Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
12 March 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2003
SUMMARY
The MSCI Latin American equity index rose 2.0% in sterling in February, against
the backdrop of weak global markets and fears of an imminent war with Iraq. The
major Latin currencies did well against the pound in February, contributing to
the region's positive performance for the month. Argentina and Venezuela were
again the big winners, with the MSCI index in each up over 16% and 18%
respectively. In contrast with January, Mexico outperformed Brazil, up 1.9% in
sterling terms, while Brazil was basically flat for the month. The Trust was up
1.5% for the month as performance was again largely driven by our country
allocation. In particular, the lack of Argentine and Venezuelan holdings, while
justified in the manager's opinion, hurt performance again for the month. On a
positive note, stock selection, particularly in Brazil, again helped performance
for the month. We see global risk aversion continuing, as the lack of a united
front against Iraq hurts sentiment and the prospects for a quick and successful
war grow dimmer. In this environment, investors are likely to refrain from
taking on undue risk until after the fallout from the war.
Brazil
The Brazilian MSCI was up 0.1% in sterling in February, with the currency
strengthening 2.6% versus the pound. The Central Bank raised rates again this
month, by 100 b.p., although less than expected as inflation expectations
continue to rise. The equity market decoupled significantly from a rising bond
market as the C bond continued to strengthen. The external sector continues to
do well. Several Brazilian companies were successful in tapping the
international debt markets, which represents a welcome easing of global worries
over Brazil's debt situation.
On the political front, February marked the start of legislative activities in
the Lower House and Senate, and the President announced several changes to the
Central Bank's board. President Lula and his team continue to signal the right
noises to the market, however very little progress has been made. The work on
long-delayed reforms, particularly social security and tax reforms, remains to
be done, as President Lula and his party are still drafting proposed legislation
in order to achieve promptness and smooth passage once the reforms arrive in
Congress.
On the economy, February's announcement by Finance Ministry Palocci of an
increase in the primary surplus target for 2003 (from 3.75% to 4.25% of GDP) and
the Central Bank decision to tighten monetary policy again were the most
significant events. These orthodox economic policies are a further attempt by
the Lula administration to support the real, reassure investors and diminish the
inflationary pass-through of the weaker real in 2002. Higher inflation remains
the main concern on investors' and policy makers' minds.
Despite the market's inferior performance for the month, stock selection in
Brazil contributed a positive 56 b.p to performance. In particular, the Trust's
holdings in CVRD, VCP, Gerdau and Aracruz were all positive contributors for the
month. Petrobras, Telenorte and Pao de Azucar were the key detractors from
performance. The Trust is now slightly overweight Brazil, with a continued
emphasis on the defensive stocks, namely the exporters, the banks and the fixed
line telcos. We continue to be concerned with continuing near-term volatility,
especially in the event of further risk-aversion, to which Brazil is vulnerable,
once any conflict with Iraq breaks out.
Mexico
The Mexican MSCI rose nearly 2% for the month in sterling, with the peso
strengthening 3.6% against the pound. There are some signs that inflation
expectations in Mexico may finally be beginning to peak after the Central Bank
increased the Corto in February for the third time over the past two months. The
Mexican government also released the 2002 data for the balance of payments and
economic growth. The trade deficit at US $8 billion, came in lower than expected
with the current account deficit hovering at 2.2% of GDP, also a good
performance. FDI reached $13.6 billion, quite strong if we compare to 2001
ex-Citibank acquisition of Banacci. Full year GDP growth was 0.9% for 2002,
fuelled by a nearly 2% gain in the fourth quarter, a modest improvement from the
0.3% decline in 2001. On balance, Mexico's external fundamentals remain strong,
however we still see economic activity as fragile. December's industrial
production and retail sales figures were released which continued to show very
anaemic growth. On a more positive note, the country successfully placed a
12-year bond at the end of the month which was nearly two times oversubscribed
and resulted in a spread of 312bps over comparable U.S. Treasuries, the lowest
ever for such a maturity.
Corporate results for the quarter have started to report and are generally a bit
weaker than expected (namely Cemex and the industrials), although Telmex was in
line and Walmex beat expectations. In the Trust, stock selection was largely
neutral, as the positive effects from the overweight position in Walmex and
underweight positions in TMX and American Movil (which were down for the month)
were offset by our holdings in certain beverage stocks like Modelo, Femsa and
Coca-Cola Femsa, which were down for the month. In general, while Mexico's
economy still awaits a more decisive upturn in the U.S. economy, the market
remains our top pick for 2003 and accordingly, our biggest overweight in the
region on the more solid economic prospects and company fundamentals.
Chile
The Chilean MSCI closed up 4.7% for the month in sterling, and the currency
gained 2.8% against the pound. The Trust's weighting in Chile, at roughly 4%, is
still markedly underweight the benchmark of over 9%. Stock selection was neutral
for the month, with the positive performance by the telephone company CTC
neutralizing the downturn in Banco Santander and the fixed line company Entel.
Some of the important economic indicators released in February suggest a
tentative pick up in the economy, however GDP growth of 2% for 2002 was largely
disappointing. We remain underweight this market, however would look to add to
the bank and CTC as a safer haven in a likely war with Iraq.
Argentina
The Argentine market led the region again in February, up over 16% in sterling
terms. The peso appreciated nearly 5% against the pound. Politics remains the
key risk going forward, as no clear poll leader is evident in the run up to the
April 27 presidential elections. Economic data continues to point to a recovery
off the bottom, and the Duhalde government has taken measures to liberalise the
currency controls and assist the banking system. We have chosen to stay out of
this market until a clear political course is outlined, and prospects for
Argentine companies are clear.
Peru/ Venezuela
The Peruvian market was up again in February, +2.7% in sterling, however the
Trust's sole Peruvian holding, Buenaventura, fell during the month as investors
took profits in the stock. Buenaventura remains one of the world's lowest cost
gold exporters and we continue to like the stock, particularly as a defensive
play. The Venezuelan market rebounded over 18% for the month, with the currency
up nearly 26% for the month versus sterling, as authorities fixed the exchange
rate at VEB 1598 versus the US dollar, 17% stronger the previous level of VEB
1918. Chavez continued to exert his control. The government announced the
introduction of retail price controls. The national strike broke down, with oil
production increasingly slowly off its strike lows. The government also moved
against its opposition, arresting the principle strike leaders. Political
tension remains high, and there does not appear any investments worthy of the
risk/return trade-off.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
28/02/03 31/01/03 28/02/03 31/01/03
53.7p 52.9p 63.5p 62.9p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 28/02/03 31/01/03
Ordinary Shares 42.75p 42.25p
Warrants 7.50p 7.50p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £25.7 million (£25.3 million).
Market exposure
28/02/03 31/01/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 42.1 40.1
Chile 4.3 4.2
Mexico 48.9 49.9
Peru 2.8 3.0
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.1 97.2
Net Current Assets 1.9 2.8
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £28.8 million (£28.3 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 28/02/03 31/01/03
12.4% 12.0%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £27.8 million equal to 98.4% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,377 11.9
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,576 9.1
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,547 9.0
Petrobras Brazil 2,483 8.8
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 2,003 7.1
America Movil Mexico 1,130 4.0
Ambev Brazil 1,096 3.9
Grupo Televisa Mexico 987 3.5
Grupo Modelo Mexico 964 3.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 948 3.4
Cemex Mexico 935 3.3
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 884 3.1
Minas Buenaventura Peru 800 2.8
Femsa Mexico 791 2.8
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 758 2.7
Banco Itau Brazil 719 2.5
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 693 2.5
Telecom de Chile Chile 636 2.3
Pao de Acucar Brazil 606 2.1
Votorantim Celolose Brazil 604 2.1
Sider Nacional Brazil 544 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 535 1.9
Bco Bradesco Brazil 486 1.7
Bco Santander Chile 399 1.4
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 349 1.2
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Announcement of results 29 April 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the
price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may
also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which
may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange