Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
19 August 2002
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2002
SUMMARY
The Latin American equity market fell sharply in July, driven by weak global
markets and its own homegrown concerns. Initially led by the U.S, with its
continued valuation and corporate accounting concerns, investors became
increasingly alarmed by Brazil, where continued weak poll results for the
government candidate drove the currency weaker, country risk higher and the
market down by nearly 30%. With major exchanges touching levels not seen since
the 1997 Asian crisis, the MSCI Latin index declined by 17.6% in sterling.
Against this backdrop, the Trust outperformed again this month, widening the
margin against the MSCI year to date. We have repaid $10 million of our
borrowings but still have $5 million drawn down. We are holding this in cash at
the moment but believe we may get a good opportunity to use it in the coming
months.
As in June, Brazil was once again the dominant story in the region as it saw its
equity market slide to new lows. The market sold off on a number of factors
including a continued rise in investor concern over the possibility of a Lula
presidency and an overall rise in risk aversion. The global credit crunch began
to affect Brazilian companies looking to roll over trade lines and the weakening
real exacerbated the government's debt ratios as a large portion of the domestic
debt is U.S. dollar linked. The Republic's C Bond, the primary indicator of
Brazil's sovereign risk, widened to nearly 2,000 basis points above
corresponding U.S. Treasury bonds. The Brazilian Central Bank and the government
responded with a series of measures including tapping into IMF and World Bank
funds, lowering the foreign reserves floor and raising bank reserve
requirements.
The real continued to weaken along with most regional currencies, declining
nearly 9% for the month in sterling. The currency has now fallen over 30% year
to date. In the continuing effort to keep inflation under control, the Central
Bank left rates unchanged at the July COPOM meeting but has signalled a downward
bias, indicating that aside from short-term financial market concerns,
fundamentals were suggestive of lower rates. The effects of Brazil's weakness
are also being felt in Chile. The effect, for very different reasons, has been
muted in Mexico and Argentina.
Nonetheless, Mexican shares fell nearly 5% in sterling, dragged down by concern
that a sluggish U.S. economy will depress earnings and dampen consumer spending.
The peso, amid a weaker dollar and Brazil concerns, approached the psychological
barrier of MX$10/US$ and country spreads widened 100 bps as domestic rates
reached their highest level since February. GDP growth was revised, to reflect
the weaker environment, from 2.8% to 2%. Continued investor concerns over the US
will likely weigh on the market until stronger signs of growth emerge.
The portfolio continued to perform well, outperforming the index for the month
and year to date. Performance was driven primarily by focused stock selection in
both Brazil and Mexico. The number of companies owned in Brazil was reduced, and
the Trust was geared toward a more defensive and cautious position with a
preference for dollar exporters and companies with little or no dollar debt.
Although the Trust's holdings posted negative absolute returns, relative
performance fared well.
The next largest contribution to performance came from our overweight position
in Mexico. More defensive names such as Coke Femsa and WalMex were top
contributors to performance. The move to a larger overweight in Mexico vis a vis
Brazil worked in the Trust's favour as the market significantly outperformed
Brazil.
In contrast to previous months, the Trust's zero weight in Argentina detracted
from performance as the Merval significantly outperformed the benchmark.
Regardless, the situation remains precarious and we continue to favour avoiding
the market. Stocks in Chile, where the Trust has a significant weighting, also
outperformed the index, down only 5% in sterling. The Trust's stock selection
was less helpful in Chile, as our holdings tend to be somewhat fragmented in
less liquid names.
From a sector perspective, the portfolio's defensive tilt toward consumer
staples and significant overweight in the area has worked well, mitigating
weakness in the telecommunications sector. In addition to consumer staples the
portfolio is overweight materials and underweight energy.
Our conclusions looking forward remain broadly in line with the investment
themes of the past month.
MEXICO
The Mexican economy continues to tread water. Recent trade and employment data
suggests that the recovery is lukewarm with consumers turning more timid as
contagion from US markets continues to depress sentiment. However, if inflation
continues to remain low, which is the current indication, and the current
account deficit remains at current levels, the peso and interest rates should
remain in the targeted range. This scenario offers more confidence than the
precarious nature of the Brazilian market. Consequently, we are likely to
maintain our overweight in Mexico vs. Brazil until we are confident of a return
to lower risk in Brazil.
BRAZIL
The continued deterioration of local sentiment in Brazil is concerning. The
solid performance of economic policy variables has had little effect on local
confidence, as political uncertainty is increasing the risk of a lack of
continuity during the next administration. This coupled with worsening
conditions in global capital markets, which has heightened the problem through a
rapid reduction in capital flows to Brazil, and subsequent reduction in
liquidity, has placed significant pressure on the currency. Although difficult,
we believe that the situation is not imminently dire and that both sovereign
debt and corporate debt is manageable, reiterating our positive view on
Brazilian macro fundamentals and fiscal adaptability. As the investment
environment shifts with the upcoming elections and continued support from the
international community and the IMF, we would be looking to re-enter the market
more aggressively.
CHILE
We are examining our holdings in Chile, as the market has proven not to be the
safe haven it once was, driven by a sluggish domestic economy and lack of
liquidity. The Chilean Central Bank cut its monetary policy rate by 75bps, to
3.25% in July, the fifth cut this year, however it was not enough to excite the
markets.
OTHER MARKETS
We remain un-invested in Venezuela and Argentina because of the economic and
political uncertainties faced by both countries and the unpredictability of the
markets.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/07/02 30/06/02 31/07/02 30/06/02
57.6p 66.3p 66.6p 73.4p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/07/02 30/06/02
Ordinary Shares 46.00p 57.50p
Warrants 10.25p 13.75p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £27.6 million (£31.7 million).
Market exposure
31/07/02 30/06/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 27.8 29.2
Chile 9.6 7.7
Mexico 49.8 41.3
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 87.2 78.2
Net Current Assets 12.8 21.8
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TOTAL 100.0 100.0
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Based on total assets of £30.8 million (£41.5 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/07/02 30/06/02
11.6% 31.1%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £25.0 million equal to 93.2% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 4,125 15.4
Petrobras Brazil 2,134 8.0
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,081 7.8
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,645 6.1
Cemex Mexico 1,429 5.3
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,386 5.2
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,299 4.8
Grupo Televisa Mexico 955 3.6
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 941 3.5
America Movil Mexico 916 3.4
Ambev Brazil 830 3.1
Femsa Mexico 811 3.0
Banco Itau Brazil 789 2.9
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 681 2.5
D & S Chile 573 2.1
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 547 2.0
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 523 2.0
Gpo Imsa Mexico 515 1.9
Telecom de Chile Chile 492 1.8
Embraer Brazil 474 1.8
Gerdau Brazil 468 1.8
Pao de Acucar Brazil 395 1.5
Brasil Telecom Brazil 347 1.3
EMP Nac Electricid Brazil 335 1.3
Gissa Mexico 294 1.1
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Half Year 31 August 2002
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
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