Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 14 November 2001 DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2001 SUMMARY Latin American markets bounced back in October, and have continued their strong run into the early part of November, helped by a global rally in technology and cyclical names, perceived to have been oversold in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. The MSCI Latin America Free Index rose by 4.9% in sterling terms over the month, led by a strong performance in both Mexico and Brazil. Overall, markets seemed to have overcome their previous extreme risk aversion, a theme echoed in other emerging market regions, where Korea, Taiwan and India all did well. There were also signs of Brazil being able to avoid some of the negative impact of the latest crisis in Argentina. Our performance was good over the month, with our NAV rising by 6.2%, ahead of the index. Asset allocation was particularly strong, benefiting from our underweight Argentina, overweight Mexico stance. We also had good stock selection in Mexico. Encouragingly, our share price also rose by 8.9%. As we write, the Brazilian market in particular has seen strong gains over recent days, with some stocks rising by well over 20% in a week and the currency strengthening. We believe that this shows that regional stock markets were at an oversold level. However, with Argentina announcing an effective default on its debt and little political support in that country for the tough measures needed to comply with the zero fiscal deficit policy, we foresee further volatility ahead. The news on global demand continues to deteriorate, and despite central banks' attempts to stimulate demand by cutting interest rates, recovery is likely to be slow. As a result, we maintain a relatively cautious stance, favouring Mexico and Chile over Brazil and zero-weighted in Argentina. We have also not increased our effective gearing levels but have taken profits where we believe recent price moves may have been overdone. BRAZIL The Brazilian market rose by 6.5% in sterling terms over the month. Both the equity market and the currency were solid in the face of renewed volatility in Argentina and there were signs of renewed interest in cyclical stocks. Inflation data has been relatively stable, although showing signs of a slight currency-related uptick in October; an end is in sight for the energy crisis; the trade balance is showing a marked improvement, helped by the weaker Real, lower oil prices and subdued import demand; and with Argentina imploding, the markets began to anticipate an end to that problem too. However, in a sign that investment flows next year are unlikely to be strong, no bidders came forward for the sale of Copel, the integrated power utility of Parana state. We retain a small overweight in Brazil, with some cyclical names in the portfolio, including long steelmaker Gerdau, one of the market's top performers in October after a strong earnings report. MEXICO The Mexican market rose by 7.2% in October, making it the region's best performer. Again, we saw some strong rallies in cyclical names which the market perceived to have been oversold. The currency moved back to P9.2 against the dollar, strengthening 2.7% over the month, largely as a result of strong portfolio inflows. Year to date the peso has appreciated by 4% against the dollar. Corporate earnings were positive for several large names, particularly retailer Walmex, and economic data, while indicating a slowdown, led by manufacturing, have been generally within expectations. However the recent steep decline in the oil price has caused the Mexican government to announce a $330m budget cut in order to achieve this year's announced fiscal deficit target of 0.65% of GDP. It is positive to see that the government is determined to maintain its policy credibility in the face of weaker revenues. Disappointingly, there has been little outward sign of progress on the fiscal reform bill, with negotiations continuing and next year's budget prepared assuming no additional revenues. There were strong rumours during the month that the highly profitable soft drinks industry was being selected to bear the brunt of an increased excise tax. This caused a selloff in the prices of the soft drink bottlers. However, so far no concrete news has emerged, and the bottlers themselves, while lobbying strongly against the idea, cannot be certain that it will not go through. We have also seen concerns rising over the financial position of a number of leveraged Mexican industrial groups, including copper producer Grupo Mexico following the default of autoparts manufacturer San Luis last month and ongoing worries over the balance sheet of steel company Hylsamex. These companies are typically facing problems after a period of expansion, unable to service their debt due to lower revenues on commodity-type products and with the strong peso reducing the value of export income. So far the banks have assured us that there has been little deterioration in credit quality outside these groups. We maintain an overweight position in Mexico with a bias towards strong cash flow generative, domestically focused companies such as Telmex, Bancomer and Walmex. CHILE The Chilean market rose by 1.5% in sterling terms in October, despite continued currency weakness, with the Chilean peso falling by over 3% against the dollar. Economic data continued to be relatively poor, with industrial production numbers in September showing a slowdown from the better second quarter, and the growing trade deficit revealing the extent of the decline in exports given the slump in commodity prices and weak global demand. Unemployment rose to 10.1% in September, contributing to poor consumer confidence. Inflation for October fell, reflecting the decline in oil prices and fragile domestic demand despite the steep fall in the currency. We believe that the low level of domestic interest rates and government job creation schemes should have some success in maintaining activity, but that the key to Chile's growth problem is a recovery in global demand. Despite this slow progress, the majority of Chilean companies have solid balance sheets and should be able to withstand another year of subdued growth. We remain slightly overweight, with a bias towards companies whose earnings are less affected by the domestic economy. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell by 9.4% in sterling terms in October, the worst performer in the region. Despite a relief rally early in the month following legislative elections, plans for a major restructuring of both domestic and external debt alarmed foreign investors, and there were strong signals of political opposition to the zero deficit policy among the provincial governors. As a result, the government has struggled to obtain support for a crucial deal on revenue sharing with the provinces, which has hardly impressed the IMF or the US Treasury whose backing it needs for the debt restructuring deal to be accepted. The major rating agencies have already treated the proposal, by which bonds would be exchanged for debt with a fixed 7% interest rate, as a technical default. The domestic economy is now clearly imploding, with steep double-digit falls in industrial production, tax collection, consumer confidence and imports seen in recent months. We continue to believe that Argentina will find no easy solution to its problems and stay zero weighted in the market. ANDEAN MARKETS The smaller Andean markets reversed their third quarter outperformance and declined between 3.2% (Venezuela) and 6.3% (Colombia) for the month. Political uncertainty is high in Peru, which is impeding domestic business confidence, despite an improvement in economic data, led by the startup of the Antamina copper mine. Oil prices weighed on Colombia, despite lower interest rates and IMF support. Venezuela was much the same story, affected by weak oil prices, falling hopes of a rival offer to AES for CANTV, and controversial changes to the rules for the Macro Stabilization Fund which is designed to smooth out the swings in the oil price cycle. There is little in these markets to tempt us back at current prices. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/10/01 30/09/01 31/10/01 30/09/01 68.7p 64.7p 75.3p 72.2p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/10/01 30/09/01 Ordinary Shares 55.25p 50.75p Warrants 10.00p 10.50p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £32.9 million (£30.9 million). Market exposure 31/10/01 30/09/01 % % EQUITIES Brazil 26.3 27.9 Chile 10.3 10.9 Mexico 39.0 37.9 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 75.6 76.7 Net Current Assets 24.4 23.3 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £43.2 million (£41.1 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/10/01 30/09/01 31.4% 33.0% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.7 million equal to 91.1% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 5,223 16.0 Petrobras Brazil 2,881 8.8 Banco Itau Brazil 1,869 5.7 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,825 5.6 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,430 4.4 Ambev Brazil 1,385 4.3 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,377 4.2 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,326 4.1 Cemex Mexico 1,282 3.9 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,221 3.7 America Movil Mexico 1,176 3.6 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 870 2.7 Telecom de Chile Chile 814 2.5 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 764 2.3 Enersis Chile 743 2.3 Eletrobras Brazil 743 2.3 D & S Chile 732 2.2 Consorcio Ara Mexico 644 2.0 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 631 1.9 Gerdau Brazil 572 1.8 Femsa Mexico 566 1.7 Brasil Telecom Brazil 425 1.3 Unibanco Brazil 423 1.3 Banco Santander Chile 422 1.3 Grupo IMSA Mexico 389 1.2 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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