Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
18 June 2002
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2002
SUMMARY
The Latin American region was down sharply in May, led again by Argentina, but
also by Brazilian election concerns and Mexican peso weakness. DLACT
outperformed the MSCI Latin American Free Index, down 7.9% versus a fall in the
index of 8.5% in sterling terms. Year to date the Trust is up against the index,
+0.1% versus -3.8%. The month of May saw most of the Latin currencies weaken
substantially, led by the Argentine peso, the Venezuelan bolivar and the
Brazilian real. We are currently invested in three countries, Brazil, Mexico and
Chile, with our largest overweight in Mexico. Major portfolio activity in May
included reducing our exposure to the electricity sector in Brazil and adding to
the dollar exporters, Aracruz and Embraer, due to our increasingly defensive
posture toward Brazil. Both of these new names added positively to performance
in May. Our outperformance was aided primarily by stock selection, but also from
an absence of exposure to Argentina, which was down by 30% for the month. In
Brazil, we benefited from an overweight position in selective exporters such as
CVRD, the recent additions mentioned above, and from having an underweight
position in telecommunications companies. We were also helped by stock selection
in Mexico, in particular an overweight in beverage companies Coca-Cola Femsa and
Grupo Modelo, and an underweight position in America Movil.
MEXICO
The Mexican equity market has corrected significantly over the past two months.
The major trigger for the sell-off has been the combined weakness of the U.S.
dollar and its equity market, which has fuelled downward pressure on the peso.
The recent period has seen a significant outflow of funds from Mexico, as
investors worry about the threat of rising interest rates (which have been at a
10 year low) and rising inflation, which eats into real wage growth. The
disappointing Q1 GDP report also dampened enthusiasm, however we are starting to
see better economic data as far as exports and employment is concerned. The
Mexican economy appears to be beyond its trough and is now showing some
tentative signs of recovery. Industrial production figures appear to be
strengthening which should flow through to higher earnings in the second
quarter. Global economic strengthening should also help Mexico, and once the U.S
begins to recover, Mexico should be the prime Latin beneficiary.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market also fell over 8% in May, as the currency continued to
weaken, driven by heightened nervousness showing the Worker party candidate Lula
stretching his lead in the polls. The Central Bank left rates unchanged while
trade/current account data were supportive and growth mildly disappointing. The
combination of political risk, increasingly high debt levels and low growth have
led to greater vulnerability and investor nervousness.
The near term risk to monitor in Brazil is the fall out from last month's
requirement for domestic fixed income funds to mark to market their assets
(largely government bonds) which caused several large pension funds to report
large losses. These losses, and the increased volatility resulting from that
change is causing short-term pressure on the currency and the public debt
market. On the political front, Jose Serra's candidacy is likely to gain
momentum in the month of June, as his TV advertising time swings into full gear.
On the economic front, we will watch closely signals from the Central Bank for a
rate cut, hopefully driven by the decline in international oil prices.
CHILE
Chile closed the month down 6.6% in sterling, as the currency drifted weaker,
local economic data remained poor and Argentine-exposed index heavyweights
continued to suffer. The Central Bank has reduced rates aggressively this year,
however the positive effect has not filtered down to an improvement in
expectations for GDP or earnings. Our holdings in Entel, the Chilean banks and
certain smaller companies held ground and were a net positive contributor in
May. Our exposure to the electricity sector, the major telecommunications
company, CTC, and our overweight position in the retailer DyS detracted from
performance.
ARGENTINA
Argentina was by far the region's worst performer, down 30% in sterling as the
currency continued to weaken in the absence of any coherent fiscal or monetary
policy. Tension between the Duhalde government and the Central Bank resurfaced
in May, and a sustainable fiscal agreement with the provinces remains doubtful.
A near term agreement with the IMF is now essential to keeping the country from
spinning out of control.
OUTLOOK
Our primary thesis for Mexico remains unchanged: We believe the U.S. economy
will recover in the second half of the year, which should underpin a strong
rebound in the Mexican economy. Rising GDP growth coupled with historic low
interest rates should make for renewed enthusiasm spilling over into renewed
appetite for Mexican equities. Our equity strategy remains tilted toward an
overweight position in Mexico, a defensive posture toward Brazil and Chile, and
zero weighting in Argentina. We currently have no exposure to the Andean pact
countries of Peru, Colombia and Venezuela due to the deteriorating political and
macroeconomic situation, a lack of liquidity and paucity of companies, which
meet our investment criteria. We will selectively look to add in this region if
the situation improves.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/05/02 30/04/02 31/05/02 30/04/02
80.7p 87.6p 84.8p 90.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/05/02 30/04/02
Ordinary Shares 70.50p 79.00p
Warrants 16.25p 17.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.6 million (£41.9 million).
Market exposure
31/05/02 30/04/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 32.0 31.3
Chile 7.5 7.6
Mexico 40.6 41.6
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 80.1 80.5
Net Current Assets 19.9 19.5
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TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £48.8 million (£52.2 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/05/02 30/04/02
26.6% 24.6%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £35.0 million equal to 89.5% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 5,304 13.6
Petrobras Brazil 4,044 10.3
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,200 5.6
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,139 5.5
Cemex Mexico 1,849 4.7
Banco Itau Brazil 1,665 4.3
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,570 4.0
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,484 3.8
Ambev Brazil 1,374 3.5
America Movil Mexico 1,363 3.5
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,356 3.5
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,133 2.9
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 990 2.5
Femsa Mexico 928 2.4
Consorcio Ara Mexico 852 2.2
Gerdau Brazil 743 1.9
Gpo Imsa Mexico 732 1.9
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 725 1.9
Pao de Acucar Brazil 716 1.8
D & S Chile 714 1.8
Itausa Inv Brazil 699 1.8
Telecom de Chile Chile 664 1.7
Bco Bradesco Brazil 642 1.6
Eletrobras Brazil 552 1.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 541 1.4
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Annual General Meeting 28 June 2002
Subscription Date for Warrants 1 July 2002
Final Dividend Pay Date (subject to Shareholder approval) 1 July 2002
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
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