Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
22 September 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2003
Summary
The Latin American benchmark was up by 5.8% in August, the fifth consecutive
month of positive performance, however underperforming the GEMs index. Brazil
again led the pack, with MSCI Brazil index up 11.8% in sterling. Chile and Peru
were also up notably, with a positive 6.3% and 6.9% respectively. Mexico was the
main detractor for the month, down 0.1% while Argentina was off 0.5%. August's
performance was led by the utility and materials sectors, with consumer
discretionary and staples lagging.
We outperformed the index for the month, with the NAV up by 6.5%. Overall stock
selection and country allocation were positive, although the overweight in
Mexican consumer names hurt performance slightly. For the year to date, the NAV
is up 32.8% versus the index return of 34.7%.
Brazil
The Brazilian MSCI rose nearly 12% for the month with the currency strengthening
1.8% against sterling. The market was positively surprised by a 250 basis point
interest rate cut and by significant progress on the social security reform
front. In addition, the strong performance by the global basic materials stocks
helped drive natural resource stocks in Brail higher, in particular the steel
companies, pulp producers and CVRD. Economic activity data continues to be weak,
with no growth on the horizon, and second quarter figures from several key
constituencies (Ambev, Petrobras, Electrobras) came in weaker than expected. In
addition to the Trust's overweight holdings in the resource sector, a strong
showing by the two principle fixed line telephony companies and Brazilian
electric utility Cemig contributed to the outperformance. In September, we are
looking for continued momentum stemming from further interest rate cuts, given
the more benign inflationary environment, tax reform progress and an upturn in
domestic economic activity. Industrial production figures have been declining,
given the weak state of the economy; while exports remain fairly robust, imports
have fallen dramatically (down 19% year over year) contributing to a positive
trade surplus.
Mexico
The Mexican market declined slightly for the month, and combined with the weaker
peso (down 2% against sterling) detracted from the Trust's performance. Only 6
of the 25 stocks in the index were in positive territory, with notable declines
in the bellwether stocks such Telmex, Televisa, Walmex, Femsa, and Bancomer.
Domestic interest rates inched higher on the currency weakness, as domestic
economic data (employment in particular) remained stagnant. Unlike previous
upturns, Mexico has yet to benefit from stronger economic data coming out of the
U.S. There were, however, some positive signs for potential fiscal reform, while
the banking system's bad loan saga (Fobaproa) continued to make noise. We do not
believe there is great risk of a reopening of the Fobaproa audit. Industrial
production figures remain weak with June data supporting evidence of a continued
sluggish economy. Finally, unemployment reached its highest level in the last 5
years which makes for a continued gloomy atmosphere.
On the corporate side, news was light with the exception of America Movil's news
of continued expansion into Brazil with the acquisition of Sao Paulo cellular
operator BCP for an attractive price. While we continue to like the long term
outlook for our Mexican consumer plays, and cannot argue against their
inexpensive valuations, we have trimmed our exposure to some of the Mexican
holdings in favour of increasing our stakes in the Brazilian resource and
consumer stocks. Our weighting in Mexico for the first time is below that of
Brazil.
Chile
The Chilean MSCI again outperformed the regional index for the month, up 6.3% in
sterling. The market was bolstered by the 3.6% gain against the pound. We
continue to be underweight the index, at 3.2% versus 10.6%, namely due to the
lack of quality names with any degree of liquidity. Most of the large gainers
for the month were locally listed stocks which are largely unowned by
foreigners. Our stock selection was negative in August, as both CTC and Banco
Santander were negative for the month. The market performance was driven by the
ongoing domestic economic recovery and by stronger commodity prices (as in
Brazil), much of which we now believe is priced in the market. In addition, the
market surged on the Central Bank's decision against an interest rate hike for
now as inflation now appears under control. We continue to watch economic
recovery trends and the sustainability of commodity prices (particularly copper)
and are looking for selective new investments which meet our valuation and
liquidity criteria.
Argentina
The Argentine MSCI fell slightly for the month, down 0.5% with the currency
weakening. The market was driven lower by increased political noise ahead of the
IMF negotiations. In addition, tension between President Kirchner and his
vice-president over treatment of the former military officials and tariff hikes,
and the close race for Mayor of Buenos Aires raised concern. While there is some
optimism on prospects for an IMF deal (albeit without new money) and
unemployment figures continue to decline (although at 15.6% they are still quite
high). We continue to avoid the market as we cannot justify the risk to equity
holders before most of the restructuring of corporate balance sheets has taken
place.
Peru / Venezuela
The Peruvian market had another good month, up 6.9% in sterling terms with the
New Sol strengthening 1.8% against sterling. Our sole holding, Buenaventura,
contributed positively to performance as the Trust has an overweight position
and it was up nearly 12% for the month. The index was driven higher by stronger
gold prices and the positive sentiment in basic commodities, of which Peru is a
producer (gold, copper). President Toledo's popularity showed some signs of
recovery and economic data appears brighter. We would maintain our overweight
position in the gold company, however find few other options to invest.
Venezuela was also up for the month, as concrete political progress toward a
referendum was made. As in the past, we cannot find any companies worth the
political risk until the Chavez situation is resolved. Given its small weighting
in the index (1.2%), we do not feel the Trust is at a material disadvantage by
not investing in Venezuela.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/08/03 31/07/03 31/08/03 31/07/03
75.3p 70.7p 80.5p 76.9p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/08/03 31/07/03
Ordinary Shares 62.30p 58.50p
Warrants 10.75p 10.00p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £36.0 million (£33.8 million).
Market exposure
31/08/03 31/07/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 51.3 47.4
Chile 3.2 3.5
Mexico 43.7 47.7
Peru 2.1 2.0
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 100.3 100.6
Net Current Assets (0.3) (0.6)
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £39.1 million (£36.9 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/08/03 31/07/03
8.8% 9.2%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £38.9 million equal to 99.0% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,716 12.0
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,086 7.8
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,022 7.7
Telmex Mexico 2,836 7.2
America Movil Mexico 2,530 6.4
Ambev Brazil 2,416 6.1
Cemex Mexico 2,022 5.1
Banco Itau Brazil 2,013 5.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,944 5.0
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,919 4.9
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,880 4.8
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,457 3.7
Femsa Mexico 1,080 2.7
Bco Bradesco Brazil 994 2.5
Minas Buenaventura Peru 845 2.2
Gerdau Brazil 831 2.1
Telecom de Chile Chile 790 2.0
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 766 2.0
Sider Nacional Brazil 741 1.9
Grupo Modelo Mexico 734 1.9
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 617 1.6
Pao de Acucar Brazil 577 1.5
Bco Santander Chile 464 1.2
Telesp Celular Brazil 307 0.8
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 300 0.8
Financial Calendar
Half-year 31 August 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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