1,387 3.8
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,382 3.8
Cemex Mexico 1,276 3.5
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 941 2.6
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 933 2.6
Telecom de Chile Chile 927 2.5
Enersis Chile 831 2.3
D & S Chile 828 2.3
Itausa Inv Brazil 810 2.2
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 787 2.2
Consorcio Ara Mexico 777 2.1
Eletrobras Brazil 742 2.0
Gerdau Brazil 722 2.0
Pao de Acucar Brazil 651 1.8
Femsa Mexico 634 1.7
Brasil Telecom Brazil 574 1.6
Copel Brazil 523 1.4
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark
Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim
and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website
located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back
the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the
value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at
times be illiquid and/or volatile.