Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
28 April 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2003
SUMMARY
Latin America recovered greatly in March to help the quarter end in positive
territory. The turnaround was led by Brazil, where the MSCI benchmark was up
12.4% in sterling terms for the month, and 5.6% for the three months ending 31
March. The MSCI Latin American Free index was up 5.2% for March, helping to
offset losses earlier in the year. The index is now up 0.9% for the year in
sterling terms, outperforming the Emerging Markets Free and handily beating the
S&P. For the month, the major Latin currencies again told the story, as the real
gained strength against sterling (+5.8%) while the Mexican peso recovered off
its lows (+1.6% versus sterling). The Argentine peso rose nearly 7% and the
Venezuelan Bolivar continued to depreciate falling 0.7% for March, and nearly -
12% for the three month period.
Despite global jitters related to the ongoing war in Iraq, investors continued
to warm to the near term outlook for Brazil, which represents 39% of the MSCI.
Lula enjoys considerable support, and there is growing expectation of some
movement in structural reforms. The Central Bank is acting responsibly in a
concerted effort to bring down inflation, trade balances continue to be strong
and some credit is beginning to flow to the corporate sector. The Brazilian C
Bond, the major barometer of Brazilian risk, continues to tighten and now trades
roughly 1000 basis points over comparable US Treasuries, a far cry from the 2300
levels of last September. The real is back to 3.3 to the US dollar and expected
to continue to strengthen. The only negative outlier continues to be interest
rates, with the Central Bank hiking the Selic rate on two occasions this past
quarter, to 26.5%.
The portfolio returned 5.2% for the month in line with the index despite our
overweight position in Mexico (an average of 49% versus the index of 44%)
although stock selection was positive for the month. The biggest detractor was
the portfolio's more defensive tilt in Brazil which hurt performance; our
overweight position in names like CVRD, Aracruz, Gerdau and CBD severely
under-performed the banks, cellular companies and selective utilities.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI declined 1.6% in sterling for the month, after two
consecutive months of increases. At 3% of the index, Argentina no longer
represents a major part of the index. The currency continued to strengthen and
economic data shows ongoing signs of recovery, however off an extremely low
base. Industrial production posted its fourth straight month in positive
territory after more than a two-year contraction. This apparent turnaround must
be put in context: Argentina has just suffered its deepest and most protracted
recession in a century. This downturn has taken a heavy toll on the Argentine
populace: economic data reveals that nearly 58% now live below the poverty
level, a worrisome statistic reflecting the poor shape of consumers.
The key determinant to Argentina's future is political. The first round of
presidential elections is scheduled for 27 April, and with a multitude of
candidates in the running (including several from the Peronist party) we do not
expect an outcome until the second round on 18 May. Former President Menem is
the front runner, which may buoy markets near term, but long term still bodes
ill for the necessary changes in fiscal responsibility.
In summary, while the recovery will probably continue apace, longer-term growth
prospects depend on the next government's ability to build support for a
profound economic adjustment, and this manager doubts the willingness to take
the hard measures necessary to ensure fiscal stability. The operating
environment for Argentine companies, save the exporters, remains bleak, as
domestic demand remains anaemic and there is much uncertainty related to the
upcoming election. Many companies are reporting increasing levels of cash flow,
however there has been little to no debt service, thus the long term
profitability remains unclear. With a lack of investable companies, and
significant risk on the political horizon, we prefer to stay clear of Argentine
equities for the time being.
BRAZIL
Lula's first 100 days have been marked by success, as both the country's risk
premium and currency have recovered dramatically from the lows pre-October
election. The MSCI was up 12.4% (in sterling terms) in March and 5.6% for the
first quarter. The new administration has been able to restore confidence by
adhering to a policy track of reversing some of the imbalances created by the
sharp depreciation of the Real in 2002.
The political environment appears to offer a window of opportunity to push
through much needed reforms given that the opposition in Congress is now made up
mainly by the PSDB and the PFL, parties that supported such measures in the
past. There is even rising speculation that legislation leading to an
independent Central Bank may now make headway in Congress, a sign that the
opposition parties may be willing to overlook their loss at the polls in the
interest of the country's long term economic stability. The wildcard remains
Lula's own party's willingness to support ongoing market reforms, which do not
immediately address the social inequalities, which were part of the campaign.
While there remains much to be done to put Brazil on a sustainable course, the
adjustment mechanism in the trade and current account bodes well for the long
term. The country posted a record $US 12.5 billion trade surplus last year and
is on target to post an even higher surplus in 2004. External financing needs
are amply met by the projected levels of FDI, however access to credit must be
normalised if the country is to go back on a sustained growth path. The GDP
estimate of 1.5% for 2002 and forecast of 2% in 2003 is far too low to achieve
the government's long term goals of development and prosperity.
On balance, there is room for optimism short-term, however the long-term
implications of high interest rates and rising inflation are not to be
dismissed. Core inflation remains very high, and with growth still anaemic, the
consumer is feeling the pinch. There are great expectations of an improving
economy by all of Lula's constituents, which may prove tough to deliver absent a
recovery in global growth and a decline in risk premium. In this environment, we
have increased our weighting to approximately 44% as of the end of the first
quarter, as compared to a 38% benchmark. We continue to like the dollar
exporters such as Aracruz, CVRD, VCP, and selective steel companies, the
beverage conglomerate Ambev which has a commanding market share and has been
able to pass on price increases while maintaining volumes, the banks, fixed line
telephone companies and Petrobras.
CHILE
Chile had a more modest recovery in March, the MSCI up 1.9% in sterling, and the
Chilean peso strengthened by 1.5% as well. The country, long one of the
fastest-growing economies in Latin America, is likely to finally see growth
recover in 2003, to a much higher level approaching 3.5%. The recent
acceleration in growth has taken place largely due to a recovery in domestic
demand underscored by higher supermarket and vehicle sales. This is a result of
better-than-expected trends in the labour market and the Central Bank's
aggressive monetary easing throughout the course of 2002. Interest rates are at
record lows and it is only a matter of time before the Chilean consumer feels
more robust. Despite this more positive backdrop, until there is a sustained
recovery in global growth and resulting higher copper prices, there is little
reason to be excited about the Chilean equity market. In addition, the recent
wave of corruption scandals is likely to have a negative effect on President
Lagos' popularity and ability to negotiate with Congress. At over 9% of the
index, we are markedly underweight (4.6%) given a lack of investment
alternatives. We remain favourable toward the strongest banking franchise and
the fixed line telephone company, and have added CCU, the leading beer producer
on the eventual recovery in consumer demand.
MEXICO
The Mexican equity market and currency recovered slightly for March, recouping
some of its losses earlier in the quarter. The MSCI was up a mere 0.9% for March
in sterling and the peso strengthened 1.6% against the pound. The once positive
theme of 'convergence' with the US has proven Mexico's Achilles heel - and the
overriding concern is whether and when US growth will return to modest levels of
growth to help pull Mexico out of its slump. Mexico is not likely to see a
recovery in investment nor employment until the US turns the corner. While the
growth numbers may not indicate it, my recent trip to Mexico found the country
'psychologically' in recession. On a more positive note, most economists expect
that due to the much stronger state of the Mexican consumer this time around (no
loss in real purchasing power due to low levels of inflation), consumption is
ready to rebound coincident with industrial activity without the traditional
lag. The absence of high inflation has left the Mexican consumer's purchasing
power in tact for the first time in decades. In addition, this time around the
crisis was not caused by a financial crisis - the country's banking sector is on
very solid footing and a visit with senior officials from Bancomer found the
bank poised to lend once there is a recovery in demand.
On another positive note, the weaker-than-expected peso and unexpectedly high
price of oil (the government's budget is $US 18.5 per barrel) has improved the
government's fiscal accounts and the deficit should comfortably meet the
government's target of 0.5% of GDP. Mexico currently boasts a record level of
international reserves (exceeding $US 50 billion), manageable annual external
debt amortisation's (a mere $US 6 billion through 2006) and historic low levels
of interest rates. The Central Bank has recently begun a program to auction off
dollars derived from the oil bonanza in an effort to stabilise the peso. These
underpinnings should help to shore up the outlook for peso in the near term
Moreover, we expect Mexico's external accounts to outperform expectations, with
the $14 billion of FDI comfortably financing the current account deficit. Over
the long term, however, healthy sustainable growth and a strong peso will depend
on the government's ability to advance the structural reform agenda.
Unfortunately, with the mid-term elections looming (July 2003), and Fox's
political capital waning, long term structural adjustment, in the form of labour
and tax code changes and a restructuring of the electricity sector do not look
likely during this administration. This may bode ill for Fox, particularly as
there is more recent talk of power outages and electricity shortages which could
stymie industrial production down the road.
With this backdrop, we have been trimming our Mexican weighting in favour of
Brazil, and as of mid-April we are now roughly equal at 45% each. We had reduced
our stakes in Cemex and America Movil due to lack of visibility, and heightened
risk. Certain favourites, such as Walmart, which continues to enjoy robust
same-store sales growth despite the slowdown, Bancomer, which has a solid
franchise, strong balance sheet and management structure, and Telmex, all give
no cause for concern. On balance, we are comfortable that the Mexican companies
owned in the portfolio are under-leveraged, with strong franchise power and cash
flow generating ability to weather the storm. Lacking a domestic catalyst,
however, we do not expect much of a recovery until after the US engine gains
momentum.
CONCLUSION
Latin equity valuations are now far more compelling, versus other emerging
markets, than they have been in the past year, particularly with the recent fall
in certain Asian markets. We are now looking at some of the least expensive
multiples for selective stocks (namely the Mexicans) that we have seen in some
time. While we prefer the long term economic story in Mexico to that of Brazil,
(provided US growth resumes in the second half of 2003), nearer term the
momentum is with Brazil, and thus we have shifted the portfolio to take
advantage of the positive sentiment surrounding Lula and his administration.
While there are still risks endemic to the region (Argentina's political cycle
and Venezuela's Chavez to name some), we believe much of this is priced in and
Latin equities are poised to outperform once global growth picks up steam.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/03/03 28/02/03 31/03/03 28/02/03
56.5p 53.7p 65.7p 63.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/03 28/02/03
Ordinary Shares 46.00p 42.75p
Warrants 7.00p 7.50p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £27.0 million (£25.7 million).
Market exposure
31/03/03 28/02/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 45.7 42.1
Chile 4.4 4.3
Mexico 46.1 48.9
Peru 2.4 2.8
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.6 98.1
Net Current Assets 1.4 1.9
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £30.2 million (£28.8 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/03/03 28/02/03
11.7% 12.4%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £29.2 million equal to 98.2% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,441 11.6
Petrobras Brazil 2,899 9.7
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,793 9.4
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,097 7.1
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,804 6.1
Ambev Brazil 1,575 5.3
Banco Itau Brazil 1,198 4.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,182 4.0
America Movil Mexico 1,091 3.7
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,077 3.6
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,075 3.6
Grupo Modelo Mexico 844 2.8
Femsa Mexico 814 2.7
Bco Bradesco Brazil 810 2.7
Cemex Mexico 740 2.5
Minas Buenaventura Peru 712 2.4
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 705 2.4
Telecom de Chile Chile 631 2.1
Pao de Acucar Brazil 610 2.1
Sider Nacional Brazil 607 2.0
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 607 2.0
Votorantim Celolose Brazil 592 2.0
Gerdau Brazil 530 1.8
Bco Santander Chile 406 1.4
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 360 1.2
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Announcement of results 29 April 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the
price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may
also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which
may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange