Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
20 February 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2003
SUMMARY
The MSCI Latin American equity index declined 6.0% in sterling capital terms in
January, underperforming global markets, which were also weak for the month. Of
the major markets, Mexico led the decline, off 7.2% on renewed concerns
regarding the peso (which depreciated by 7% versus the pound), heightened war
risk and the anaemic U.S economy. Brazilian equity markets declined over 6% in
sterling, as the real weakened by over 1% for the month. Argentina, up 6.2% in
sterling for the month, outperformed, as the currency bucked the regional trend.
Venezuela was off nearly 26% as the political impasse continued. The Trust's NAV
was down 6.7% for the month as performance was largely driven by our country
allocation (overweight Mexico and zero weight Argentina.) Stock selection was
largely neutral for the month. Global risk aversion in light of the growing
concern over a US led war with Iraq continued to spook the equity markets, as
did signs that the world's largest economies have yet to pull out of their
economic slump. In addition, the US dollar fell again for the month against the
Euro and pound Sterling. These factors weighed heavily on emerging stock
markets, and Latin America in particular as its ties to the US and the dollar
are far greater.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI closed down 6.1% in Sterling in January, with the currency
off over 1% versus the pound sterling. The Central Bank raised the Selic rate 50
b.p. to 25.5% on fears of growing inflation. The Bank has thus far maintained a
proactive approach to keeping inflation and expectations under control.
Corporate highlights of the month included the TCP takeover of the cellular
company TRO and the Bradesco purchase of BBVA in Brazil.
The best performing Brazilian stocks in the Trust for the month were Petrobras,
Aracruz, and VCP. The banks and CVRD, where we are overweight the benchmark,
underperformed for the month, which hurt performance. Both fixed line telephony
companies, Telenorte Leste and Brazil Telecom, were positive contributors for
the month. We continue to have our reservations regarding the near term
prognosis for Brazil, despite positive gains on the trade front, given its debt
refinancing needs, higher inflation and interest rates and risk of impasse at
the political level. Given our concerns, we have favoured low leveraged plays
with an emphasis on exporters and commodity producers.
MEXICO
The Mexican market weakened again over 7% for the month, with the peso also
declining by as much. Cetes rates rose significantly, and the Central Bank
increased the Corto. Economic activity, as measured by retail sales, came in
under expectations. The President announced cabinet changes with Jorge Castaneda
stepping down as Foreign Minister. The key issues to continue to watch will be
the trend of the peso, oil prices, and domestic Mexico and US economic data, as
well as fourth quarter corporate earnings reports. On a positive note, the
country placed a $US 2 billion 10 year global bond the beginning of January at
246 b.p. over US Treasuries, completing its external financing needs for 2003.
The Mexican peso and its ties to the US dollar continues to be a negative factor
weighing on the stock market, particularly as performance is translated into
Sterling. The peso is now consistently trading near 11: USD, despite the Central
Bank's attempts to stem the decline by raising the Corto. Economic data remains
sluggish and there is no evidence of a pick up in the economy any time soon.
There is a divergence of opinion between the Central Bank and Hacienda as to how
low the Peso can trade, given the Bank's hawkish stance on pass through to
inflation. Politics remains at an impasse as the mid-term elections rapidly
approach and there is less and less confidence in the government's ability to
pass the much needed reforms on the electricity, labor and tax fronts.
Walmex recouped some of the losses from prior months, and was a key contributor
to performance in the Trust for the month. Other overweight positions which
helped were Coca-Cola Femsa and Bancomer. Despite our large overweight position
in the country (52.8% versus 44.8% for the benchmark), stock selection for the
month was neutral. Cemex was a key detractor, as they reported weaker than
expected fourth quarter figures. America Movil reported better than expected
results, and outperformed the index strongly, however our constraints in adding
to the stock given the restriction of not investing more than 15% in any one
group of companies did not allow the Trust to benefit as it might have.
CHILE
The Chilean MSCI closed down 4.4% for the month in sterling, and the currency
weakened over 4% for January. The Trust's weighting is now approximately 4% in
the country as compared to over 9% for the benchmark. High oil prices hurt the
currency, although this was partially offset by stronger copper prices.
Inflation continued benign, and the Central Bank cut interest rates by a further
25 b.p. to 2.8% as economic growth continued to come in below expectations. We
will continue to monitor signs of strengthening in the economy, trends in oil
and copper prices, and any impact on the government's reform agenda resulting
from the recent corruption scandals. Stock selection was also neutral for the
month, as the Trust's overweight positions in CTC and Banco Santander
outperformed the index.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market led the region again for the month, up over 6%, as the
currency strengthened 2.5% against the pound. The country reached a deal with
the IMF, albeit a transitory one which provides them with no net new money.
Economic indicators continue to improve, however political indicators remain as
uncertain as before. Of note, the Quilmes takeover by Ambev was approved, with
conditions. On a positive note, there was a further easing of foreign exchange
restrictions, which should help exporters in particular. Were it not for the
fact that there are few if any exporters to own, we might be more encouraged to
invest in the country, however with the current uncertainty surrounding the next
government, we have chosen to stay zero weighted.
PERU/ VENEZUELA
The Peruvian market was up strongly again, driven by higher metals prices and
the Trust's holding in Buenaventura continued to bolster performance. President
Toledo's approval ratings continued to climb, however a congressional law
against the phone company caused private sector concern. We are wary of
investing in anything related to the domestic economy, and prefer to limit our
investment in the country to one of the world's lowest cost gold exporters. The
Venezuelan market collapsed by nearly 26% with the currency off as much as the
national strike remained unresolved. The February 2 referendum was suspended and
the OAS -led talks were unproductive. The currency weakness prompted the Central
Bank to impose foreign exchange controls as foreign reserves have been
significantly eroded since the end of the year. The situation appears hopeless
at this juncture and with the current FX controls any investment in the equity
market is unwarranted.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/01/03 31/12/02 31/01/03 31/12/02
52.9p 56.7p 62.9p 65.9p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/01/03 31/12/02
Ordinary Shares 42.25p 46.50p
Warrants 7.50p 7.75p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £25.3 million (£27.1 million).
Market exposure
31/01/03 31/12/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 40.1 38.0
Chile 4.2 3.4
Mexico 49.9 50.8
Peru 3.0 2.7
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 97.2 94.9
Net Current Assets 2.8 5.1
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £28.3 million (£30.2 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/01/03 31/12/02
12.0% 11.5%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £27.3 million equal to 99.1% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,333 12.1
Petrobras Brazil 2,549 9.3
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,479 9.0
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,161 7.8
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,952 7.1
Ambev Brazil 1,155 4.2
Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,136 4.1
America Movil Mexico 1,106 4.0
Cemex Mexico 1,053 3.8
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,000 3.6
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 966 3.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 936 3.4
Minas Buenaventura Peru 841 3.1
Femsa Mexico 788 2.9
Pao de Acucar Brazil 752 2.7
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 734 2.7
Banco Itau Brazil 686 2.5
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 656 2.4
Telecom de Chile Chile 602 2.2
Votorantim Celolose Brazil 537 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 495 1.8
Bco Bradesco Brazil 457 1.7
Bco Santander Chile 390 1.4
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 337 1.2
GPO Industrial Saltillo Mexico 207 0.8
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year End 28 February 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a scheme through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the
price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may
also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which
may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange