Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
24 February 2004
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2004
SUMMARY
Latin American equities showed mixed performance for January with Argentina,
Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela posting gains while Brazil and Chile were off for
the month. The Trust's NAV was down 1.3% for the month, slightly worse than the
index return of -1.12% due to the leverage. Stock selection was actually
positive in all three big markets, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. This did not
compensate for our overweight position in Brazil, however, which market was down
by more than 6% in sterling, largely accounting for the underperformance.
The month began on a positive note, but quickly turned weaker as the regional
equity markets digested the meaning of the latest US and Brazilian monetary
policy meetings. All regional currencies finished down for the month, with the
Brazilian real off 3.5% against the pound, the Mexican peso down by 60 basis
points and the Chilean peso off .66%. On a positive note, most commodity prices
surged to new highs. In January, copper prices rallied to levels not seen since
1997 (good for Chile and Brazil) oil prices to levels not seen since last March
(good for Mexico) and gold to new highs as well. The interpretation that the US
Fed will begin to raise rates later this year, coupled with the decision not to
lower rates in Brazil because of inflationary concerns, triggered the sell-off.
Looking ahead, we do not believe that the regional equity market rally is over,
more that this is a period of profit taking and reassessing upside.
A further sign of regional stability was the sizeable issuance of debt by Latin
sovereigns and corporates, which took advantage of unprecedented low levels of
sovereign spreads. Approximately $US 6 billion in new Latin debt was issued in
January.
From a macroeconomic and political standpoint, attention in Argentina was mostly
focused on the approval of the IMF following the first performance review under
the three-year standby program. As mentioned, the only noteworthy event in
Brazil was the unexpected upholding of the Selic rate at 16.5%, ending seven
consecutive months of monetary policy easing. The surprising 50 basis point
interest rate cut and the upgrading of its sovereign credit rating from A-to A
were the dominant themes in Chile. In Mexico, the lack of fiscal reform drew the
most attention.
In the Andean countries, the main focal points were the release of the official
referendum results in Colombia and the initiation of the signature verification
process for a recall referendum on Chavez in Venezuela. We do not have
investments in either of these countries.
Brazil's industrial production figures for November indicated a lower than
expected .8%, fuelling the notion that growth has not yet kicked in. Industrial
production registered a mere .3% increase year on year. On a positive note, the
country posted a $US 2.8 billion trade surplus in December and an impressive $US
24 billion figure for 2003. Brazil also posted its first annual current account
surplus in 11 years in 2003, recording a surplus of .8% of GDP or $US 4 billion.
Furthermore, the Brazilian Central Bank announced that it will start purchasing
foreign exchange in the local spot market to rebuild net reserves.
As a testimony to Brazil's improved creditworthiness, the Brazilian Treasury
successfully issued $US 1.5 billion in 30 year bonds in the international
markets at a spread of 376 bps over US Treasuries. Finally, President Lula
implemented the first cabinet changes of his administration, replacing nine
ministers including those in communications and the head of he economic and
social development council. The reshuffle, which was supposed to accommodate the
PMDB into the governing coalition was broader than expected but did not include
any of the key members of the economic cabinet.
In Mexico, the government reported year end inflation figures of 3.98% for 2003,
the lowest level since 1968. November economic activity was released indicating
a better than expected result, raising optimism on a resynchronization with the
U.S. industrial cycle. The December unemployment rate was better than expected,
and as expected the Central Bank kept monetary policy on hold at its two January
policy meetings. Like Brazil, the Mexican Treasury successfully issued a $US 1
billion five year global bond at a floating rate above Libor. The country also
placed a well received 20 year Sterling 500 Million bond in the UK market. The
bond was placed at 190 bps above equivalent UK Treasuries.
Gearing has not added value as the market declined. We have increased gearing
into this reduction and remain positive on the markets over a six month view.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/01/04 31/12/03 31/01/04 31/12/03
81.3p 82.4p 85.3p 86.1p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/01/04 31/12/03
Ordinary Shares 71.00p 70.75p
Warrants 18.25p 14.75p
Discount/(Premium) % 12.7 14.1
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.9 million (£39.4 million).
Market exposure
31/01/04 31/12/03
%) %
EQUITIES
Brazil 52.9 54.6
Chile 9.8 7.1
Mexico 35.2 35.1
Peru 1.6 2.5
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.5 99.3
Net Current Assets 0.5 0.7
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £45.5 million (£43.6 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/01/04 31/12/03
17.1% 10.6%
===== =====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £40.1 million equal to 88.5% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 5,613 12.4
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 4,131 9.1
America Movil Mexico 3,545 7.8
Telmex Mexico 2,609 5.8
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,368 5.2
Banco Itau Brazil 2,143 4.7
Ambev Brazil 1,824 4.0
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,768 3.9
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,709 3.8
Cemex Mexico 1,449 3.2
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,282 2.8
Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 1,223 2.7
Bco Santander Chile 1,019 2.3
Brasil Telecom Brazil 962 2.1
Enersis Chile 940 2.1
Telecom de Chile Chile 914 2.0
Sider Nacional Brazil 843 1.9
Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 832 1.8
Femsa Mexico 818 1.8
Antofagasta Chile 719 1.6
Minas Buenaventura Peru 707 1.6
Embraer Emp Brazil 688 1.5
Gerdau Brazil 665 1.5
Telesp Celular Brazil 662 1.5
Votorantim Celulos Brazil 621 1.4
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold
Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors
should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as
well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares
traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The
use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV),
meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the
Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction
of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if
the fall in value is sufficiently large.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange