Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
24 May 2004
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2004
SUMMARY
Latin American equities posted a dramatic negative return in April,
underperforming the US equity markets and the IFCI Asia, however outperforming
the IFCI EMEA. The index was off 7.7% in sterling terms, despite all major
Latin currencies strengthening against the pound. Fears surrounding interest
rates in the US, coupled with higher oil prices and a China slowdown hit
emerging markets hard, with particular emphasis on commodity producers like
Brazil. Prices for most of the major commodities, such as aluminum, copper,
silver, gold, lead and zinc all posted their worst results in months, along with
the expectations for global steel prices due to the fear of declining Chinese
imports. Within Latin America, Colombia was the big winner for the month, up
14.5% in sterling terms, while Brazil was the key detractor, down 12.2%. The
Mexican and Chilean MSCI indices, whilst outperforming the general Latin index,
both fell by 3.9% and 0.4% respectively.
Our NAV was down 9.8% for the month, hurt primarily by an overweight position
in Brazil (since reduced to below index weight), the absence of stocks in
Colombia, and the use of leverage. Our overweight position in Mexico
contributed positively however this was not enough to offset the negative effect
of Brazil. Unlike previous months, stock selection was also negative, hurt by a
combination of overweight positions in the natural resource sector, including
steel, and a lower than market weight in Telmex, which outperformed.
From the macroeconomic and political standpoints, the market was focused in
Brazil on the 25 basis point rate cut, and the proposal of an 8.3% nominal
increase in the minimum wage, which was better than expected. The Central Banks
of Chile and Colombia left their interest rates unchanged while Mexican
officials increased the level of the corto daily restrictive mechanism in an
unexpected move. In Argentina, the market continued to be focused on the energy
crisis, while in Venezuela attention was paid to the validation of signatures
which would allow a recall referendum on President Chavez. The government of
Peru successfully placed a $US 500MM 12-year sovereign bond, effectively
finishing its financing needs for the year. First quarter results were largely
reported, with generally better than expected results, particularly for Mexican
corporates.
The MSCI Brazil fell 12.2% in sterling terms, lagging the region, on rising
global risk premia and falling commodity prices. Despite a widening of
sovereign spreads for the month, the Brazilian real closed up 2.5% for the month
against the pound. Trade data remained strong for the month, with a March trade
surplus of $US 2.6 billion, higher than expected, and inflation decelerated for
the month, a welcome relief. Industrial production figures for February were
released which showed a strengthening trend year over year, however were down
from January figures. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 12.8%.
The key detractors to performance for the month were the our overweight position
in natural resource stocks such as Aracruz, Petrobras, CVRD, CSN, and Usiminas,
the banks Itau, Bradesco and Unibanco and the aircraft manufacturer Embraer.
Disappointing results by CBD, the retailer, and Telesp Celular also contributed
to the decline in our NAV for the month.
In Mexico, our stock selection was hampered by overweight positions in America
Movil, which suffered from its Brazil exposure, the commodity producer Grupo
Mexico and Alfa, which fell in sympathy with the commodities rout, Consorcio
Ara, the homebuilder, and Femsa, whose results fell short of analysts'
estimates. We also suffered from overweight positions in several Chilean names
which underperformed the Chilean index, including Banco Santander, CTC (for the
second month) and Soquimich.
In previous monthly corrections of this magnitude, Latin American markets have
proven to be attractive investments over the long term. We are concerned,
however, with Brazil's particular vulnerability to higher risk premia
(geopolitical, interest rate, commodity prices) and the pre-existing investor
overweights in the country. We have thus trimmed our Brazilian exposure, adding
selectively to Chile and Mexico, and are reducing our leverage to zero until we
have a view on a more normalised global situation.
Subsequent to the month end we have significantly reduced gearing due to our
concern on rising oil prices and the deteriorating geo-political situation.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/04/04 31/03/04 30/04/04 31/03/04
76.8p 85.1p 81.7p 88.2p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/04/04 31/03/04
Ordinary Shares 72.50p 71.25p
Warrants 15.00p 17.25p
Discount/(Premium) % 5.6 16.3
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £36.7 million (£40.7 million).
Market exposure
30/04/04 31/03/04
% %
EQUITIES
Argentina 0.4 0.4
Brazil 43.2 49.1
Chile 9.6 8.5
Mexico 42.0 38.6
Peru 1.4 1.6
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 96.6 98.2
Net Current Assets 3.4 1.8
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £40.7 million (£44.5 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/04/04 31/03/04
10.9% 9.5%
===== =====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £33.8 million equal to 86.0% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,848 12.3
America Movil Mexico 3,555 9.0
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,497 8.9
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,723 6.9
Telefonos de Mexico Mexico 2,657 6.8
Cemex Mexico 2,125 5.4
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,888 4.8
Femsa Mexico 1,384 3.5
Bco Santander Chile 986 2.5
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 977 2.5
Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 928 2.4
Emp Nac Electric Chile 859 2.2
Banco Itau Brazil 838 2.1
Sider Nacional Brazil 718 1.8
Alfa Mexico 648 1.6
Enersis Chile 614 1.6
Votorantim Celulose Brazil 575 1.5
Antofagasta Chile 564 1.4
Minas Buenaventura Peru 549 1.4
Grupo Mexico Mexico 500 1.3
Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 497 1.3
Usiminas Brazil 483 1.2
Brazil Telecom Brazil 468 1.2
Consorcio Mexico 462 1.2
G.F. Banorte Mexico 459 1.2
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, One Appold
Street, London EC2A 2UU, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors
should note that the price of shares and the income from them can go down as
well as up and are not guaranteed and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC may invest in shares
traded in emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. The
use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV),
meaning that a relatively small movement either down or up in the value of the
Trust's total assets will result in a magnified movement in the same direction
of that NAV. In extreme circumstances, investors may get nothing back at all if
the fall in value is sufficiently large.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange