Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 12 April 2002 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2002 SUMMARY March was another good month for Latin American markets, as our benchmark, the MSCI Latin America Free Index, rose by 3.3% in sterling terms. This was largely driven by gains in Mexico, where the index rose by 9.8%, due to increased confidence in the fledgling US recovery, higher oil prices and lower inflation. The Brazilian market registered a small decline, largely due to political noise ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Argentina was weak, as the peso continued to depreciate and fresh IMF aid seemed only a distant prospect. The Latin American markets underperformed the global Emerging Markets Free index over the month, which was driven by strong gains in Russia, Turkey, Taiwan and Korea, but the region continued to outperform developed markets, as it has done for the entire first quarter. Our performance was strong again in March, when our NAV rose by 4.4%, ahead of the index. March's good performance was largely due to our overweight Mexico, underweight Argentina stance, and good stock selection in Brazil. Our share price rose by 10.2% over the month and the warrant price by 15.8%. For the first quarter our NAV rose by 13.6%, ahead of the index return of 9.5%. Looking forward, we expect the largely positive trend to continue. The global recovery, led by the United States, should provide Latin America with GDP growth of around 2% in aggregate this year, and next year's number should be higher. Commodity prices should stage a gradual recovery. The overall macro picture is sound, and foreign direct investment will continue to benefit the region. Although the crisis in Argentina is far from over, and could potentially deteriorate further, we believe that there are unlikely to be major repercussions for the rest of Latin America. In particular, Mexico is isolated by its sound public finances and increasing convergence with the United States. And despite the recent outperformance of the regional equity markets, valuations are still attractive: the region is trading at a price/earnings ratio of below 12x. MEXICO The Mexican market's buoyant performance in March can largely be traced to increasing signs of a recovery in the US, its largest trade partner. Higher imports and improving employment figures in the US have fuelled business confidence in Mexico, where the manufacturing sector is expecting an increase in orders. The rising trend in oil prices also benefits Mexico, increasing fiscal flexibility and helping the currency strengthen, which in turn keeps inflation subdued. Inflation was a benign 4.7% yoy in February, also reflecting relatively weak consumer demand in Mexico. Retail sales figures for January were lower than expected, as the consumer has been cautious. However, the picture looks brighter for the rest of the year. Interest rates are low in Mexico and should support a gradual recovery, while FDI continues strong; in recent weeks BSCH announced its acquisition of a further 15% in second-tier banking group, Bital, following the purchase of a stake by ING, and Whirlpool bought out its joint venture partner Vitno in their domestic appliance business. Many of our core holdings had a strong month, although there was some rotation; Cemex, Femsa and Coca-Cola Femsa all outperformed, as did Gissa and Walmex, but the telecoms stocks languished in common with their global peers. We remain overweight. BRAZIL The Brazilian market did much less well, down 1.9%, although the currency strengthened over the month. Most domestic economic newsflow was positive, with another 25bp cut in overnight interest rates (to 18.5%), good trade numbers, and signs of a recovery in the industrial sector. FDI has also held up, with the US$2bn placement of shares in CVRD successfully completed by the government in March and further issues, including the sale of shares in paper and pulp producer VCP, expected in the short term. The main factor of concern is the oil price, which if it remains high will put significant upwards pressure on inflation. Although the Central Bank has so far commented that this is a supply shock which should be isolated from core inflation there is no doubt that inflation is at the top end of the target range for this year, and that therefore the scope for interest rate cuts may be less than anticipated. Politics also cast a shadow over the equity market last month, with the husband of the PFL candidate's investigation for alleged corruption slowing down the legislative agenda, including the renewal of the CPMF tax. Although the official candidate, Jose Serra, has been rising in the polls, troubles in the coalition have so far prevented him from finding a running mate. Steelmaker Gerdau had another strong month on recovery hopes, while Itausa, CVRD (despite the global offering) and Bradesco all did well. Ambev also outperformed the market after a poor start to the year, as Molson announced its acquisition of Brazil's second-largest brewer, Kaiser, in partnership with Heineken. The deal implied a high valuation for the growth potential of the Brazilian market, and more rational competition going forward. Telecoms trailed behind, in common with their global peers, and Telesp Celular announced a Rs2.5bn (US$1.1bn) capital increase alongside poor Q4 2001 results. CHILE The Chilean market posted a gain of 2.8% in sterling terms, and the currency strengthened further, supported by rising copper prices. With the growth trajectory still fragile, and inflation benign, the Central Bank cut interest rates by a larger than expected 75bps, in order to shore up domestic demand. Recent months have seen deflation as a result of falling prices for foodstuffs and energy and weak internal demand, but March inflation figures broke the trend. We have yet to see convincing strength in the consumer sector, although our supermarket holding, DyS, has done well by increasing market share in an environment of weak growth. We remain neutral the Chilean market, where several major corporates are still exposed to Argentine risk. ARGENTINA The Argentine market was once again the worst performer in the region, falling by 20.9% over the month as the peso slipped in an environment of weak domestic confidence and poor liquidity. The government has responded by tightening restrictions on currency trading and by pursuing negotiations with the IMF over a future support package. Economic data such as tax collection is still in steep year-on-year decline and while consumer price inflation has been subdued to date, due to price controls and a less than fully-floating exchange rate, wholesale prices rose 11% month on month in February, indicating building pressure. Political and social tension remains high. We are zero weighted in Argentina. ANDEAN MARKETS The smaller markets saw a modestly positive performance in March, with Venezuela rising by 4.7%, as the currency was boosted by the oil price, and Peru and Colombia up by 2.8% and 3% respectively. Peru was affected by a bomb blast near the US Embassy on the eve of President Bush's visit, underlining Peru's vulnerability to terrorism, and need for US support for further progress on free trade agreements. However, growth figures have been promising, while still dominated by the external sector. Colombia benefited from higher oil prices and further interest rate cuts, while the US promised an increased package of military aid. The Venezuelan market gained despite political tension, particularly confrontation with the country's two largest unions. However, CANTV, in common with global telecoms stocks underperformed. Higher gold and copper prices allowed miners Buenaventura and SPCC to outperform. We remain underweight the smaller markets. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/03/02 28/02/02 31/03/02 28/02/02 91.6p 87.7p 93.4p 90.3p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/02 28/02/02 Ordinary Shares 78.00p 70.75p Warrants 16.50p 14.25p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £43.8 million (£41.9 million). Market exposure 31/03/02 28/02/02 % % EQUITIES Brazil 32.2 32.7 Chile 8.2 8.2 Mexico 41.9 39.4 Venezuela 0.4 0.5 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 82.7 80.8 Net Current Assets 17.3 19.2 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £54.3 million (£52.5 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/03/02 28/02/02 24.1% 25.3% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.3 million equal to 89.6% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex 6,325 14.1 Mexico Petrobras 4,619 10.3 Brazil Wal-Mart de Mexico 2,500 5.6 Mexico Banco Itau 2,141 4.8 Brazil G.F BBVA-Bancomer 2,047 4.5 Mexico Cemex 1,869 4.2 Mexico Ambev 1,707 3.8 Brazil Vale do Rio Doce 1,683 3.7 Brazil Grupo Televisa 1,611 3.6 Mexico America Movil 1,590 3.5 Brazil Grupo Modelo 1,559 3.4 Mexico Coca-Cola Femsa 1,244 2.8 Mexico Eletrobras 1,195 2.7 Brazil Femsa 1,065 2.4 Mexico Tele Norte Leste 1,008 2.2 Brazil Itausa Inv 987 2.2 Brazil Consorcio Ara 980 2.2 Mexico Kimberly-Clark de Mexico 966 2.1 Mexico Pao de Acucar 797 1.8 Brazil D & S 791 1.8 Chile Bco Bradesco 767 1.7 Brazil Gerdau 753 1.7 Brazil Telecom de Chile 735 1.6 Chile Copel 681 1.5 Brazil Gpo Imsa 651 1.4 Mexico FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Results Announced 22 April 2002 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/ or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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