Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
17 May 2002
DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2002
SUMMARY
After a strong start to the year, with the MSCI Latin American Free Index up by
9.5% in sterling terms by the end of the first quarter, markets paused for
breath in April. Our benchmark index declined by 4.0% over the month, led by
further weakness in Argentina. Mexico saw its currency fall against the dollar,
as optimism waned over the speed of the US recovery; profit-taking also set in
on a number of key stocks. US and European markets also sold off in April, so
that the MSCI World Index declined by 5.7% over the month. Weakness in telecoms
shares was particularly pronounced with all the major global companies suffering
downgrades. However, the Emerging European markets outperformed, led by Russia
on higher oil prices, and continued strength in Asia helped the MSCI EMF post
only a moderate decline of 1.8% over the month, ahead of the Latin American
index.
Our performance in April was slightly behind the index; our NAV declined by
4.4%; this underperformance was largely due to our geared position in weak
markets and in particular the Mexican overweight, although this was partially
offset by good stock selection in Chile and our lack of exposure to Argentina.
However, our share price rose by 1.3% as the discount narrowed.
Since the month end we have seen further declines in Latin America, led by
Brazil where the markets have become increasingly nervous over the prospect of
an election victory by the opposition PT. While we think this is unlikely we
believe that this concern together with the lack of improvement we see in
Argentina will make the market nervous and volatile over the coming quarter, and
have begun to adopt a more defensive approach, particularly in Brazil.
MEXICO
The Mexican market declined by 4.2% in sterling terms, principally due to
currency weakness. Continued good news on falling domestic interest rates and
higher oil prices was countered by earnings disappointments for several market
heavy-weights including Telmex and Cemex, together with declining confidence in
the strength of the US recovery. Political tensions rose between Congress and
President Fox. The Central Bank eased monetary policy during the month
signalling that it believes inflation is under control, and the lower interest
environment has pushed the peso weaker against the US dollar. The currency
weakness should boost exporters hoping to gain from a US recovery. So far,
economic data for the first quarter has been subdued, though the pace of decline
has slowed from the end of last year. This is backed up by first quarter results
for the major companies and their expectations for the coming year who forecast
only a gradual improvement in demand. Official estimates now point to expected
GDP growth of 1.8% for 2002 based on stronger US consumption. Clearly, any signs
of a pullback in the recovery trend north of the border would be negative for
Mexico. However, due to its sound macro economic management we see Mexico as a
relatively solid story for the coming year, and maintain our overweight.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market registered a moderate decline of 3.8% in April, as higher
inflation expectations caused by a rise in oil prices prevented interest rates
from being cut, disappointing the market. Concerns also centred around poll data
showing little or no improvement in the standing of government candidate Jose
Serra and a rise in popularity for his left wing challenger Lula, who is
currently leading in the polls. The resignation of Argentine Economy Minister
Remes Lenicov and subsequent uncertainty also weighed on the Brazilian market.
However, current account and FDI data has been positive, while certain
manufacturing indices are showing a mild upturn.
The deterioration in investor sentiment in Brazil in recent weeks has been most
obvious in the fixed income market, where country risk spreads have widened
considerably, and to a lesser extent in the currency. As a result, we believe
that there is likely to be a period of some weakness in the equity market before
political uncertainty diminishes and interest rates can be cut again. Meanwhile
we have made some adjustments to our portfolio in order to position it more
defensively in a period of expected currency weakness, chiefly by adding
exporter Aracruz.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market again led the rest of the region down in April, falling by
14.6%. Continued disputes over policy between President Duhalde, Congress and
provincial governors, in particular the proposal to convert frozen bank deposits
into bonds, led to the resignation of respected economy minister Jorge Remes
Lenicov. Although a new minister has been appointed and a
14-point economic plan along the lines of IMF demands was approved by the
provincial governors, Argentina still faces huge uncertainty. The currency has
continued to trade lower and there is no resolution of the banking crisis. April
inflation was 10.4%, indicating the pressures building on consumer prices
following the devaluation. Last week Brazil's leading brewer, Ambev, confirmed
that it had agreed to acquire a controlling interest in Quilmes from the Bemberg
family, which will give it a leading position in the beer and soft drinks market
in Argentina. While signalling hope for the country's long term prospects, the
deal does not tempt us to change our longstanding zero weight in the equity
market.
CHILE
The Chilean market fell by 3.2% in April as the uncertainty in Argentina and
higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. Although copper prices have been stable,
domestic economic data has been somewhat less supportive of a recovery. The main
story in Chile last month was the sale of the Central Bank's 35% stake in Banco
Santiago to BSCH of Spain for US$675m, after a failed placement attempt. BSCH
now owns 79% of Banco Santiago and intends to merge it with Banco Santander to
create the leading local bank. We trimmed our weighting in the latter after
strong performance following the news of the merger, and are now slightly
underweight Chile.
ANDEAN MARKETS
Newsflow in the smaller markets in April was dominated by the failed coup
attempt in Venezuela. That market, unsettled by an oil production workers'
strike, initially leapt higher on the prospect of an end to the Chavez regime,
and then sold off as he was restored to power. Despite the turbulence, the
return over the month was 4.6%. While the currency is supported by the higher
oil price, and the government has made some more market-friendly gestures since
the coup, we believe that risks in Venezuela remain high and have sold our small
holding in CANTV. Peru
declined by 3.6% in April as bank Credicorp revealed a deteriorating credit
situation in its Bolivian subsidiary and the country's privatisation agenda
stalled. However, the rising price of gold has sustained the valuation of miner
Buenaventura even in the face of disappointing results. Colombia rose by 0.85%;
presidential challenger Alvaro Uribe maintains a strong lead in the polls and
the Central Bank confirmed a gradual recovery of internal demand. We have a zero
weight in these smaller markets, mostly due to a lack of liquidity and their
high risk nature, although we continue to monitor the region for interesting
opportunities.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/04/02 31/03/02 30/04/02 31/03/02
87.6p 91.6p 90.3p 93.4p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/02 31/03/02
Ordinary Shares 79.00p 78.00p
Warrants 17.25p 16.50p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.9 million (£43.8 million).
Market exposure
30/04/02 31/03/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 31.3 32.2
Chile 7.6 8.2
Mexico 41.6 41.9
Venezuela - 0.4
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 80.5 82.7
Net Current Assets 19.5 17.3
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £52.2 million (£54.3 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/04/02 31/03/02
24.6% 24.1%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £38.1 million equal to 90.6% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 5,790 13.8
Petrobras Brazil 4,195 10.0
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,487 5.9
Cemex Mexico 1,960 4.7
Banco Itau Brazil 1,932 4.6
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,814 4.3
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,683 4.0
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,617 3.8
Ambev Brazil 1,543 3.7
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,467 3.5
America Movil Mexico 1,459 3.5
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,239 2.9
Eletrobras Brazil 1,098 2.6
Femsa Mexico 1,056 2.5
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 991 2.4
Consorcio Ara Mexico 912 2.2
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 896 2.1
Itausa Inv Brazil 835 2.0
D & S Chile 815 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 811 1.9
Pao de Acucar Brazil 806 1.9
Bco Bradesco Brazil 729 1.7
Telecom de Chile Chile 721 1.7
Gpo Imsa Mexico 622 1.5
Brasil Telecom Brazil 616 1.5
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Annual General Meeting 28 June 2002
Subscription Date for Warrants 1 July 2002
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange