Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
17 June 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American markets were flat in May, up 0.1% in sterling terms,
underperforming the Global Emerging Markets and global indices. The three
largest markets underperformed the index: Mexico was down 0.4% for the month,
Brazil down 0.3% and Chile down 0.2%. Venezuela was the best performing market
in the world, up 57.7% in sterling terms, as domestic investors, facing capital
and FX controls fled toward the local stocks with ADRs as a means of accessing
dollars. The US dollar's plunge against the Euro, after comments by the US
Treasury Secretary, contributed to Latin America's weaker performance as well.
Our performance was also flat for the month. Our country allocation was slightly
negative as we did not hold anything in Venezuela, and was underweight Peru,
which was also up 3.4% for the month. Stock selection, however, was positive,
particularly in Brazil, which brought us in line with the index. For the year to
date, the Trust is now up 15.5% versus the index of 16.7%.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI was down 0.3% in sterling with the currency falling over 4%
for the month. Bond spreads also declined for the month. As expected, the
Central Bank conservatively kept the Select rate stable, as inflation
expectations remain high. The core inflation is running approximately 15% year
on year, which is far from the Central Bank's target of 8.5%. Central Bank
President Mereilles stated that inflation was still too high and pledged that
the Bank would remain cautious and watchful of its interest rate policy. This
statement, endorsed by Lula, dashed hopes of a rate cut any time soon.
The government also announced that effective 2 July it would end its policy of
refinancing all dollar-indexed securities used to hedge currency risk upon
maturity. This led to a weakening in the exchange rate, despite government
statements that this new policy did not signal that it wanted a weaker currency.
On a positive note, some initial progress was made on the government's reform
agenda, as Lula continues to build a consensus behind the platform. The PMDB
formally joined forces with the PT in Congress, boosting the chances of passing
structural reforms, including Social Security. With the PMDB, the government now
controls 65% of seats in both houses, more than is needed to pass the reforms.
In addition, the PSB leadership (opposition candidate Garotinho's party) passed
a resolution in support of the government's structural reforms. The Lower house
president announced that Congress will work during its traditional July break so
as to speed up the process of approval of reforms.
On the macro-front, industrial production remained steady, although the
industrial sector declined over 2% for the first quarter. GDP growth for the
quarter, of + 2% was helped primarily by growth in the agricultural sector,
which was up nearly 4%. On the fiscal side, although April's primary fiscal
surplus came in lower than expected, year-to-date the consolidated fiscal
surplus remains comfortably within the IMF target.
The fixed line telephone sector was the big winner for the month, with TNE,
Embratel and Brazil Telecom all outperforming the index. In addition, the steel
company Gerdau saw a nice recovery, as did CVRD which also picked up nicely.
Companies began to report earnings for the quarter, with the Banks, Petrobras
and Ambev's results largely better than expected.
The Trust continues to be overweight Brazil, at 46.6% versus the index of 42.2%,
on the conviction that the country is headed in the right direction. The
emphasis continues to be on the banks, fixed line telephony companies, Petrobras
and selective consumer stocks such as Ambev and CBD.
MEXICO
The Mexican index was down 0.4% for the month with a weaker currency. The story
in Mexico continues to be much of the same - low growth, stable (declining)
inflation, robust reserves, political intransigence, but declining interest
rates generating optimism for equities, long term. Mexico's external accounts
showed a remarkable improvement in the first quarter, helped by the strength in
oil prices. The current account deficit declined to US $2.1 billion, which is
the lowest quarterly deficit since 1997. As in Brazil, the current account
deficit is more than fully covered by the level of foreign direct investment,
which should approach $12 billion for the year. Domestic interest rates are at
all time lows, with the 28 day Cetes rates below 5%. Country debt spreads remain
stable at approximately 185 over US Treasuries.
Early May saw the peso rebound to its strongest level this year, nearly 10:1USD.
The currency began to weaken as the markets began to fully discount the daily
auction of excess FX reserves. Nevertheless, the peso remained significantly
stronger than prior to the FX policy change announcement. GDP grew a lower than
expected 2.3% for the quarter and analysts have been revising their estimates
for the year downward. While the government still maintains a forecast of 3%
growth, most of the street believes growth will be in the 2-2.3% range.
The latest polls indicate the PAN dropped another 3% in May, ahead of the July
Congressional elections, a statistical tie with the PRI. Despite the perceived
good job of management of the economy during a time of world-wide crisis, the
Fox government has earned low marks in pursuing the much needed reforms for long
term growth in the labour, tax and energy sectors.
Despite a lack of dynamism on the macro front, the Trust remains overweight the
market, at 45.6% versus 41.4% for the index, due to the availability of quality
companies trading at historic discounts. Better than expected results for
America Movil propelled that stock higher in May, the second largest stock in
the index. Telmex, at 10.4% of the index, underperformed for the month. Femsa,
Coca-Cola Femsa, Walmart and Kimberly Clark, all of which are owned in the
Trust, all outperformed the index in May.
CHILE
The Chilean market underperformed the index for the month, down 0.2% in
sterling. The peso reversed its recent strengthening and was off 3.6% against
the pound. Economic recovery data remained prominent, as first quarter GDP rose
3.5% year over year. The major drivers were industrial manufacturing which was
up over 6%. Internal demand increased 3.4% which is in line with many analysts'
forecasts for GDP growth for the year. The Central Bank kept rates unchanged at
2.75%, as expected, as inflation fears moderated. Copper prices picked up
slightly, contributing to a better than expected trade balance. Chile's
unemployment rate, however, posted worse than expected results for April, of
8.5%. In his state of the union speech, President Lagos highlighted the need to
fight corruption and an emphasis on spending for infrastructure development and
education. Also of note, the Central Bank, which has control over the
operational limits for local pension funds (AFPs) to invest abroad, raised their
foreign investment limits from 20% to 25%. As of the end of April, the AFPs held
nearly 18% of their assets in foreign securities.
The Trust continues to be under the index weight in this market, 4.2% versus
9.5% with a concentration in the telephone and consumer sector stocks.
ARGENTINA
The Trust currently has no holdings in Argentina, a market which declined 3.2%
in sterling for the month. The Peso weakened nearly 4% against the pound, given
the uncertainty running into Kirchner's presidential inauguration - after Menem
withdrew from the second round. Economic data remains fairly good, with strong
tax collection figures in April and a lower than expected inflation figure
reported. Annualised CPI is now running close to 20%. The stabilising currency
(earlier this year) and still weak consumer demand has kept inflation lower than
expected. President Nestor Kirchner took office on 25 May and announced a
relatively balanced cabinet team. In June, we are watching the government's
initial pronouncements on the upcoming IMF negotiations, financial sector
reform, and utility tariffs.
PERU/VENEZUELA
The Peruvian market closed up 3.4% in sterling even as the currency weakened
over 3% against the pound. The Trust's sole holding, Buenaventura, was up
strongly for the month as gold prices rose nearly 8% in May. The political
situation remains very fragile as President Toledo's popularity is at an all
time low and a state of emergency was declared in the face of national strikes
and social unrest. The economic situation seems more muted, but at risk from
deteriorating politics. We prefer to limit our exposure to the gold and silver
exporter for the time being.
The Venezuelan market was very strong, up nearly 58% in sterling, as the Central
Bank allowed local share conversion to ADR's. Positive sentiment was also
generated by the referendum deal between the opposition and the government.
First quarter GDP figures collapsed, as expected, as oil sector activity fell
48% and non-oil sector declined 21% year over year. Public sector activity fell
35% and private sector demand fell 26%. The Trust has no holdings in Venezuela
and views the May market move as a one time phenomena.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/05/03 30/04/03 31/05/03 30/04/03
65.5p 65.4p 72.8p 72.7p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/05/03 30/04/03
Ordinary Shares 54.50p 53.25p
Warrants 8.75p 7.25p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.3 million (£31.3 million).
Market exposure
31/05/03 30/04/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 46.6 46.2
Chile 4.2 4.3
Mexico 45.6 45.2
Peru 2.1 1.9
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.5 97.6
Net Current Assets 1.5 2.4
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £34.4 million (£34.4 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/05/03 30/04/03
9.7% 10.0%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £33.7 million equal to 99.6% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,354 12.9
Telmex Mexico 3,384 10.0
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,144 9.3
Ambev Brazil 2,107 6.2
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,983 5.9
Banco Itau Brazil 1,742 5.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,726 5.1
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,473 4.3
Cemex Mexico 1,450 4.3
America Movil Mexico 1,438 4.2
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,399 4.1
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,383 4.1
Femsa Mexico 941 2.8
Bco Bradesco Brazil 896 2.6
Grupo Modelo Mexico 839 2.5
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 766 2.3
Gerdau Brazil 734 2.2
Minas Buenaventura Peru 719 2.1
Pao de Acucar Brazil 706 2.1
Telecom de Chile Chile 685 2.0
Sider Nacional Brazil 581 1.7
Bco Santander Chile 467 1.4
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 314 0.9
Cervecerias Unidas Chile 305 0.9
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 191 0.6
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange