Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 18 December 2002 DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST PLC REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2002 SUMMARY The MSCI Latin American equity index rose by 3.7% in sterling in November, led by Venezuela, Peru, Argentina and Chile. Global markets in general were supportive and currencies and sovereign spreads stable. While Mexico outperformed the region as a whole, up 5.3% in sterling, Brazil lagged, up less than 1%, as the euphoria over the presidential election tempered and reality over the tough macro environment ahead came to the fore. The Trust's NAV per share closed up 2.3% for the month, underperforming the benchmark due to its lack of investments in the peripheral markets and more defensive holdings in Brazil and Mexico. BRAZIL The Brazilian MSCI closed up 0.6% in sterling in November, with the currency relatively stable versus the pound. The Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 100 basis points to 22%, maintaining a neutral bias. The co-ordinator of Lula's transition team, and likely future finance minister continued to please the market with his statements, acknowledging the 'two critical problems' of the Brazilian economy, inflation and the deficit of the social security system. My recent trip to Brazil confirmed rising inflationary expectations on the part of the corporate sector and local economists, which are projected between 15-20% for 2003. The primary shocks created by sharp domestic currency depreciation (the real is down over 35% for the year versus the pound) have been the main source of inflation pressure in 2002. While the currency may have overshot, at 3.7 to the USD, it is more likely to stay in a trading range between 3.5-3.8 in the interim, given the Lula team's need to prove themselves. The trade balance posted another strong showing in November of a $US 2.2 billion surplus, and continues to be the bright spot on the economic horizon. The current account deficit continues to shrink and will post the best results in nearly a decade. In general, both corporate executives and members of the opposition parties seemed encouraged by Lula's initial statements and pragmatism in his appointments. Given our belief in a path of higher inflation, a continued weak currency (although not weakening substantially from here), prolonged difficulty in accessing new credit and the ongoing spotlight on the domestic debt burden, and finally modest growth prospects for 2003, we continue to overweight defensive companies. These include the exporters such as Aracruz, CVRD and VCP and certain steel companies, those which should benefit from domestic currency weakness and have strong pricing power, such as CBD and AMBEV, and those which are not exposed to regulatory risk or potential adverse tax situations. We are also very conscious of the debt burdens on companies' balance sheets and continue to avoid those with substantial dollar denominated debts. Consequently, we continue to avoid the electric utilities, are underweight Petrobras, and are increasingly cautious toward the telephone sector. While we believe the positive momentum surrounding the Lula presidency will remain into the new year, we are closely following the announcements of cabinet appointees and need greater clarity on the legislative agenda. MEXICO The Mexican market was helped by strong US markets, as domestic news saw continued political stalling on the reform agenda, lacklustre economic data, and weaker oil prices. Nonetheless, the market was up over 5% for the month, with the currency strengthening to 10:1USD. Following the trajectory of the US economic scenario, the third quarter GDP rose less than expected (1.8%), driven by a weak industrial sector and mediocre service sector. Retail sales fell 2% year on year, suggesting a cooling in the consumer sector. While the Mexican recovery is tied to the U.S. and real growth will not resume until 2003, we continue to prefer the Mexican economic landscape, with its declining interest rates, more stable currency, and lower inflation, to Brazil. In particular, we like the Mexican consumer names and telephone companies such as Telmex and AMX which have stable cash flows, low financial debts and are priced at historically low multiples. With the likely passage of the 2003 budget ahead of schedule, President Fox appears to be gaining momentum, which bodes well for passage of reforms in 2003. CHILE The Chilean MSCI closed up 5.7% for the month, as the currency continued to strengthen (over 3% for the month) given reduced Brazil risk, weaker oil prices, and higher copper prices. Economic data, however, remained weak and the Central Bank maintained rates steady at 3%, given the recent rise in non-core inflation. Our stock selection was positive for the month, however we remain underweight the market given more attractive opportunities elsewhere. ARGENTINA The Argentine MSCI rose 5.0% for the month, with the currency weakening nearly 4%. The market strengthened on the back of second-tier names and the currency was impacted by the decision to lift the 'corralito.'. Economic data continues to show a stabilised economic situation, although there are no apparent signs of recovery. Moreover, negotiations with the IMF remain at a standstill, and are not helped by the recent decision to default on the World Bank debt. The political picture leading into the delayed presidential elections remains unclear and the recent resignation of the Central bank president is another indication that the prospects for a turnaround in the economy are bleak. We remain zero-weighted in this market, which represents over 5% of the index. VENEZUELA The Venezuelan market surprised for the month, up over 12%, with the currency strengthening and sovereign spreads continuing to contract, despite lower oil prices. Political tension rose with the ongoing call for a non-binding referendum, OAS negotiations continuing, and the government taking control of the police force. The expectation is for Chavez to leave, either by force or by will, which may continue to bolster the market. Unfortunately, we are at a loss to find an investable company in Venezuela and therefore will remain zero-weighted. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/11/02 31/10/02 30/11/02 31/10/02 58.6p 57.3p 67.3p 66.3p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/02 31/10/02 Ordinary Shares 47.50p 45.00p Warrants 8.75p 9.00p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £28.0 million (£27.4 million). Market exposure 30/11/02 31/10/02 % % EQUITIES Brazil 35.8 38.3 Chile 3.4 2.8 Mexico 53.5 51.3 Peru 2.3 2.3 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 95.0 94.7 Net Current Assets 5.0 5.3 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £31.2 million (£30.6 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/11/02 31/10/02 11.5% 11.7% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.3 million equal to 98.8% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 3,792 12.8 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,609 8.8 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,311 7.9 Petrobras Brazil 1,915 6.4 Cemex Mexico 1,825 6.1 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,768 6.0 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,480 5.0 Ambev Brazil 1,286 4.3 America Movil Mexico 1,256 4.2 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,121 3.8 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 1,079 3.6 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 974 3.3 Brasil Telecom Brazil 969 3.3 Femsa Mexico 927 3.1 Pao de Acucar Brazil 866 2.9 Minas Buenaventura Peru 722 2.4 Banco Itau Brazil 692 2.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 654 2.2 Aracruz Celulose Brazil 609 2.0 Gerdau Brazil 554 1.9 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 478 1.6 Bco Bradesco Brazil 453 1.5 Bco Santander Chile 421 1.4 Embraer Brazil 347 1.2 Gissa Mexico 237 0.8 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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