Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
12 April 2002
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2002
SUMMARY
March was another good month for Latin American markets, as our benchmark, the
MSCI Latin America Free Index, rose by 3.3% in sterling terms. This was largely
driven by gains in Mexico, where the index rose by 9.8%, due to increased
confidence in the fledgling US recovery, higher oil prices and lower inflation.
The Brazilian market registered a small decline, largely due to political noise
ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Argentina was weak, as the peso
continued to depreciate and fresh IMF aid seemed only a distant prospect. The
Latin American markets underperformed the global Emerging Markets Free index
over the month, which was driven by strong gains in Russia, Turkey, Taiwan and
Korea, but the region continued to outperform developed markets, as it has done
for the entire first quarter.
Our performance was strong again in March, when our NAV rose by 4.4%, ahead of
the index. March's good performance was largely due to our overweight Mexico,
underweight Argentina stance, and good stock selection in Brazil. Our share
price rose by 10.2% over the month and the warrant price by 15.8%. For the first
quarter our NAV rose by 13.6%, ahead of the index return of 9.5%.
Looking forward, we expect the largely positive trend to continue. The global
recovery, led by the United States, should provide Latin America with GDP growth
of around 2% in aggregate this year, and next year's number should be higher.
Commodity prices should stage a gradual recovery. The overall macro picture is
sound, and foreign direct investment will continue to benefit the region.
Although the crisis in Argentina is far from over, and could potentially
deteriorate further, we believe that there are unlikely to be major
repercussions for the rest of Latin America. In particular, Mexico is isolated
by its sound public finances and increasing convergence with the United States.
And despite the recent outperformance of the regional equity markets, valuations
are still attractive: the region is trading at a price/earnings ratio of below
12x.
MEXICO
The Mexican market's buoyant performance in March can largely be traced to
increasing signs of a recovery in the US, its largest trade partner. Higher
imports and improving employment figures in the US have fuelled business
confidence in Mexico, where the manufacturing sector is expecting an increase in
orders. The rising trend in oil prices also benefits Mexico, increasing fiscal
flexibility and helping the currency strengthen, which in turn keeps inflation
subdued. Inflation was a benign 4.7% yoy in February, also reflecting relatively
weak consumer demand in Mexico. Retail sales figures for January were lower than
expected, as the consumer has been cautious. However, the picture looks brighter
for the rest of the year. Interest rates are low in Mexico and should support a
gradual recovery, while FDI continues strong; in recent weeks BSCH announced its
acquisition of a further 15% in second-tier banking group, Bital, following the
purchase of a stake by ING, and Whirlpool bought out its joint venture partner
Vitno in their domestic appliance business.
Many of our core holdings had a strong month, although there was some rotation;
Cemex, Femsa and Coca-Cola Femsa all outperformed, as did Gissa and Walmex, but
the telecoms stocks languished in common with their global peers. We remain
overweight.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market did much less well, down 1.9%, although the currency
strengthened over the month. Most domestic economic newsflow was positive, with
another 25bp cut in overnight interest rates (to 18.5%), good trade numbers, and
signs of a recovery in the industrial sector. FDI has also held up, with the
US$2bn placement of shares in CVRD successfully completed by the government in
March and further issues, including the sale of shares in paper and pulp
producer VCP, expected in the short term. The main factor of concern is the oil
price, which if it remains high will put significant upwards pressure on
inflation. Although the Central Bank has so far commented that this is a supply
shock which should be isolated from core inflation there is no doubt that
inflation is at the top end of the target range for this year, and that
therefore the scope for interest rate cuts may be less than anticipated.
Politics also cast a shadow over the equity market last month, with the husband
of the PFL candidate's investigation for alleged corruption slowing down the
legislative agenda, including the renewal of the CPMF tax. Although the official
candidate, Jose Serra, has been rising in the polls, troubles in the coalition
have so far prevented him from finding a running mate.
Steelmaker Gerdau had another strong month on recovery hopes, while Itausa, CVRD
(despite the global offering) and Bradesco all did well. Ambev also outperformed
the market after a poor start to the year, as Molson announced its acquisition
of Brazil's second-largest brewer, Kaiser, in partnership with Heineken. The
deal implied a high valuation for the growth potential of the Brazilian market,
and more rational competition going forward. Telecoms trailed behind, in common
with their global peers, and Telesp Celular announced a Rs2.5bn (US$1.1bn)
capital increase alongside poor Q4 2001 results.
CHILE
The Chilean market posted a gain of 2.8% in sterling terms, and the currency
strengthened further, supported by rising copper prices. With the growth
trajectory still fragile, and inflation benign, the Central Bank cut interest
rates by a larger than expected 75bps, in order to shore up domestic demand.
Recent months have seen deflation as a result of falling prices for foodstuffs
and energy and weak internal demand, but March inflation figures broke the
trend. We have yet to see convincing strength in the consumer sector, although
our supermarket holding, DyS, has done well by increasing market share in an
environment of weak growth. We remain neutral the Chilean market, where several
major corporates are still exposed to Argentine risk.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market was once again the worst performer in the region, falling
by 20.9% over the month as the peso slipped in an environment of weak domestic
confidence and poor liquidity. The government has responded by tightening
restrictions on currency trading and by pursuing negotiations with the IMF over
a future support package. Economic data such as tax collection is still in steep
year-on-year decline and while consumer price inflation has been subdued to
date, due to price controls and a less than fully-floating exchange rate,
wholesale prices rose 11% month on month in February, indicating building
pressure. Political and social tension remains high. We are zero weighted in
Argentina.
ANDEAN MARKETS
The smaller markets saw a modestly positive performance in March, with Venezuela
rising by 4.7%, as the currency was boosted by the oil price, and Peru and
Colombia up by 2.8% and 3% respectively. Peru was affected by a bomb blast near
the US Embassy on the eve of President Bush's visit, underlining Peru's
vulnerability to terrorism, and need for US support for further progress on free
trade agreements. However, growth figures have been promising, while still
dominated by the external sector. Colombia benefited from higher oil prices and
further interest rate cuts, while the US promised an increased package of
military aid. The Venezuelan market gained despite political tension,
particularly confrontation with the country's two largest unions. However,
CANTV, in common with global telecoms stocks underperformed. Higher gold and
copper prices allowed miners Buenaventura and SPCC to outperform. We remain
underweight the smaller markets.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/03/02 28/02/02 31/03/02 28/02/02
91.6p 87.7p 93.4p 90.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/02 28/02/02
Ordinary Shares 78.00p 70.75p
Warrants 16.50p 14.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £43.8 million (£41.9 million).
Market exposure
31/03/02 28/02/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 32.2 32.7
Chile 8.2 8.2
Mexico 41.9 39.4
Venezuela 0.4 0.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 82.7 80.8
Net Current Assets 17.3 19.2
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £54.3 million (£52.5 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/03/02 28/02/02
24.1% 25.3%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.3 million equal to 89.6% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex 6,325 14.1
Mexico
Petrobras 4,619 10.3
Brazil
Wal-Mart de Mexico 2,500 5.6
Mexico
Banco Itau 2,141 4.8
Brazil
G.F BBVA-Bancomer 2,047 4.5
Mexico
Cemex 1,869 4.2
Mexico
Ambev 1,707 3.8
Brazil
Vale do Rio Doce 1,683 3.7
Brazil
Grupo Televisa 1,611 3.6
Mexico
America Movil 1,590 3.5
Brazil
Grupo Modelo 1,559 3.4
Mexico
Coca-Cola Femsa 1,244 2.8
Mexico
Eletrobras 1,195 2.7
Brazil
Femsa 1,065 2.4
Mexico
Tele Norte Leste 1,008 2.2
Brazil
Itausa Inv 987 2.2
Brazil
Consorcio Ara 980 2.2
Mexico
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico 966 2.1
Mexico
Pao de Acucar 797 1.8
Brazil
D & S 791 1.8
Chile
Bco Bradesco 767 1.7
Brazil
Gerdau 753 1.7
Brazil
Telecom de Chile 735 1.6
Chile
Copel 681 1.5
Brazil
Gpo Imsa 651 1.4
Mexico
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Results Announced 22 April 2002
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange