Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 19 May 2003 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2003 SUMMARY Latin American equities had a spectacular rise in April, on a positive global backdrop and regional currency strength. The MSCI Latin American Free was up 15.6% in sterling, buoyed by a nearly 19% gain in both Chile and Brazil. Peruvian and Venezuelan equities lagged, on stagnant commodity prices and political paralysis, respectively. Mexico gained 13.3% in sterling, mainly due to a rebound in the US markets, and Argentina rose 11.0% with the elections going to a second round. The Trust's NAV and the share price were up 15.8% for the month. Our country allocation was positive for the month, however stock selection, primarily in Brazil contributed negatively to returns. Our more defensive positions in names like CVRD, Aracruz and CSN hurt us as did our underweight position in America Movil. Petrobras, the second largest holding in the portfolio, was the largest contributor to performance, gaining on positive sentiment surrounding the Lula administration and lower oil prices. In addition, our overweight positions in TNE, Walmart, Ambev, Banco Itau and Televisa all contributed positively to performance. Given the more positive backdrop surrounding Brazil, the strengthening real and the possibility of lower interest rates, we have been adding to our Brazilian holdings shifting from the dollar exporters to the banks, telephone companies and Petrobras. For the year to date, the Trust is now up 15.3% versus the index of 16.6%. BRAZIL The Brazilian index was up 18.6% in sterling with the currency appreciating 14% for the month. Expectations for progress on the reform front bolstered the market, as did solid trade and economic activity data. Sovereign spreads narrowed dramatically, with the Brazilian C bond trading at 778 bsp above US Treasuries. Inflation remains an issue, however and the Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. With the continuing strengthening in the currency, (the Real is trading below 3 to the US Dollar) we would expect some room to manoeuvre on the interest rate front at the COPOM meeting in May. Lula's popularity remains high, at over 75%, moreover, only 13% of those polled indicated that they disapprove of his administration. On the reform front, state governors endorsed Lula's pension fund reforms, which proposes taxing the benefits of civil servant retirees and establishing a lower ceiling for exemptions. The governors also agreed to support Lula's tax reform proposal which was welcomed by the markets. The March trade surplus came in very strong, nearly $US 1.5 billion, on a sharp rise in exports. In particular, exports of primary goods led the surge, as did semi-manufactured and manufactured goods. Industrial production continues to show improvement with February numbers up over 4% year on year. Lastly, while the COPOM left the Selic rate unchanged at 26.5%, there is growing consensus that prospects for inflation are improving and that the next meeting in May will likely announce a cut. In May, we are watching continued news on the reform front, an increase in capital markets activity by corporate borrowers (at lower spreads), inflation trends and results from the first quarter corporate earnings. Sentiment is still bullish regarding the virtuous circle being created by the Lula administration and the prospects for an increase in equity holdings by the local pension and mutual funds which heretofore have been invested largely in fixed income. MEXICO With an absence of news, the Mexican index rose 13.3% for the month, riding the wave of relief and euphoria in the US post-Iraq war. Moreover, the peso strengthened 3.6% against this despite USD weakness. Domestic interest rates continue to fall, with the 30 day cetes currently below 5%. Economic activity, however, remains mixed although the corporate reporting season generally has shown better than expected results by the larger companies. Quarterly figures for Cemex, Walmex, Televisa, America Movil and Bancomer were all quite solid. Core inflation remains controlled, despite the higher oil-induced headline rate. President Fox has been unable to make any progress on the reform agenda, and market sentiment continues to evolve around the run-up to the July congressional elections. Industrial production numbers have been coming in lower than consensus thus far this year, however the upturn in retail sales suggests that the consumer continues to offset some of the weakness in external demand. In particular, Walmex continues to post good same store sales figures for the first four months of the year. On a positive note, the lower house approved the bankruptcy law which is an important step forward in enabling the banks to recover collateral and to reactivate bank lending in a sustainable way. ARGENTINA The Argentine MSCI rose 11.0% in sterling terms for the month, the third consecutive month of increases. The currency strengthened by 4.3% in the run up to the 27 April presidential election. The market weakened at month-end, however, as the election was tight, with Menem and Kirchner advancing to a second-round run-off on 18 May. After a week of uncertainty, Menem recently pulled out of the race, as most polls showed him 40 percentage points behind Kirchner. Menem's decision to quit the race hurts Argentina's political process and its legitimacy, especially given the presidential circus of 2002. It will now be up to Kirchner to create a credible government and tackle the problems facing the country. While it is true that the macro picture is looking up - the economy is growing (off an incredibly low base), inflation is slowing, and the currency has strengthened, the real issue still remains the government's ability to steer Argentina on a fiscal course leading to long term stability. The debt must be restructured, no small task given the complexity of its make-up, and the banking system must be recapitalised in order to promote long term growth of the economy. Finally, the government must improve confidence in the 'rules of the game' (tax law, property rights, regulatory procedures) in order to encourage private investment. We remain zero-weighted Argentina until there is evidence of a credible government policy for fiscal responsibility and investment options which merit the risk/return trade-off. CHILE The MSCI Chile led the region with an 18.7% return for the month. The currency also strengthened by over 3% in sterling as oil prices moderated, offsetting weaker copper prices. Economic data continued to show the recovery firming with the data beating expectations. Chile's performance was also helped by the positive Argentine market performance. On a negative note was the resignation of Central Bank President Massad over a scandal in which confidential information was leaked to a Chilean brokerage. Well-respected local economist Vittorio Corbo was confirmed as the new President in late April. In a further blow to the Chilean government the United States said 'no timeframe' for signing the free trade agreement, which means that the process will drag on indefinitely. We maintain holdings in a handful of Chilean companies, namely the strongest bank, fixed line telephony companies and CCU. CONCLUSION Despite the run up in Latin equities in the past month, valuations are still compelling, particularly versus other emerging markets, and there is now evidence of a strong decline in risk aversion. We are seeing signs of a shift from a 'vicious to a virtuous' cycle, particularly with Brazil, as Lula continues to positively surprise the market. While we cannot ignore the stronger than expected results coming out of Mexican companies, there is currently less of a catalyst for Mexican growth than Brazil, and we have adjusted the portfolio accordingly. We are mindful of the risks, particularly in Argentina and Venezuela, yet are cautiously optimistic that the worst is behind us and Latin equities will gain in favour as an acceptable alternative for non dedicated investors. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/04/03 31/03/03 30/04/03 31/03/03 65.4p 56.5p 72.7p 65.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/03 31/03/03 Ordinary Shares 53.25p 46.00p Warrants 7.25p 7.00p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.3 million (£27.0 million). Market exposure 30/04/03 31/03/03 % % EQUITIES Brazil 46.2 45.7 Chile 4.3 4.4 Mexico 45.2 46.1 Peru 1.9 2.4 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 97.6 98.6 Net Current Assets 2.4 1.4 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £34.4 million (£30.2 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/04/03 31/03/03 10.0% 11.7% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £33.2 million equal to 98.9% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 3,459 10.3 Petrobras Brazil 3,395 10.1 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,151 9.4 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 2,033 6.1 Ambev Brazil 1,995 5.9 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,950 5.8 Banco Itau Brazil 1,547 4.6 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,410 4.2 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,400 4.2 America Movil Mexico 1,354 4.0 Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,346 4.0 Cemex Mexico 1,173 3.5 Bco Bradesco Brazil 950 2.8 Femsa Mexico 918 2.7 Grupo Modelo Mexico 853 2.5 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 745 2.2 Sider Nacional Brazil 720 2.1 Gerdau Brazil 700 2.1 Pao de Acucar Brazil 693 2.1 Telecom de Chile Chile 688 2.1 Minas Buenaventura Peru 666 2.0 Aracruz Celulose Brazil 600 1.8 Votorantim Celolose Brazil 594 1.8 Bco Santander Chile 479 1.4 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 392 1.2 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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