Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
16 October 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American benchmark was down 1.8% in September, after five months of
positive performance as investors took a breather and profit taking ensued.
Argentina was the big winner for the month, up 7.0% in sterling, however its
representation in the index is insignificant, at 3.0%. Chile was also up
strongly, by 4.8%, and as it represents 11.3% of the index, is far more
important. Of the big markets, both Brazil and Mexico were down 3.1% which hurt
performance of the Trust as we are overweight in both of these markets. There
was no significant negative news in the big markets, however nearly all Latin
currencies declined against the pound sterling for the month. The Mexican peso
was off 4.5%, the Brazilian Real down 2.6% and the Argentine peso off 3.8%. The
Chilean peso was flat for the month.
The Trust underperformed the index for the month, with the NAV down 2.9%.
Country allocation was the biggest detractor, and stock selection was fairly
neutral (positive stock selection in Mexico, negative in Brazil). For the year
to date, the NAV for the Trust is up 28.9% versus the index of 32.3%.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI declined over 3% for the month with the currency weakening by
2.6% against sterling. The market was positively impacted by a further 2%
interest rate cut and by the lower house's passage of the tax reform bill.
Separately, the social security reform bill was approved at the committee level
in the Senate and is expected to go to vote in October. In addition, the Lula
administration circulated a draft proposal for a new regulatory framework, which
proposed diminishing the role of the agencies in charge of regulating
electricity, oil/gas and telecoms. The 12-month inflation rate declined to
15.1%, the lowest level since January. Industrial production figures continue to
show little improvement, with declines in durable, consumer and capital goods
production, indicating continued weakness in the internal economy. On a positive
note, strong export demand has propped up the external accounts and the country
should post its first current account surplus since the advent of the Real Plan
in 1994. Profit taking among investors after the market's 8 month rise led to
declines in several bell weather stocks such as Ambev, Brasil Telecom,
Petrobras, Bradesco, Itau, and Aracruz, all owned in the portfolio.
MEXICO
The Mexican market declined again for the month, falling 3.1%. Political noise
was high, but overall positive, with a well received State of the Union speech
by Fox and cabinet reshuffle. Fiscal and energy reform remain uncertain.
Economic data continues to be sluggish, and with unemployment rising, lower oil
prices (Mexico's chief export) and weaker USD, sentiment remains bearish. The
Peso recovered somewhat from oversold levels earlier in the month, but closed
down 4.5% against the pound. Our performance was hampered by the overweight
position in Mexico, however stock selection was mildly positive. Until the US
shows signs of economic recovery, Mexico will be hindered by its tie to US
industrial production. Our Mexican holdings have been pared down slightly, in
favour of increasing our holdings in Brazil and potential opportunities in
Chile.
On the corporate side, news was again light with the exception of America
Movil's news of further acquisitions in Central America, this after their much
larger acquisition in Brazil of BCP the end of August.
CHILE
The Chilean MSCI again outperformed the regional index for the month, up 4.8% in
sterling terms. In addition, the peso was the sole Latin currency to hold its
own against the pound. We continue to be underweight the index, at 4.6% versus
11.3%, however the manager has begun to add to positions and increase the
holdings in the past few weeks. The Chilean economy is being bolstered by
continued good outlook for its main export, copper, and signs of a pick up in
domestic demand. Moreover, historic low interest rates and continued support for
the currency create a more positive environment for equities.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI rose for the month, after Argentina reached a three year
agreement with the IMF. In its first proposal to the debt holders after having
defaulted on its debt, Argentina proposed a 75% haircut on its principle and
said that there will not be any interest accrual allowed since it went into
default in December 2001. Predictably, the proposal was rejected outright by the
investment community. Despite some signs of a stabilisation in the market, the
prospects for companies, given the yet to be restructured debt, gives us reason
to avoid Argentine equities.
PERU / VENEZUELA
The Peruvian market had another good month, up 1.0% in sterling however the New
Sol weakened over 5% against the pound. Our sole holding, Buenaventura,
contributed positively to performance as the Trust has an overweight position
and it was up for the month. The Peruvian economy is posting decent growth
figures this year on the back of strong mining activity.
Venezuela was also up strongly for the month, up 5.2%, however its
representation in the index is negligible. Economic activity declined over 9% in
the second quarter, continuing to reflect the impact of the general strike the
beginning of the year. For the first half of the year, the Venezuelan economy
contracted by over 18%. We continue to be uninvested in Venezuela given the
macroeconomic scenario and lack of quality companies.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/09/03 31/08/03 30/09/03 31/08/03
73.1p 75.3p 78.8p 80.5p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/09/03 31/08/03
Ordinary Shares 64.00p 62.30p
Warrants 12.30p 10.75p
Discount/(Premium) % 12.4 17.3
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £35.0 million (£36.0 million).
Market exposure
30/09/03 31/08/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 50.3 51.3
Chile 4.6 3.2
Mexico 41.8 43.7
Peru 2.2 2.1
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.9 100.3
Net Current Assets 1.1 (0.3)
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0)
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £38.0 million (£39.1 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/09/03 31/08/03
8.6% 8.8%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £36.0 million equal to 95.7% of total
portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,313 11.5
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,235 8.6
America Movil Mexico 3,046 8.1
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,860 7.6
Telmex Mexico 2,170 5.8
Ambev Brazil 1,995 5.3
Cemex Mexico 1,921 5.1
Banco Itau Brazil 1,810 4.8
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,775 4.7
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,746 4.7
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,731 4.6
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,079 2.9
Femsa Mexico 1,060 2.8
Sider Nacional Brazil 855 2.3
Minas Buenaventura Peru 834 2.2
Bco Bradesco Brazil 759 2.0
Gerdau Brazil 737 2.0
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 629 1.7
Pao de Acucar Brazil 527 1.4
Telecom de Chile Chile 521 1.4
Grupo Modelo Mexico 498 1.3
Enersis Chile 487 1.3
Bco Santander Chile 485 1.3
Cemig Cia Brazil 464 1.2
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 422 1.1
Financial Calendar
Half-year results announced 22 October 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange