Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
18 December 2002
DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2002
SUMMARY
The MSCI Latin American equity index rose by 3.7% in sterling in November, led
by Venezuela, Peru, Argentina and Chile. Global markets in general were
supportive and currencies and sovereign spreads stable. While Mexico
outperformed the region as a whole, up 5.3% in sterling, Brazil lagged, up less
than 1%, as the euphoria over the presidential election tempered and reality
over the tough macro environment ahead came to the fore. The Trust's NAV per
share closed up 2.3% for the month, underperforming the benchmark due to its
lack of investments in the peripheral markets and more defensive holdings in
Brazil and Mexico.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI closed up 0.6% in sterling in November, with the currency
relatively stable versus the pound. The Central Bank raised the Selic rate by
100 basis points to 22%, maintaining a neutral bias. The co-ordinator of Lula's
transition team, and likely future finance minister continued to please the
market with his statements, acknowledging the 'two critical problems' of the
Brazilian economy, inflation and the deficit of the social security system. My
recent trip to Brazil confirmed rising inflationary expectations on the part of
the corporate sector and local economists, which are projected between 15-20%
for 2003. The primary shocks created by sharp domestic currency depreciation
(the real is down over 35% for the year versus the pound) have been the main
source of inflation pressure in 2002. While the currency may have overshot, at
3.7 to the USD, it is more likely to stay in a trading range between 3.5-3.8 in
the interim, given the Lula team's need to prove themselves. The trade balance
posted another strong showing in November of a $US 2.2 billion surplus, and
continues to be the bright spot on the economic horizon. The current account
deficit continues to shrink and will post the best results in nearly a decade.
In general, both corporate executives and members of the opposition parties
seemed encouraged by Lula's initial statements and pragmatism in his
appointments.
Given our belief in a path of higher inflation, a continued weak currency
(although not weakening substantially from here), prolonged difficulty in
accessing new credit and the ongoing spotlight on the domestic debt burden, and
finally modest growth prospects for 2003, we continue to overweight defensive
companies. These include the exporters such as Aracruz, CVRD and VCP and certain
steel companies, those which should benefit from domestic currency weakness and
have strong pricing power, such as CBD and AMBEV, and those which are not
exposed to regulatory risk or potential adverse tax situations. We are also very
conscious of the debt burdens on companies' balance sheets and continue to avoid
those with substantial dollar denominated debts. Consequently, we continue to
avoid the electric utilities, are underweight Petrobras, and are increasingly
cautious toward the telephone sector. While we believe the positive momentum
surrounding the Lula presidency will remain into the new year, we are closely
following the announcements of cabinet appointees and need greater clarity on
the legislative agenda.
MEXICO
The Mexican market was helped by strong US markets, as domestic news saw
continued political stalling on the reform agenda, lacklustre economic data, and
weaker oil prices. Nonetheless, the market was up over 5% for the month, with
the currency strengthening to 10:1USD. Following the trajectory of the US
economic scenario, the third quarter GDP rose less than expected (1.8%), driven
by a weak industrial sector and mediocre service sector. Retail sales fell 2%
year on year, suggesting a cooling in the consumer sector. While the Mexican
recovery is tied to the U.S. and real growth will not resume until 2003, we
continue to prefer the Mexican economic landscape, with its declining interest
rates, more stable currency, and lower inflation, to Brazil. In particular, we
like the Mexican consumer names and telephone companies such as Telmex and AMX
which have stable cash flows, low financial debts and are priced at historically
low multiples. With the likely passage of the 2003 budget ahead of schedule,
President Fox appears to be gaining momentum, which bodes well for passage of
reforms in 2003.
CHILE
The Chilean MSCI closed up 5.7% for the month, as the currency continued to
strengthen (over 3% for the month) given reduced Brazil risk, weaker oil prices,
and higher copper prices. Economic data, however, remained weak and the Central
Bank maintained rates steady at 3%, given the recent rise in non-core inflation.
Our stock selection was positive for the month, however we remain underweight
the market given more attractive opportunities elsewhere.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI rose 5.0% for the month, with the currency weakening nearly
4%. The market strengthened on the back of second-tier names and the currency
was impacted by the decision to lift the 'corralito.'. Economic data continues
to show a stabilised economic situation, although there are no apparent signs of
recovery. Moreover, negotiations with the IMF remain at a standstill, and are
not helped by the recent decision to default on the World Bank debt. The
political picture leading into the delayed presidential elections remains
unclear and the recent resignation of the Central bank president is another
indication that the prospects for a turnaround in the economy are bleak. We
remain zero-weighted in this market, which represents over 5% of the index.
VENEZUELA
The Venezuelan market surprised for the month, up over 12%, with the currency
strengthening and sovereign spreads continuing to contract, despite lower oil
prices. Political tension rose with the ongoing call for a non-binding
referendum, OAS negotiations continuing, and the government taking control of
the police force. The expectation is for Chavez to leave, either by force or by
will, which may continue to bolster the market. Unfortunately, we are at a loss
to find an investable company in Venezuela and therefore will remain
zero-weighted.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/11/02 31/10/02 30/11/02 31/10/02
58.6p 57.3p 67.3p 66.3p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/02 31/10/02
Ordinary Shares 47.50p 45.00p
Warrants 8.75p 9.00p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £28.0 million (£27.4 million).
Market exposure
30/11/02 31/10/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 35.8 38.3
Chile 3.4 2.8
Mexico 53.5 51.3
Peru 2.3 2.3
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 95.0 94.7
Net Current Assets 5.0 5.3
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £31.2 million (£30.6 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/11/02 31/10/02
11.5% 11.7%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.3 million equal to 98.8% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,792 12.8
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,609 8.8
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,311 7.9
Petrobras Brazil 1,915 6.4
Cemex Mexico 1,825 6.1
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,768 6.0
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,480 5.0
Ambev Brazil 1,286 4.3
America Movil Mexico 1,256 4.2
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,121 3.8
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,079 3.6
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 974 3.3
Brasil Telecom Brazil 969 3.3
Femsa Mexico 927 3.1
Pao de Acucar Brazil 866 2.9
Minas Buenaventura Peru 722 2.4
Banco Itau Brazil 692 2.3
Telecom de Chile Chile 654 2.2
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 609 2.0
Gerdau Brazil 554 1.9
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 478 1.6
Bco Bradesco Brazil 453 1.5
Bco Santander Chile 421 1.4
Embraer Brazil 347 1.2
Gissa Mexico 237 0.8
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a scheme through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the
price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may
also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which
may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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The company news service from the London Stock Exchange