Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
15 July 2002
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2002
SUMMARY
Latin American markets fell sharply in June, led by growing concerns about
Brazil's upcoming elections and continued currency weakness throughout the
region. We underperformed the index slightly in the month, with the net asset
value falling 17.8% in sterling versus the index's drop of 17.1%. Excluding the
effect of gearing, the fund actually outperformed the index in the period,
declining 16.7% on an equity only basis.
The fund's focus remains Mexico, Brazil, and Chile, all of which suffered on
both the equity and currency fronts. Much of this move reflects rising equity
risk premia globally and the region's tie to the U.S. dollar, which weakened
substantially in June. Of the three markets, Brazil was hardest hit, reflecting
concerns about the sustainability of its debt profile and worries over upcoming
elections. The fund's underweight position in Brazil in the month supported
performance, as did the overweight position and stock selection in Mexico.
Relative to the index, Chile was essentially neutral in the period. The lack of
Argentina hurt the fund's performance, as the market stopped falling in the face
of improving political news and the expectation of a reduction in Perez
Companc's balance sheet risk.
MEXICO
The story in Mexico remains much as it was in May, with weakness in the dollar
and U.S. equities generating concerns about Mexico's own prospects and causing
additional depreciation of the peso and additional flight from stocks on the
part of global investors. Headline growth figures continue to show weakness in
the overall economy, although some turn seems to have occurred in the industrial
sector. Inflation remains fairly well behaved, with the latest figures
suggesting a sub-5% outcome for the year, still supporting the trend of real
wage gains in many sectors. However, the recent peso slide has the market
nervous about the impact of pass through on third quarter figures.
The fund's significant overweight position in Mexico reflects our confidence in
the financial strength and defensiveness of several large Mexican companies,
most notably in the consumer sector. Moreover, valuations in Mexico,
particularly on a risk-adjusted basis, remain the most attractive in the region,
in our view, in the current volatile environment. Mexico is also the economy in
Latin America most geared to growth in the U.S., suggesting significant upside
at the time of an eventual turn in the economic backdrop and markets there.
BRAZIL
Deteriorating market sentiment took its toll on Brazil in June, as political
concerns and questions about debt dynamics converged to cause selling nearing
panic proportions. Spreads for the C Bond, the benchmark for Brazilian risk,
widened to 1700 bps over U.S. Treasuries in the second quarter, from 700 bps
over in March. The sell-off was exacerbated by confusion in the market about the
central bank's foreign exchange policy and a change in the mark-to-market rules
for local fixed income funds. Adding fuel to the fire, both Moody's and S&P
downgraded or lowered the outlook on Brazilian sovereign debt. By the end of the
month, local yields had risen to levels not seen since the crisis that forced
Brazil to devalue at the beginning of 1999. In the equity market, the selling
was also significant, though not to the same extent.
A major driver behind the market's worries is the upcoming presidential
election. The failure of the market's preferred candidate, Jose Serra, to gain
ground on front-runner and populist candidate, Lula, led to concerns about what
Lula might do about Brazil's growing debt burden. The risk that a Lula
administration might seek to renegotiate or default on sovereign debt became the
market's primary obsession, despite assurance that the candidate no longer
supported such measures.
The Brazilian government and central bank responded to the market's sell-off by
raising bank reserve requirements, lowering the foreign reserve floor and
announcing the intention of drawing on the $US 10 billion in multilateral
support available to it. The Central Bank also relaxed its inflation target,
paving the way for an eventual rate cut, which should support a more favourable
trend in the markets.
Our medium term view on Brazil remains positive. We believe government's
presidential candidate, Serra, will ultimately prevail, and that the new
government will be able to manage the country's debt dynamics. Inflation, FDI,
and the trade balance shave shown favourable trends which suggest the situation
is manageable, provided market pressures subside to allow for declining interest
rates and more robust growth.
CHILE
The Chilean market failed to live up to its historical safe haven status in the
month, with most of the news on the economic front providing little hope for a
recovery in the near future. Unemployment continues to rise, consumer spending
continues to disappoint, and commodities, though improving, are still not enough
to turn the tide. Not helping matters was a highly publicised labour dispute at
CTC, one of the most visible stocks for foreign investors. Furthermore, Chile's
two largest electric utilities, which represent a large share of the market,
came under renewed selling pressure due to currency and regulatory concerns
regarding their holdings in Brazil and Argentina. It is hoped that the central
bank's recent rate cuts will stimulate demand in the coming months and provide
support for equities.
ARGENTINA
Argentina's economic woes continue, with domestic demand still posting
staggering declines and a currency that is poised for additional weakness. The
devaluation has still not shown its effect on inflation to the full extent we
expect, a process hampered by the total lack of pricing power. On the positive
side, however, the market was pleasantly surprised to learn that President
Duhalde supports early elections in the beginning of 2003. Furthermore, the IMF
has not ruled out additional support for Argentina, should needed reforms come
through. We remain skeptical about the prospects for such support, however.
On the company front, Perez Companc appears to be making progress in improving
it balance sheet structure. The company may also receive some relief from the
government, which has suggested it would relax recently imposed restrictions on
exports. These developments helped the stock rebound in the month, supporting
the market's overall performance.
OUTLOOK
We remain optimistic on the eventual turnaround in Latin American equities, to
be led first by Mexico, on the basis of solid company fundamentals, attractive
valuations, low indebtedness, and relative fiscal discipline. Furthermore, we
believe the defensiveness of many large companies in Mexico turns to 'growth at
an attractive price' once the U.S. economy and sentiment begin a real
turnaround.
With respect to Brazil, we foresee continued volatility through the presidential
election period, which will likely go to a second round at the end of October.
Thus far, financial market pressures have reinforced, not undermined, policy
discipline in both Mexico and Brazil, and we expect the authorities to keep
their fiscal houses in order. We will likely remain market weight in Brazil,
with a continued tilt toward the defensive names until more clarity appears on
the election front.
In Chile, we are mindful of the exposure of various Chilean companies to
Argentina and Brazil, and while the economic fundamentals appear solid, growth
appears to be stymied, depressing Chilean consumer plays. In addition, the lack
of liquidity in the Chilean market may keep that market at a disadvantage to
Mexico and Brazil, where funds are apt to flow when sentiment improves in the
region.
We continue to see little reason to own Argentine stocks. Our expectations for
continued currency weakness, accelerating inflation, and insufficient reform by
Argentine lawmakers do not bode well for investments in equities. Similarly, the
Andean region holds few prospects in the near term, with the sole exception of
the Peruvian gold company Buenaventura, which has significant proven reserves
and is one of the world's lowest cost producers.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/06/02 31/05/02 30/06/02 31/05/02
66.3p 80.7p 73.4p 84.8p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/06/02 31/05/02
Ordinary Shares 57.50p 70.50p
Warrants 13.75p 16.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.7 million (£38.6 million).
Market exposure
30/06/02 31/05/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 29.2 32.0
Chile 7.7 7.5
Mexico 41.3 40.6
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 78.2 80.1
Net Current Assets 21.8 19.9
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £41.5 million (£48.8 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/06/02 31/05/02
31.1% 26.6%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.3 million equal to 90.3% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 4,693 14.4
Petrobras Brazil 3,124 9.6
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,964 6.0
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,870 5.8
Cemex Mexico 1,592 4.9
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,452 4.5
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,366 4.2
Banco Itau Brazil 1,329 4.1
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,209 3.7
Ambev Brazil 1,110 3.4
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,039 3.2
America Movil Mexico 1,002 3.1
Femsa Mexico 866 2.7
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 759 2.3
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 621 1.9
D & S Chile 620 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 609 1.9
Consorcio Ara Mexico 605 1.9
Pao de Acucar Brazil 601 1.9
Telecom de Chile Chile 570 1.8
Itausa Inv Brazil 555 1.7
Bco Bradesco Brazil 468 1.4
Gpo Imsa Mexico 464 1.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 429 1.3
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 413 1.3
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Half Year 31 August 2002
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange