Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
20 September 2002
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2002
SUMMARY
The MSCI Latin American free index gained 10.2% in sterling in August, driven
primarily by a 24.0% surge in the Brazilian market. The Trust's NAV gained 8.3%,
underperforming the index due to its overweight position in Mexico (versus
Brazil) and its more defensive bias in Brazilian holdings. The Argentine index
was up 4.8% for the month, followed by Mexico +3.5%, while Chile was flat. For
the year to date through August, the Trust's NAV is down 22.6% versus an index
fall of 27.6%. The share price rose 10.9% for the month but has fallen 21.2%
year to date.
Brazil
Brazil recovered strongly from its July lows after announcing a better than
expected 15 month standby agreement with the IMF and a total package amounting
to $US30 billion. In addition, the government's presidential candidate, Jose
Serra, significantly narrowed the spread with the other two candidates following
one week of the official TV campaign. While continuing in third place, Serra's
prospects are looking more positive and the political mood has improved
dramatically since the end of July. The hysteria surrounding renewal of trade
lines abated in August, as the Minister of Finance and Central Bank President
made the rounds in New York to convince the major commercial banks to leave
lines in place. In addition, the market was bolstered by surprisingly good trade
and current account figures, although a closer look indicates the trade balance
has been strengthened largely due to a fall-off in imports. The Central Bank
kept interest rates stable but moved to an easing bias. For the month, the
Brazilian real strengthened over 8% after the July lows.
Stock selection was hampered in August by the Trust's more conservative
holdings, including overweight positions in CVRD and Aracruz, which
significantly underperformed the market, and its below index weight in
Petrobras, which surged after the July downturn. In addition, selective cellular
and electricity sector stocks, which are not owned due to their excessive
leverage and poor profitability outlook, largely outperformed the index during
August. The manager continues to believe a neutral weighting in Brazil with a
bias toward exporters is warranted until the uncertainty surrounding the
elections and concern over the debt overhang abates.
Mexico
The Mexican market was overshadowed by events in Brazil but was supported by
neutral US markets, and positive second quarter GDP and fiscal numbers, as well
as some signs that electricity reforms may be back on the political agenda.
President Fox sent an electricity reform bill to the Mexican congress which
would allow for private companies to build power plants and compete to sell
energy. While there has been little progress on structural reform due to
intransigence in congress, expectations are rising that Fox will be more
assertive in the current negotiating session. Corporate news was uneventful,
with the exception of HSBC's offer to buy one of the last Mexican controlled
banks, BITAL, for a sum of $US 1.1 billion. This purchase further signals the
consolidation of the banking sector. Mexican internal demand indicators remain
weak with the June report for industrial production continuing to decline.
Second quarter fiscal accounts have improved due to better oil related revenue
and the currency appears to have stabilized at 9.9 to the dollar, after
depreciating more than 8% for the year.
The Trust remains overweight Mexico, at 56% versus the index of 49%, due to the
manager's conviction that Mexican companies' operating earnings are beginning to
show a positive trend and the absence of debt and overall health of the balance
sheets are superior to other opportunities elsewhere. In particular, the Trust's
overweight positions in quality companies such as Walmex, Cemex, Coca Cola Femsa
and Kimberly Clark hurt performance for the month as did underweight positions
in America Movil, which rallied due to its Brazilian operations, and Telmex, due
to the 15% holding company restrictions.
Chile
The Chilean market lagged the region once again. The currency has remained
stable, down 0.3% though impacted by the weakening commodity prices as copper
prices stayed low, oil prices high (Chile is a net oil importer) and doubts
about the pace of global economic recovery remained. Domestic economic
indicators continued to surprise on the downside, and the Central Bank responded
by shaving a further 25 bps off target interest rates to an all-time low of 3%.
The equity market shrugged off the move, given the anaemic level of economic
activity, lack of volume and problems for the Chilean companies operating in
Brazil and Argentina.
In August, the Trust's manager pared back several of the illiquid Chilean
holdings in favour of more liquid, quality names without exposure to the adverse
Argentine and Brazilian economic cycles. The Trust's weighting in the country is
now markedly underweight the index on the basis that better investment
alternatives can be found elsewhere.
Argentina
The market rose during the month, as the currency remained stable and confidence
was boosted by ongoing signs that domestic economic activity may have bottomed
and that an IMF deal may be on the horizon. The political environment, however,
remains complicated with populist or left-of-centre candidates leading the
presidential election race. The Trust remains zero weighted in Argentina based
on a lack of identifiable names which meet the manager's investment criteria.
PERU
A new position in gold and silver mining company Minas Buenaventura was
established during the month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/08/02 31/07/02 31/08/02 31/07/02
62.4p 57.6p 70.4p 66.6p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/08/02 31/07/02
Ordinary Shares 51.00p 46.00p
Warrants 9.50p 10.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £29.8 million (£27.6 million).
Market exposure
31/08/02 31/07/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 40.7 27.8
Chile 2.7 9.6
Mexico 46.8 49.8
Peru 1.5 -
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 91.7 87.2
Net Current Assets 8.3 12.8
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £33.1 million (£30.8 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/08/02 31/07/02
10.8% 11.6%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.7 million equal to 97.9% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,505 11.6
Petrobras Brazil 2,552 8.4
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,370 7.8
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,159 7.1
Cemex Mexico 1,554 5.1
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,439 4.7
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,390 4.6
Banco Itau Brazil 1,381 4.6
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,188 3.9
Ambev Brazil 1,182 3.9
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,165 3.8
America Movil Mexico 1,155 3.8
Gerdau Brazil 984 3.2
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 969 3.2
Bco Bradesco Brazil 931 3.1
Brasil Telecom Brazil 924 3.0
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 866 2.9
Femsa Mexico 820 2.7
Pao de Acucar Brazil 679 2.2
Embraer Brazil 504 1.7
Minas Buenaventura Peru 502 1.7
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 474 1.6
Telecom de Chile Chile 397 1.3
Gissa Mexico 318 1.0
GPO Imsa Mexico 304 1.0
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Half Year 31 August 2002
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange