Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 19 August 2002 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2002 SUMMARY The Latin American equity market fell sharply in July, driven by weak global markets and its own homegrown concerns. Initially led by the U.S, with its continued valuation and corporate accounting concerns, investors became increasingly alarmed by Brazil, where continued weak poll results for the government candidate drove the currency weaker, country risk higher and the market down by nearly 30%. With major exchanges touching levels not seen since the 1997 Asian crisis, the MSCI Latin index declined by 17.6% in sterling. Against this backdrop, the Trust outperformed again this month, widening the margin against the MSCI year to date. We have repaid $10 million of our borrowings but still have $5 million drawn down. We are holding this in cash at the moment but believe we may get a good opportunity to use it in the coming months. As in June, Brazil was once again the dominant story in the region as it saw its equity market slide to new lows. The market sold off on a number of factors including a continued rise in investor concern over the possibility of a Lula presidency and an overall rise in risk aversion. The global credit crunch began to affect Brazilian companies looking to roll over trade lines and the weakening real exacerbated the government's debt ratios as a large portion of the domestic debt is U.S. dollar linked. The Republic's C Bond, the primary indicator of Brazil's sovereign risk, widened to nearly 2,000 basis points above corresponding U.S. Treasury bonds. The Brazilian Central Bank and the government responded with a series of measures including tapping into IMF and World Bank funds, lowering the foreign reserves floor and raising bank reserve requirements. The real continued to weaken along with most regional currencies, declining nearly 9% for the month in sterling. The currency has now fallen over 30% year to date. In the continuing effort to keep inflation under control, the Central Bank left rates unchanged at the July COPOM meeting but has signalled a downward bias, indicating that aside from short-term financial market concerns, fundamentals were suggestive of lower rates. The effects of Brazil's weakness are also being felt in Chile. The effect, for very different reasons, has been muted in Mexico and Argentina. Nonetheless, Mexican shares fell nearly 5% in sterling, dragged down by concern that a sluggish U.S. economy will depress earnings and dampen consumer spending. The peso, amid a weaker dollar and Brazil concerns, approached the psychological barrier of MX$10/US$ and country spreads widened 100 bps as domestic rates reached their highest level since February. GDP growth was revised, to reflect the weaker environment, from 2.8% to 2%. Continued investor concerns over the US will likely weigh on the market until stronger signs of growth emerge. The portfolio continued to perform well, outperforming the index for the month and year to date. Performance was driven primarily by focused stock selection in both Brazil and Mexico. The number of companies owned in Brazil was reduced, and the Trust was geared toward a more defensive and cautious position with a preference for dollar exporters and companies with little or no dollar debt. Although the Trust's holdings posted negative absolute returns, relative performance fared well. The next largest contribution to performance came from our overweight position in Mexico. More defensive names such as Coke Femsa and WalMex were top contributors to performance. The move to a larger overweight in Mexico vis a vis Brazil worked in the Trust's favour as the market significantly outperformed Brazil. In contrast to previous months, the Trust's zero weight in Argentina detracted from performance as the Merval significantly outperformed the benchmark. Regardless, the situation remains precarious and we continue to favour avoiding the market. Stocks in Chile, where the Trust has a significant weighting, also outperformed the index, down only 5% in sterling. The Trust's stock selection was less helpful in Chile, as our holdings tend to be somewhat fragmented in less liquid names. From a sector perspective, the portfolio's defensive tilt toward consumer staples and significant overweight in the area has worked well, mitigating weakness in the telecommunications sector. In addition to consumer staples the portfolio is overweight materials and underweight energy. Our conclusions looking forward remain broadly in line with the investment themes of the past month. MEXICO The Mexican economy continues to tread water. Recent trade and employment data suggests that the recovery is lukewarm with consumers turning more timid as contagion from US markets continues to depress sentiment. However, if inflation continues to remain low, which is the current indication, and the current account deficit remains at current levels, the peso and interest rates should remain in the targeted range. This scenario offers more confidence than the precarious nature of the Brazilian market. Consequently, we are likely to maintain our overweight in Mexico vs. Brazil until we are confident of a return to lower risk in Brazil. BRAZIL The continued deterioration of local sentiment in Brazil is concerning. The solid performance of economic policy variables has had little effect on local confidence, as political uncertainty is increasing the risk of a lack of continuity during the next administration. This coupled with worsening conditions in global capital markets, which has heightened the problem through a rapid reduction in capital flows to Brazil, and subsequent reduction in liquidity, has placed significant pressure on the currency. Although difficult, we believe that the situation is not imminently dire and that both sovereign debt and corporate debt is manageable, reiterating our positive view on Brazilian macro fundamentals and fiscal adaptability. As the investment environment shifts with the upcoming elections and continued support from the international community and the IMF, we would be looking to re-enter the market more aggressively. CHILE We are examining our holdings in Chile, as the market has proven not to be the safe haven it once was, driven by a sluggish domestic economy and lack of liquidity. The Chilean Central Bank cut its monetary policy rate by 75bps, to 3.25% in July, the fifth cut this year, however it was not enough to excite the markets. OTHER MARKETS We remain un-invested in Venezuela and Argentina because of the economic and political uncertainties faced by both countries and the unpredictability of the markets. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/07/02 30/06/02 31/07/02 30/06/02 57.6p 66.3p 66.6p 73.4p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/07/02 30/06/02 Ordinary Shares 46.00p 57.50p Warrants 10.25p 13.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £27.6 million (£31.7 million). Market exposure 31/07/02 30/06/02 % % EQUITIES Brazil 27.8 29.2 Chile 9.6 7.7 Mexico 49.8 41.3 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 87.2 78.2 Net Current Assets 12.8 21.8 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £30.8 million (£41.5 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/07/02 30/06/02 11.6% 31.1% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £25.0 million equal to 93.2% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 4,125 15.4 Petrobras Brazil 2,134 8.0 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,081 7.8 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,645 6.1 Cemex Mexico 1,429 5.3 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,386 5.2 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,299 4.8 Grupo Televisa Mexico 955 3.6 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 941 3.5 America Movil Mexico 916 3.4 Ambev Brazil 830 3.1 Femsa Mexico 811 3.0 Banco Itau Brazil 789 2.9 Aracruz Celulose Brazil 681 2.5 D & S Chile 573 2.1 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 547 2.0 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 523 2.0 Gpo Imsa Mexico 515 1.9 Telecom de Chile Chile 492 1.8 Embraer Brazil 474 1.8 Gerdau Brazil 468 1.8 Pao de Acucar Brazil 395 1.5 Brasil Telecom Brazil 347 1.3 EMP Nac Electricid Brazil 335 1.3 Gissa Mexico 294 1.1 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Half Year 31 August 2002 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/ or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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