Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
14 November 2001
DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2001
SUMMARY
Latin American markets bounced back in October, and have continued their
strong run into the early part of November, helped by a global rally in
technology and cyclical names, perceived to have been oversold in the
aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. The MSCI Latin America Free
Index rose by 4.9% in sterling terms over the month, led by a strong
performance in both Mexico and Brazil. Overall, markets seemed to have
overcome their previous extreme risk aversion, a theme echoed in other
emerging market regions, where Korea, Taiwan and India all did well. There
were also signs of Brazil being able to avoid some of the negative impact of
the latest crisis in Argentina.
Our performance was good over the month, with our NAV rising by 6.2%, ahead of
the index. Asset allocation was particularly strong, benefiting from our
underweight Argentina, overweight Mexico stance. We also had good stock
selection in Mexico. Encouragingly, our share price also rose by 8.9%.
As we write, the Brazilian market in particular has seen strong gains over
recent days, with some stocks rising by well over 20% in a week and the
currency strengthening. We believe that this shows that regional stock markets
were at an oversold level. However, with Argentina announcing an effective
default on its debt and little political support in that country for the tough
measures needed to comply with the zero fiscal deficit policy, we foresee
further volatility ahead. The news on global demand continues to deteriorate,
and despite central banks' attempts to stimulate demand by cutting interest
rates, recovery is likely to be slow. As a result, we maintain a relatively
cautious stance, favouring Mexico and Chile over Brazil and zero-weighted in
Argentina. We have also not increased our effective gearing levels but have
taken profits where we believe recent price moves may have been overdone.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market rose by 6.5% in sterling terms over the month. Both the
equity market and the currency were solid in the face of renewed volatility in
Argentina and there were signs of renewed interest in cyclical stocks.
Inflation data has been relatively stable, although showing signs of a slight
currency-related uptick in October; an end is in sight for the energy crisis;
the trade balance is showing a marked improvement, helped by the weaker Real,
lower oil prices and subdued import demand; and with Argentina imploding, the
markets began to anticipate an end to that problem too. However, in a sign
that investment flows next year are unlikely to be strong, no bidders came
forward for the sale of Copel, the integrated power utility of Parana state.
We retain a small overweight in Brazil, with some cyclical names in the
portfolio, including long steelmaker Gerdau, one of the market's top
performers in October after a strong earnings report.
MEXICO
The Mexican market rose by 7.2% in October, making it the region's best
performer. Again, we saw some strong rallies in cyclical names which the
market perceived to have been oversold. The currency moved back to P9.2
against the dollar, strengthening 2.7% over the month, largely as a result of
strong portfolio inflows. Year to date the peso has appreciated by 4% against
the dollar. Corporate earnings were positive for several large names,
particularly retailer Walmex, and economic data, while indicating a slowdown,
led by manufacturing, have been generally within expectations. However the
recent steep decline in the oil price has caused the Mexican government to
announce a $330m budget cut in order to achieve this year's announced fiscal
deficit target of 0.65% of GDP. It is positive to see that the government is
determined to maintain its policy credibility in the face of weaker revenues.
Disappointingly, there has been little outward sign of progress on the fiscal
reform bill, with negotiations continuing and next year's budget prepared
assuming no additional revenues. There were strong rumours during the month
that the highly profitable soft drinks industry was being selected to bear the
brunt of an increased excise tax. This caused a selloff in the prices of the
soft drink bottlers. However, so far no concrete news has emerged, and the
bottlers themselves, while lobbying strongly against the idea, cannot be
certain that it will not go through. We have also seen concerns rising over
the financial position of a number of leveraged Mexican industrial groups,
including copper producer Grupo Mexico following the default of autoparts
manufacturer San Luis last month and ongoing worries over the balance sheet of
steel company Hylsamex. These companies are typically facing problems after a
period of expansion, unable to service their debt due to lower revenues on
commodity-type products and with the strong peso reducing the value of export
income. So far the banks have assured us that there has been little
deterioration in credit quality outside these groups.
We maintain an overweight position in Mexico with a bias towards strong cash
flow generative, domestically focused companies such as Telmex, Bancomer and
Walmex.
CHILE
The Chilean market rose by 1.5% in sterling terms in October, despite
continued currency weakness, with the Chilean peso falling by over 3% against
the dollar. Economic data continued to be relatively poor, with industrial
production numbers in September showing a slowdown from the better second
quarter, and the growing trade deficit revealing the extent of the decline in
exports given the slump in commodity prices and weak global demand.
Unemployment rose to 10.1% in September, contributing to poor consumer
confidence. Inflation for October fell, reflecting the decline in oil prices
and fragile domestic demand despite the steep fall in the currency. We believe
that the low level of domestic interest rates and government job creation
schemes should have some success in maintaining activity, but that the key to
Chile's growth problem is a recovery in global demand. Despite this slow
progress, the majority of Chilean companies have solid balance sheets and
should be able to withstand another year of subdued growth. We remain slightly
overweight, with a bias towards companies whose earnings are less affected by
the domestic economy.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market fell by 9.4% in sterling terms in October, the worst
performer in the region. Despite a relief rally early in the month following
legislative elections, plans for a major restructuring of both domestic and
external debt alarmed foreign investors, and there were strong signals of
political opposition to the zero deficit policy among the provincial
governors. As a result, the government has struggled to obtain support for a
crucial deal on revenue sharing with the provinces, which has hardly impressed
the IMF or the US Treasury whose backing it needs for the debt restructuring
deal to be accepted. The major rating agencies have already treated the
proposal, by which bonds would be exchanged for debt with a fixed 7% interest
rate, as a technical default. The domestic economy is now clearly imploding,
with steep double-digit falls in industrial production, tax collection,
consumer confidence and imports seen in recent months. We continue to believe
that Argentina will find no easy solution to its problems and stay zero
weighted in the market.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The smaller Andean markets reversed their third quarter outperformance and
declined between 3.2% (Venezuela) and 6.3% (Colombia) for the month. Political
uncertainty is high in Peru, which is impeding domestic business confidence,
despite an improvement in economic data, led by the startup of the Antamina
copper mine. Oil prices weighed on Colombia, despite lower interest rates and
IMF support. Venezuela was much the same story, affected by weak oil prices,
falling hopes of a rival offer to AES for CANTV, and controversial changes to
the rules for the Macro Stabilization Fund which is designed to smooth out the
swings in the oil price cycle. There is little in these markets to tempt us
back at current prices.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/10/01 30/09/01 31/10/01 30/09/01
68.7p 64.7p 75.3p 72.2p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/10/01 30/09/01
Ordinary Shares 55.25p 50.75p
Warrants 10.00p 10.50p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £32.9 million (£30.9
million).
Market exposure
31/10/01 30/09/01
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 26.3 27.9
Chile 10.3 10.9
Mexico 39.0 37.9
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 75.6 76.7
Net Current Assets 24.4 23.3
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £43.2 million (£41.1 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/10/01 30/09/01
31.4% 33.0%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.7 million equal to 91.1% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 5,223 16.0
Petrobras Brazil 2,881 8.8
Banco Itau Brazil 1,869 5.7
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,825 5.6
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,430 4.4
Ambev Brazil 1,385 4.3
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,377 4.2
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,326 4.1
Cemex Mexico 1,282 3.9
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,221 3.7
America Movil Mexico 1,176 3.6
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 870 2.7
Telecom de Chile Chile 814 2.5
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 764 2.3
Enersis Chile 743 2.3
Eletrobras Brazil 743 2.3
D & S Chile 732 2.2
Consorcio Ara Mexico 644 2.0
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 631 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 572 1.8
Femsa Mexico 566 1.7
Brasil Telecom Brazil 425 1.3
Unibanco Brazil 423 1.3
Banco Santander Chile 422 1.3
Grupo IMSA Mexico 389 1.2
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark
Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim
and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website
located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back
the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the
value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at
times be illiquid and/or volatile.