Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 18 June 2002 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2002 SUMMARY The Latin American region was down sharply in May, led again by Argentina, but also by Brazilian election concerns and Mexican peso weakness. DLACT outperformed the MSCI Latin American Free Index, down 7.9% versus a fall in the index of 8.5% in sterling terms. Year to date the Trust is up against the index, +0.1% versus -3.8%. The month of May saw most of the Latin currencies weaken substantially, led by the Argentine peso, the Venezuelan bolivar and the Brazilian real. We are currently invested in three countries, Brazil, Mexico and Chile, with our largest overweight in Mexico. Major portfolio activity in May included reducing our exposure to the electricity sector in Brazil and adding to the dollar exporters, Aracruz and Embraer, due to our increasingly defensive posture toward Brazil. Both of these new names added positively to performance in May. Our outperformance was aided primarily by stock selection, but also from an absence of exposure to Argentina, which was down by 30% for the month. In Brazil, we benefited from an overweight position in selective exporters such as CVRD, the recent additions mentioned above, and from having an underweight position in telecommunications companies. We were also helped by stock selection in Mexico, in particular an overweight in beverage companies Coca-Cola Femsa and Grupo Modelo, and an underweight position in America Movil. MEXICO The Mexican equity market has corrected significantly over the past two months. The major trigger for the sell-off has been the combined weakness of the U.S. dollar and its equity market, which has fuelled downward pressure on the peso. The recent period has seen a significant outflow of funds from Mexico, as investors worry about the threat of rising interest rates (which have been at a 10 year low) and rising inflation, which eats into real wage growth. The disappointing Q1 GDP report also dampened enthusiasm, however we are starting to see better economic data as far as exports and employment is concerned. The Mexican economy appears to be beyond its trough and is now showing some tentative signs of recovery. Industrial production figures appear to be strengthening which should flow through to higher earnings in the second quarter. Global economic strengthening should also help Mexico, and once the U.S begins to recover, Mexico should be the prime Latin beneficiary. BRAZIL The Brazilian market also fell over 8% in May, as the currency continued to weaken, driven by heightened nervousness showing the Worker party candidate Lula stretching his lead in the polls. The Central Bank left rates unchanged while trade/current account data were supportive and growth mildly disappointing. The combination of political risk, increasingly high debt levels and low growth have led to greater vulnerability and investor nervousness. The near term risk to monitor in Brazil is the fall out from last month's requirement for domestic fixed income funds to mark to market their assets (largely government bonds) which caused several large pension funds to report large losses. These losses, and the increased volatility resulting from that change is causing short-term pressure on the currency and the public debt market. On the political front, Jose Serra's candidacy is likely to gain momentum in the month of June, as his TV advertising time swings into full gear. On the economic front, we will watch closely signals from the Central Bank for a rate cut, hopefully driven by the decline in international oil prices. CHILE Chile closed the month down 6.6% in sterling, as the currency drifted weaker, local economic data remained poor and Argentine-exposed index heavyweights continued to suffer. The Central Bank has reduced rates aggressively this year, however the positive effect has not filtered down to an improvement in expectations for GDP or earnings. Our holdings in Entel, the Chilean banks and certain smaller companies held ground and were a net positive contributor in May. Our exposure to the electricity sector, the major telecommunications company, CTC, and our overweight position in the retailer DyS detracted from performance. ARGENTINA Argentina was by far the region's worst performer, down 30% in sterling as the currency continued to weaken in the absence of any coherent fiscal or monetary policy. Tension between the Duhalde government and the Central Bank resurfaced in May, and a sustainable fiscal agreement with the provinces remains doubtful. A near term agreement with the IMF is now essential to keeping the country from spinning out of control. OUTLOOK Our primary thesis for Mexico remains unchanged: We believe the U.S. economy will recover in the second half of the year, which should underpin a strong rebound in the Mexican economy. Rising GDP growth coupled with historic low interest rates should make for renewed enthusiasm spilling over into renewed appetite for Mexican equities. Our equity strategy remains tilted toward an overweight position in Mexico, a defensive posture toward Brazil and Chile, and zero weighting in Argentina. We currently have no exposure to the Andean pact countries of Peru, Colombia and Venezuela due to the deteriorating political and macroeconomic situation, a lack of liquidity and paucity of companies, which meet our investment criteria. We will selectively look to add in this region if the situation improves. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/05/02 30/04/02 31/05/02 30/04/02 80.7p 87.6p 84.8p 90.3p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/05/02 30/04/02 Ordinary Shares 70.50p 79.00p Warrants 16.25p 17.25p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.6 million (£41.9 million). Market exposure 31/05/02 30/04/02 % % EQUITIES Brazil 32.0 31.3 Chile 7.5 7.6 Mexico 40.6 41.6 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 80.1 80.5 Net Current Assets 19.9 19.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £48.8 million (£52.2 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/05/02 30/04/02 26.6% 24.6% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £35.0 million equal to 89.5% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 5,304 13.6 Petrobras Brazil 4,044 10.3 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,200 5.6 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,139 5.5 Cemex Mexico 1,849 4.7 Banco Itau Brazil 1,665 4.3 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,570 4.0 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,484 3.8 Ambev Brazil 1,374 3.5 America Movil Mexico 1,363 3.5 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,356 3.5 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,133 2.9 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 990 2.5 Femsa Mexico 928 2.4 Consorcio Ara Mexico 852 2.2 Gerdau Brazil 743 1.9 Gpo Imsa Mexico 732 1.9 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 725 1.9 Pao de Acucar Brazil 716 1.8 D & S Chile 714 1.8 Itausa Inv Brazil 699 1.8 Telecom de Chile Chile 664 1.7 Bco Bradesco Brazil 642 1.6 Eletrobras Brazil 552 1.4 Brasil Telecom Brazil 541 1.4 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Annual General Meeting 28 June 2002 Subscription Date for Warrants 1 July 2002 Final Dividend Pay Date (subject to Shareholder approval) 1 July 2002 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/ or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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