Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
8 January 2002
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2001
SUMMARY
December was another strong month for Latin American markets, as the regional
index (MSCI Latin American Free) rose by 8.6% in sterling terms. For the
fourth quarter of 2001, the index rose by 23%, thus closing down by only 1.8%
for the full year. This performance means that Latin American assets have done
extremely well in relative terms in a year when most global markets have been
hard hit and when Argentina finally imploded. In fact, the Argentine equity
market was extremely strong in December, as local buying pushed up asset
prices. Equities were seen as a safer asset than cash as fears of controls on
deposit withdrawals turned into reality and devaluation loomed. In some cases
local share classes traded at as much as a 40% premium to the ADR equivalent,
showing that foreign investors remained very wary of Argentina. The Brazilian
equity market was also in buoyant mood, and gains were seen throughout the
region with the exception of Venezuela.
Our performance was slightly behind the index, as our NAV rose by 7.8%. Our
lack of exposure to Argentina, which rose by almost 50% in sterling, accounted
for most of the underperformance.
Looking forward to 2002, we see a more positive outlook. There will doubtless
be further difficulties ahead for Argentina as the country faces the immense
social, political and economic challenges of life after convertibility. But we
expect that these should have a relatively limited impact on the rest of the
region. Growth has slowed in the whole continent and Argentina's neighbours,
Brazil and Chile, now have more competitive currencies, which will help their
balance of trade. The lower oil price should also benefit these two oil
importers and reduce inflation pressures. As external pressures subside, and
the domestic scenario becomes more stable, Brazil should be able to cut
interest rates from their present high levels. A gradual global recovery will
benefit the whole region, and Mexico in particular stands to gain from a
cyclical turnaround in the US, its largest trading partner. Low interest rates
worldwide and higher investor risk appetite combined with undemanding
valuations make us believe that Latin America should be a highly attractive
area for investment in the year ahead.
MEXICO
The Mexican market rose by less than the regional average, up by 5.9% in
sterling terms due to a weaker oil price and delays in approving the 2002
budget. However, stocks gained in absolute terms on the back of signs pointing
to a faster than expected US recovery and continued falls in domestic interest
rates. Sectors which had seemed threatened by potential tax increases, such as
beverages and telecoms, outperformed later in the month as such concerns
diminished. Inflation stayed benign and the currency remained strong. However,
negative news came in the form of a US$1.7bn trade deficit for November, due
to a sharp fall-off in both oil and non-oil exports. For 2002, the government
is assuming a US$15.5/barrel oil price for the Mexican mix, while the fiscal
deficit target remains at 0.65% of GDP. We made no significant changes to our
overweight position during the month.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market continued its strong performance, rising by 11.5% as
generally positive domestic newsflow dominated market sentiment despite the
increasing turmoil in Argentina. The currency continued to strengthen
significantly during the month. Better than expected results from energy
rationing and seasonally high rainfall allowed the government to reduce
electricity rationing in the south of Brazil. Monthly inflation moderated to
0.7% in November, from the high of 0.8% in October, and the trade account
closed the year with a US$2.6bn surplus. Despite cautious statements from the
Central Bank, expectations are that interest rates could be cut in the first
quarter. Government forecasts are that inflation should slow to 3.5% next year
due to lower fuel prices and a stable currency. We perceive that the equity
market is still attractively priced, and that lower interest rates will allow
a significant re-rating for Brazilian equities with the Argentine crisis
behind us. We are currently neutrally weighted in Brazil and looking to add
selectively on a stock by stock basis.
CHILE
The Chilean market underperformed the rest of the region in December with a
rise of 0.8% in sterling terms largely due to currency gains. We saw some
profit taking in stocks prompted by further unrest in Argentina where several
Chilean corporates have significant investments. Growth in Chile is still
slow, though there has been a welcome seasonal recovery in employment, and
inflation pressures are benign. This scenario has even prompted talk of a
further possible rate cut in early 2002. Although we have recently taken some
profits in retailer DyS after a strong run, we remain overweight Chile and
positive on the market.
ARGENTINA
So much press comment has been given to Argentina in recent weeks that we do
not propose to discuss recent events in much detail here. Suffice to say that
after further attempts by the government to stave off default, including a
massive local debt swap and restrictions on bank withdrawals, social unrest
reached fever pitch and President De La Rua and his Economy Minister Domingo
Cavallo were forced to resign. A political vacuum was evident as chaos
reigned, a new currency (the 'argentino') was introduced and default declared
on $150bn of external debt. Since the year end the country's new President has
acknowledged that devaluation is inevitable and is in the process of
presenting a new economic plan. The next twelve months will be extremely
difficult ones for Argentina and in particular for its citizens whose peso
salaries must fund dollar mortgages. Foreign companies are already expressing
outrage that dollar-linked utility contracts, fixed at the time of
privatisation, will be redenominated into pesos. It seems unlikely to us that
their clients will be able or willing to pay their bills in whatever currency.
We stay zero-weighted.
ANDEAN MARKETS
Colombia and Peru gained in December while Venezuela fell back due to lower
oil prices, rising social and political unrest and the abandonment of the
takeout bid for CANTV by AES. The higher country risk in Venezuela is likely
to depress returns in the short to medium term. Colombia has been a strong
performer in 2001 as interest rate cuts and share buybacks have driven the
market upwards. However, increasing political noise as we go into the
presidential election campaign, added to the market's low liquidity, makes us
less positive for 2002 and we maintain our zero weighting. There are improving
signs in Peru; while growth is very dependent on the mining sector, some
progress has been made on privatisation and other reforms and the government
is keeping to its IMF programme. We continue to monitor Peruvian stocks for
more attractive entry points.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/12/01 30/11/01 31/12/01 30/11/01
80.6p 74.8p 84.7p 80.1p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/12/01 30/11/01
Ordinary Shares 64.75p 63.75p
Warrants 12.75p 12.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.5 million (£35.8
million).
Market exposure
31/12/01 30/11/01
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 30.5 29.5
Chile 10.3 10.8
Mexico 38.7 38.4
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 79.5 78.7
Net Current Assets 20.5 21.3
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TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £48.8 million (£46.3 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/12/01 30/11/01
26.8% 29.4%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £35.3 million equal to 91.0% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 5,366 13.8
Petrobras Brazil 3,738 9.6
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,081 5.4
Banco Itau Brazil 1,999 5.2
Ambev Brazil 1,758 4.5
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,730 4.5
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,666 4.3
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,586 4.1
America Movil Mexico 1,526 3.9
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,337 3.4
Cemex Mexico 1,223 3.2
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,088 2.8
Telecom de Chile Chile 1,063 2.7
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 979 2.5
Itausa Inv Brazil 886 2.3
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 841 2.2
Consorcio Ara Mexico 838 2.2
Eletrobras Brazil 809 2.1
Enersis Chile 802 2.1
Pao de Acucar Brazil 756 1.9
D & S Chile 703 1.8
Copel Brazil 670 1.7
Brasil Telecom Brazil 658 1.7
Femsa Mexico 630 1.6
Gerdau Brazil 564 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year End 28 February 2002
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark
Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim
and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website
located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back
the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the
value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies
Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at
times be illiquid and/or volatile.