Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
19 May 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2003
SUMMARY
Latin American equities had a spectacular rise in April, on a positive global
backdrop and regional currency strength. The MSCI Latin American Free was up
15.6% in sterling, buoyed by a nearly 19% gain in both Chile and Brazil.
Peruvian and Venezuelan equities lagged, on stagnant commodity prices and
political paralysis, respectively. Mexico gained 13.3% in sterling, mainly due
to a rebound in the US markets, and Argentina rose 11.0% with the elections
going to a second round.
The Trust's NAV and the share price were up 15.8% for the month. Our country
allocation was positive for the month, however stock selection, primarily in
Brazil contributed negatively to returns. Our more defensive positions in names
like CVRD, Aracruz and CSN hurt us as did our underweight position in America
Movil. Petrobras, the second largest holding in the portfolio, was the largest
contributor to performance, gaining on positive sentiment surrounding the Lula
administration and lower oil prices. In addition, our overweight positions in
TNE, Walmart, Ambev, Banco Itau and Televisa all contributed positively to
performance. Given the more positive backdrop surrounding Brazil, the
strengthening real and the possibility of lower interest rates, we have been
adding to our Brazilian holdings shifting from the dollar exporters to the
banks, telephone companies and Petrobras. For the year to date, the Trust is now
up 15.3% versus the index of 16.6%.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian index was up 18.6% in sterling with the currency appreciating 14%
for the month. Expectations for progress on the reform front bolstered the
market, as did solid trade and economic activity data. Sovereign spreads
narrowed dramatically, with the Brazilian C bond trading at 778 bsp above US
Treasuries. Inflation remains an issue, however and the Central Bank kept
interest rates unchanged. With the continuing strengthening in the currency,
(the Real is trading below 3 to the US Dollar) we would expect some room to
manoeuvre on the interest rate front at the COPOM meeting in May.
Lula's popularity remains high, at over 75%, moreover, only 13% of those polled
indicated that they disapprove of his administration. On the reform front, state
governors endorsed Lula's pension fund reforms, which proposes taxing the
benefits of civil servant retirees and establishing a lower ceiling for
exemptions. The governors also agreed to support Lula's tax reform proposal
which was welcomed by the markets. The March trade surplus came in very strong,
nearly $US 1.5 billion, on a sharp rise in exports. In particular, exports of
primary goods led the surge, as did semi-manufactured and manufactured goods.
Industrial production continues to show improvement with February numbers up
over 4% year on year. Lastly, while the COPOM left the Selic rate unchanged at
26.5%, there is growing consensus that prospects for inflation are improving and
that the next meeting in May will likely announce a cut.
In May, we are watching continued news on the reform front, an increase in
capital markets activity by corporate borrowers (at lower spreads), inflation
trends and results from the first quarter corporate earnings. Sentiment is still
bullish regarding the virtuous circle being created by the Lula administration
and the prospects for an increase in equity holdings by the local pension and
mutual funds which heretofore have been invested largely in fixed income.
MEXICO
With an absence of news, the Mexican index rose 13.3% for the month, riding the
wave of relief and euphoria in the US post-Iraq war. Moreover, the peso
strengthened 3.6% against this despite USD weakness. Domestic interest rates
continue to fall, with the 30 day cetes currently below 5%. Economic activity,
however, remains mixed although the corporate reporting season generally has
shown better than expected results by the larger companies. Quarterly figures
for Cemex, Walmex, Televisa, America Movil and Bancomer were all quite solid.
Core inflation remains controlled, despite the higher oil-induced headline rate.
President Fox has been unable to make any progress on the reform agenda, and
market sentiment continues to evolve around the run-up to the July congressional
elections.
Industrial production numbers have been coming in lower than consensus thus far
this year, however the upturn in retail sales suggests that the consumer
continues to offset some of the weakness in external demand. In particular,
Walmex continues to post good same store sales figures for the first four months
of the year. On a positive note, the lower house approved the bankruptcy law
which is an important step forward in enabling the banks to recover collateral
and to reactivate bank lending in a sustainable way.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI rose 11.0% in sterling terms for the month, the third
consecutive month of increases. The currency strengthened by 4.3% in the run up
to the 27 April presidential election. The market weakened at month-end,
however, as the election was tight, with Menem and Kirchner advancing to a
second-round run-off on 18 May. After a week of uncertainty, Menem recently
pulled out of the race, as most polls showed him 40 percentage points behind
Kirchner. Menem's decision to quit the race hurts Argentina's political process
and its legitimacy, especially given the presidential circus of 2002.
It will now be up to Kirchner to create a credible government and tackle the
problems facing the country. While it is true that the macro picture is looking
up - the economy is growing (off an incredibly low base), inflation is slowing,
and the currency has strengthened, the real issue still remains the government's
ability to steer Argentina on a fiscal course leading to long term stability.
The debt must be restructured, no small task given the complexity of its
make-up, and the banking system must be recapitalised in order to promote long
term growth of the economy. Finally, the government must improve confidence in
the 'rules of the game' (tax law, property rights, regulatory procedures) in
order to encourage private investment. We remain zero-weighted Argentina until
there is evidence of a credible government policy for fiscal responsibility and
investment options which merit the risk/return trade-off.
CHILE
The MSCI Chile led the region with an 18.7% return for the month. The currency
also strengthened by over 3% in sterling as oil prices moderated, offsetting
weaker copper prices. Economic data continued to show the recovery firming with
the data beating expectations. Chile's performance was also helped by the
positive Argentine market performance. On a negative note was the resignation of
Central Bank President Massad over a scandal in which confidential information
was leaked to a Chilean brokerage. Well-respected local economist Vittorio Corbo
was confirmed as the new President in late April. In a further blow to the
Chilean government the United States said 'no timeframe' for signing the free
trade agreement, which means that the process will drag on indefinitely. We
maintain holdings in a handful of Chilean companies, namely the strongest bank,
fixed line telephony companies and CCU.
CONCLUSION
Despite the run up in Latin equities in the past month, valuations are still
compelling, particularly versus other emerging markets, and there is now
evidence of a strong decline in risk aversion. We are seeing signs of a shift
from a 'vicious to a virtuous' cycle, particularly with Brazil, as Lula
continues to positively surprise the market. While we cannot ignore the stronger
than expected results coming out of Mexican companies, there is currently less
of a catalyst for Mexican growth than Brazil, and we have adjusted the portfolio
accordingly. We are mindful of the risks, particularly in Argentina and
Venezuela, yet are cautiously optimistic that the worst is behind us and Latin
equities will gain in favour as an acceptable alternative for non dedicated
investors.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/04/03 31/03/03 30/04/03 31/03/03
65.4p 56.5p 72.7p 65.7p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/03 31/03/03
Ordinary Shares 53.25p 46.00p
Warrants 7.25p 7.00p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.3 million (£27.0 million).
Market exposure
30/04/03 31/03/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 46.2 45.7
Chile 4.3 4.4
Mexico 45.2 46.1
Peru 1.9 2.4
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 97.6 98.6
Net Current Assets 2.4 1.4
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £34.4 million (£30.2 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/04/03 31/03/03
10.0% 11.7%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £33.2 million equal to 98.9% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex Mexico 3,459 10.3
Petrobras Brazil 3,395 10.1
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,151 9.4
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 2,033 6.1
Ambev Brazil 1,995 5.9
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,950 5.8
Banco Itau Brazil 1,547 4.6
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,410 4.2
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,400 4.2
America Movil Mexico 1,354 4.0
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,346 4.0
Cemex Mexico 1,173 3.5
Bco Bradesco Brazil 950 2.8
Femsa Mexico 918 2.7
Grupo Modelo Mexico 853 2.5
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 745 2.2
Sider Nacional Brazil 720 2.1
Gerdau Brazil 700 2.1
Pao de Acucar Brazil 693 2.1
Telecom de Chile Chile 688 2.1
Minas Buenaventura Peru 666 2.0
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 600 1.8
Votorantim Celolose Brazil 594 1.8
Bco Santander Chile 479 1.4
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 392 1.2
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the
price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may
also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which
may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange